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FCNCA vs ONB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) vs. Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) holds a significantly larger market capitalization of approximately $24 billion compared to Old National Bancorp's (ONB) $9.4 billion, reflecting broader scale in regional banking.
- ONB has outperformed year-to-date with gains around 9%, surpassing FCNCA's 4% rise amid recent market volatility in regional banks.
- Both stocks recently beat Q4 2025 earnings expectations, with FCNCA reporting adjusted EPS of $51.27 and ONB EPS of $0.62, boosting short-term sentiment.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside potential: 8% for FCNCA to $2,227 and 13% for ONB to $27.36, driven by solid ROE (return on equity) around 9-10% for both.
- ONB exhibits higher quarterly revenue growth at 41% year-over-year, contrasting FCNCA's 6%, highlighting differing growth trajectories.
Introduction
Both FCNCA and ONB operate as regional banks, offering retail and commercial services amid a stabilizing interest rate environment and ongoing sector consolidation. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking exposure to U.S. regional banking, where balance sheet strength, net interest income (NII, revenue from interest-bearing assets minus costs), and deposit growth drive performance. Traders monitoring momentum may favor recent outperformers, while long-term holders prioritize profitability metrics like ROE and dividend yields. With upcoming Q1 2026 earnings, relative performance sheds light on market positioning in this competitive landscape.
FCNCA Overview and Recent Performance
First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) is a diversified regional bank holding company with operations in retail, commercial banking, and specialized railcar leasing. Headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina, it serves customers nationwide through segments including general banking, commercial services, and rail financing. In recent market activity, FCNCA shares have traded around the middle of their 52-week range ($1,624–$2,232), reflecting resilience post its strong Q4 2025 results where adjusted EPS beat estimates by 17% and revenue grew modestly. Sentiment has been supported by $900 million in capital returns via repurchases and a focus on efficiency, though shares experienced volatility amid broader regional bank pressures from interest rate shifts. Profit margins stand at 24%, with ROE at nearly 10%, underscoring stable operations despite slower revenue growth.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB), based in Evansville, Indiana, provides consumer and commercial banking, wealth management, and treasury services across the Midwest and Southeast. Its offerings include deposits, loans, and capital markets support. Recently, ONB stock has shown upward momentum within its 52-week range ($19–$26), bolstered by a Q4 2025 earnings beat with EPS of $0.62 topping forecasts and robust historical NII expansion. Positive analyst updates, including overweight ratings, have lifted sentiment, contributing to year-to-date gains outpacing peers. Key metrics include a 29% profit margin, 1.07% ROA (return on assets), and a 2.4% dividend yield, reflecting disciplined growth amid favorable deposit dynamics.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both FCNCA and ONB focus on regional banking models emphasizing deposits and loans, but FCNCA differentiates via rail leasing for added revenue diversification, while ONB leverages Midwest commercial real estate growth. Growth drivers contrast with ONB's superior 41% quarterly revenue acceleration versus FCNCA's 6%. Recent momentum favors ONB on YTD returns, though FCNCA offers greater scale. Risk factors include interest rate sensitivity and credit quality (e.g., NCOs, net charge-offs), with similar sector exposure to economic cycles. Market sentiment tilts toward ONB on valuation, trading at a lower forward P/E amid analyst enthusiasm.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward ONB based on stronger recent momentum, elevated revenue growth, and greater upside to analyst targets in the regional banking space. Factors like consistent earnings beats and favorable profitability position it probabilistically ahead, though FCNCA's size provides stability. Monitor Q1 earnings for confirmation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FCNCA is a Hold and ONB is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FCNCA’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileONB’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FCNCA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FCNCA’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FCNCA’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FCNCA (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.85% price change this week, while ONB (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.01% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
FCNCA is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| FCNCA | ONB | FCNCA / ONB | |
| Capitalization | 24.2B | 9.79B | 247% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -2.585 | 13.483 | -19% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.02 | 12.89 | 93% |
| Revenue | 9.27B | 2.74B | 339% |
| Total Cash | 801M | 537M | 149% |
| Total Debt | 34.1B | 7.36B | 463% |
FCNCA | ONB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 8 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FCNCA (76). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to FCNCA’s over the last 12 months.
FCNCA's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (38). This means that FCNCA’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
FCNCA's SMR Rating (8) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (16). This means that FCNCA’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as FCNCA (49). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to FCNCA’s over the last 12 months.
FCNCA's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (47). This means that FCNCA’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
| FCNCA | ONB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 27 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
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FCNCA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FCNCA has been closely correlated with ZION. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FCNCA jumps, then ZION could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FCNCA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCNCA | 100% | +0.71% | ||
| ZION - FCNCA | 77% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| FNB - FCNCA | 76% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ASB - FCNCA | 74% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| ONB - FCNCA | 72% Closely correlated | +0.85% | ||
| FULT - FCNCA | 71% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | +0.85% | ||
| ASB - ONB | 91% Closely correlated | +0.62% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +1.42% | ||
| FULT - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
| UMBF - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | +2.92% | ||
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