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FBIZ vs TSBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Business Financial Services (FBIZ) vs. Timberland Bancorp (TSBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FBIZ is a Wisconsin-based commercial bank with a business-lending focus, while TSBK is a community bank concentrated in Washington State.
- FBIZ has delivered stronger recent balance-sheet momentum, including double-digit loan and core deposit growth, while TSBK has shown steadier but more modest expansion.
- TSBK trades at a lower trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, reflecting its smaller scale and geographic concentration, whereas FBIZ commands a premium tied to its faster growth and fee-income diversification.
- Both companies carry concentrated credit exposure to commercial real estate, though FBIZ has faced a larger specific non-performing relationship in recent quarters.
- Analyst sentiment skews more constructive on FBIZ, while TSBK has attracted more neutral, early-stage coverage.
Introduction
Regional and community banks can look similar on the surface, yet their growth profiles, loan mixes, and risk exposures often diverge sharply. This stock comparison examines two U.S. banking franchises — FBIZ (First Business Financial Services, Inc.) and TSBK (Timberland Bancorp, Inc.) — to help traders and investors understand their relative performance and market positioning. FBIZ operates as a commercially oriented business bank headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin, while TSBK functions as a traditional community bank serving consumers and businesses across western Washington. Investors evaluating small-cap financials for growth, income, or value may find this side-by-side review useful when weighing the two names in the current market environment.
FBIZ Overview and Recent Performance
First Business Financial Services, Inc. is the bank holding company for First Business Bank, a business-focused lender that provides commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, commercial real estate financing, treasury management, and private wealth services. The company reported a notably strong start to its fiscal 2026, with loans rising roughly 15% and core deposits up about 14% year over year, supported by activity in its Madison, Milwaukee, and Kansas City markets. Fee income also climbed nearly 16% year over year, led by record revenue from its private wealth division.
Recent market activity has reflected a mix of enthusiasm and caution. The company has a record of beating earnings estimates, and its net interest margin (NIM) — the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits — has held in the mid-3.5% range. However, analyst views have become more mixed in recent weeks, with one firm trimming its price target while another maintained a Buy rating. A specific commercial real estate non-performing relationship has drawn scrutiny, though management has noted appraisals above carrying value. On balance, FBIZ's growth-oriented commercial model and diversified fee income have underpinned relative performance, even as credit costs remain a monitored factor.
TSBK Overview and Recent Performance
Timberland Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for Timberland Bank, a community-oriented institution founded in 1915 that operates roughly 23 branches across Washington State. Its lending is concentrated in real estate-secured loans — including residential construction, one-to-four-family residential, multifamily, and commercial real estate — alongside commercial business and Small Business Administration (SBA) lending. In its most recent fiscal quarter, TSBK reported net income of about $7.7 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, with a NIM of 3.85% and total assets exceeding $2 billion.
The bank has demonstrated consistent, if measured, growth, with deposits and net loans rising modestly year over year and a quarterly cash dividend increased 3% to $0.30 per share. TSBK's shares have gained meaningfully over the trailing year, supported by strong capital ratios and disciplined risk management. Recent market activity has been constructive, though the stock's geographic concentration in Washington State and a slight uptick in non-performing assets — driven largely by a single commercial real estate relationship — remain key watchpoints. A recent initiation of coverage with a Neutral rating highlights the balance between TSBK's steady fundamentals and its rising funding-cost and credit pressures.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between the two banks lies in their business models. FBIZ is a commercially driven institution with meaningful exposure to C&I lending and fee-generating services such as treasury management and private wealth, giving it a more diversified revenue mix and faster recent growth. TSBK, by comparison, is a classic community bank anchored in real estate lending, with a steadier growth trajectory and a stronger emphasis on residential and multifamily loans.
On valuation, TSBK trades at a lower trailing P/E multiple — roughly in the high-single to low-double digits — reflecting its smaller market capitalization and single-state footprint. FBIZ carries a somewhat higher multiple, consistent with its faster balance-sheet growth and diversified income. On momentum, FBIZ's double-digit loan and deposit expansion stands out, while TSBK's relative strength has come from consistency and capital discipline rather than rapid growth. Risk profiles also differ: FBIZ's credit attention has centered on a specific commercial real estate relationship, while TSBK faces geographic concentration and gradually rising funding costs. Market sentiment currently appears more constructive toward FBIZ, which holds a stronger consensus rating, while TSBK's coverage remains thinner and more neutral.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FBIZ in the current environment. The bank's stronger loan and deposit growth, diversified fee income, and more constructive analyst sentiment suggest a more favorable combination of momentum and catalyst support. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive one — TSBK's lower valuation, higher NIM, and disciplined capital management represent genuine strengths that could appeal to value-oriented and income-focused investors. The relative trade-off remains one of faster growth and diversification versus steadier, lower-multiple stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FBIZ is a Buy and TSBK is a StrongBuy.
FBIZ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FBIZ turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where FBIZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FBIZ as a result. In 57 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
FBIZ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FBIZ advanced for three days, in 186 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for FBIZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FBIZ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
FBIZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FBIZ entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FBIZ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 55 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.583) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.052) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.130) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.301) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TSBK's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TSBK turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TSBK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TSBK as a result. In 51 of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
TSBK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSBK advanced for three days, in 182 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TSBK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 5 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 33%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
TSBK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TSBK entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSBK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.336) is normal, around the industry mean (1.268). P/E Ratio (11.706) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.560) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.405) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FBIZ | TSBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 85 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 55 Fair valued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 18 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FBIZ's Valuation (55) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as TSBK (72) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as TSBK (19) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's SMR Rating (31) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as TSBK (46) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as TSBK (42) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
FBIZ's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as TSBK (18) in the Savings Banks industry. This means that FBIZ’s stock grew similarly to TSBK’s over the last 12 months.
| FBIZ | TSBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 9 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 46% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 44% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FBIZ’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TSBK’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FBIZ’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSBK’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FBIZ’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSBK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FBIZ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TSBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FBIZ (@Regional Banks) experienced а +3.45% price change this week, while TSBK (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +2.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
FBIZ is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TSBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+2.71% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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TSBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSBK has been closely correlated with FBIZ. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSBK jumps, then FBIZ could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSBK | 100% | +2.96% | ||
| FBIZ - TSBK | 76% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| THFF - TSBK | 74% Closely correlated | +2.13% | ||
| CTBI - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +4.04% | ||
| IBCP - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.70% | ||
| FMBH - TSBK | 73% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
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