FCG
Price
$29.02Alerts
Change
+$0.62 (+2.18%)
Updated
Nov 11, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
600.32M
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
VDE
Price
$176.42Alerts
Change
+$3.39 (+1.96%)
Updated
Nov 11, 04:59 PM (EDT)
Net Assets
10.33B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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FCG vs VDE

FCG vs VDE Comparison Chart in %
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A.I.Advisor
Oct 28, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) vs. Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)

Key Takeaways

  • Different mandates: FCG is a concentrated, equal-weighted natural gas strategy, while VDE is a broad, market-cap-weighted U.S. energy fund.
  • Holdings breadth: FCG holds roughly 40–45 companies focused on natural gas exploration, production, and midstream, whereas VDE spans roughly 110–115 names across the full energy value chain.
  • Cost gap: FCG carries a net expense ratio of about 0.59%, compared with VDE's 0.09% — a material difference for long-term investors.
  • Concentration profile: VDE is top-heavy in integrated majors such as XOM and CVX, while FCG distributes weight more evenly across mid-cap producers and midstream operators.
  • Risk and volatility: FCG's narrower focus and smaller-cap tilt generally imply higher volatility, while VDE offers comparatively lower single-stock and sub-industry concentration.

Introduction

Investors evaluating energy sector exposure often encounter two funds that look similar at first glance but serve very different purposes. FCG, the First Trust Natural Gas ETF, targets companies tied specifically to natural gas and midstream infrastructure. VDE, the Vanguard Energy ETF, delivers diversified exposure across the entire U.S. energy industry. Rather than competing directly, these ETFs represent distinct risk-reward trade-offs within the same broad sector: one offers a concentrated thematic bet, while the other provides low-cost, diversified access. Understanding their structural differences is essential for making informed allocation decisions in today's commodity-driven environment.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) Overview

The First Trust Natural Gas ETF tracks the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index, an equal-weighted benchmark composed of exchange-listed companies that derive a substantial portion of revenues from natural gas exploration, production, and midstream activities. The fund typically holds roughly 40–45 securities and is passively managed, rebalancing periodically to maintain equal weighting.

Its top holdings include WES (Western Midstream Partners), HESM (Hess Midstream), EOG (EOG Resources), COP (ConocoPhillips), and FANG (Diamondback Energy), alongside names like DVN, EQT, and OXY. Energy accounts for virtually all of the portfolio, with meaningful exposure to midstream master limited partnerships (MLPs — publicly traded partnerships that pass income through to investors) and mid-cap exploration and production companies. The net expense ratio is approximately 0.59%.

Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) Overview

The Vanguard Energy ETF tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index, a market-capitalization-weighted benchmark covering large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. energy companies as classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). With roughly 110–115 holdings, VDE spans the entire energy value chain, including integrated majors, refiners, oilfield services, midstream operators, and independent producers.

Its largest positions are XOM (Exxon Mobil), CVX (Chevron), and COP (ConocoPhillips), followed by refiners such as MPC (Marathon Petroleum), VLO (Valero), and PSX (Phillips 66), plus services names like SLB and BKR (Baker Hughes). Because it is cap-weighted, VDE is heavily influenced by the integrated majors, which together represent a substantial share of assets. Its net expense ratio is just 0.09%, among the lowest in the category.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

Both funds operate within a U.S. energy sector shaped by shifting commodity prices, global demand trends, and capital discipline across producers. Natural gas has drawn renewed attention from rising electricity demand tied to data centers, liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, and weather-driven consumption, while crude oil remains sensitive to geopolitical supply risks and OPEC+ output decisions. Consolidation through mergers and acquisitions has also reshaped the independent producer landscape, altering the roster of names within natural-gas-focused funds.

Regulatory and macro factors — including interest rate expectations, which influence both borrowing costs and the relative appeal of income-generating midstream assets — continue to drive sector rotation. Risks include commodity-price volatility, demand cyclicality, and the ongoing energy transition, which pressures valuations and long-term capital allocation across the industry.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Over recent weeks and market cycles, both ETFs have generally participated in the broader energy upswing, though their drivers differ. VDE's performance has leaned heavily on its integrated majors and refiners, whose diversified revenue streams tend to moderate drawdowns during commodity pullbacks. FCG, by contrast, has been more sensitive to natural gas pricing dynamics and midstream fundamentals, resulting in a higher-volatility profile.

In periods when natural gas prices rally, FCG's concentrated exposure and equal-weight structure can amplify upside relative to the broader sector. Conversely, when crude-led strength dominates or risk appetite shifts toward large, liquid franchises, VDE's cap-weighted, diversified approach tends to show more relative resilience. For investors, the trade-off centers on targeted natural gas beta versus broad, low-cost sector participation.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your energy sector watchlist with data-driven signals.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on structural strength, cost efficiency, and diversification, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VDE for most long-term investors, given its materially lower expense ratio, broader holdings base, and lower single-name concentration — characteristics that support more consistent relative positioning across market cycles. That said, when natural gas momentum is strong and trend consistency favors midstream and exploration and production names, the AI may tilt toward FCG for tactical, higher-beta exposure. The preferred choice therefore depends on whether the objective is diversified core energy exposure or a targeted natural gas theme, and would be assessed probabilistically against prevailing trend and volatility signals.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
FCG vs. VDE commentary
Nov 12, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FCG is a Hold and VDE is a Hold.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for FCG with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

Momentum Indicator for FCG turns negative, indicating new downward trend

FCG saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 93 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 82 of the 93 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 88%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FCG turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.

FCG moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for FCG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FCG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FCG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FCG advanced for three days, in 339 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

FCG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 258 of 288 cases where FCG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VDE with price predictions
Nov 10, 2026

Momentum Indicator for VDE turns negative, indicating new downward trend

VDE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 77 of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 89%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VDE turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 44 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.

VDE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for VDE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 15 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VDE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VDE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a +1.02% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VDE advanced for three days, in 346 of 378 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

VDE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 297 of 335 cases where VDE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
FCGVDE
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
88%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
89%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
85%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
86%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
80%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
84%
Bearish Trend 2 days ago
78%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Declines
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
87%
Bearish Trend 7 days ago
81%
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
90%
Bullish Trend 2 days ago
89%
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FCG and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FCG has been closely correlated with OVV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FCG jumps, then OVV could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To FCG
1D Price
Change %
FCG100%
+1.61%
OVV - FCG
91%
Closely correlated
+1.82%
MTDR - FCG
91%
Closely correlated
+1.63%
DVN - FCG
91%
Closely correlated
+2.38%
PR - FCG
90%
Closely correlated
+0.93%
EOG - FCG
89%
Closely correlated
+2.08%
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