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FTDR vs TNL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Frontdoor (FTDR) vs. Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) and Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) operate in fundamentally different sectors — home warranties versus leisure travel and vacation ownership — yet both have demonstrated strong revenue growth and shareholder-friendly capital allocation in recent quarters.
- FTDR posted record full-year 2025 results with revenue of $2.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of $553 million, while repurchasing $280 million of its shares.
- TNL generated $4.02 billion in full-year 2025 revenue with adjusted EBITDA of $990 million, returned $449 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and authorized a new $750 million share repurchase program.
- TNL offers a dividend yield of approximately 3.2%, while FTDR pays no dividend, instead focusing entirely on share repurchases and organic reinvestment for shareholder returns.
- Analyst sentiment leans positive for both stocks, but TNL carries a stronger consensus rating (Strong Buy) with a higher projected upside from current price levels compared to FTDR's Moderate Buy consensus.
- Both companies face distinct macro risk factors: FTDR is tied to the U.S. housing market and consumer discretionary spending on home services, while TNL is exposed to leisure travel demand cycles and consumer financing conditions.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to consumer-facing businesses often encounter two very different value propositions: the steady, necessity-adjacent demand of home warranty services and the cyclical yet high-margin world of vacation ownership. FTDR (Frontdoor, Inc.) and TNL (Travel + Leisure Co.) represent these contrasting approaches. Both are mid-cap companies with market capitalizations in the $4.5–$5.0 billion range, and both have delivered compelling financial results over the past year. This stock comparison examines how these two names stack up across business models, recent performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles — offering a balanced view for traders and investors evaluating relative positioning in the current market environment.
FTDR Overview and Recent Performance
FTDR, Frontdoor, Inc., is the nation's leading provider of home warranties, serving approximately 2.1 million homeowners with customizable service plans that cover essential home systems and appliances. The company generates revenue through annual membership fees and is expanding into on-demand home services and non-warranty offerings, including HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) programs. Frontdoor spun off from ServiceMaster in 2018 and has since built a reputation for strong cash flow generation and aggressive share repurchases.
In recent weeks, FTDR shares have traded in the $71–$76 range, well above their 52-week low of $48.47 and within reach of the all-time high near $80.73. The company delivered record full-year 2025 results, with total revenue increasing 14% to $2.09 billion and adjusted EBITDA surging 25% to $553 million. Organic revenue growth of 3.7% was complemented by contributions from the 2-10 Home Buyers Warranty acquisition. Gross profit margins expanded by 150 basis points to 55%. Frontdoor also repurchased $280 million of shares in 2025, reducing its share count by approximately 7%. For 2026, management guided to revenue of $2.155–$2.195 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $565–$580 million. Analysts have maintained a generally constructive outlook, with Truist recently reiterating a Buy rating and an $82 price target, citing improving spending trends and potential upside from housing market recovery.
TNL Overview and Recent Performance
TNL, Travel + Leisure Co., is a leading global leisure travel company operating primarily through two segments: Vacation Ownership (timeshare sales, management, and financing) and Travel & Membership (exchange services, travel clubs, and technology platforms). The company's portfolio includes well-known brands such as Club Wyndham, WorldMark by Wyndham, Margaritaville Vacation Club, and the Travel + Leisure brand itself. With a $20 billion ten-year revenue pipeline and roughly 75% of revenue classified as recurring, TNL benefits from significant earnings visibility.
In recent market activity, TNL shares have traded near $74, with a 52-week range of $56.66 to $81.00. The stock has appreciated approximately 47% on a one-year total return basis. Full-year 2025 results showed net revenue of $4.02 billion, gross VOI (Vacation Ownership Interest) sales growth of 8% to $2.49 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $990 million. The company returned $449 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases and subsequently received board approval for a new $750 million buyback authorization. A quarterly dividend increase to $0.60 per share was recommended, bringing the forward annual yield to roughly 3.2%. Notably, TNL also launched a Resort Optimization Initiative, which resulted in $216 million in non-cash inventory write-downs and impairments during 2025 but is expected to produce a positive net impact on adjusted EBITDA beginning in 2026. For the full year 2026, management guided to adjusted EBITDA of $1,030–$1,055 million.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model and Revenue Composition. FTDR operates in a single, focused segment — home warranty plans — with predictable membership-based revenue. TNL's model is more diversified, spanning vacation ownership sales, resort management fees, and travel exchange memberships. TNL's revenue base of $4.02 billion is roughly double FTDR's $2.09 billion, giving it greater scale, though its Travel & Membership segment has been a persistent drag, with revenue declining 5% in 2025.
Profitability and Margins. FTDR's gross margin of 55% reflects the capital-light nature of its warranty business, where it contracts with independent service providers rather than owning physical infrastructure. TNL's adjusted EBITDA margin is approximately 24.6%, influenced by the capital-intensive nature of resort operations and inventory financing. However, in absolute terms, TNL's $990 million in adjusted EBITDA dwarfs FTDR's $553 million.
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation. FTDR carries $1.2 billion in total debt against $603 million in cash, with a debt-to-equity ratio that reflects aggressive financial leverage. TNL holds $5.73 billion in total corporate and non-recourse debt against $254 million in cash — a significantly more leveraged structure, though much of the non-recourse debt ($2.12 billion) is tied to its securitized notes receivable portfolio. FTDR deploys excess capital exclusively through buybacks, while TNL balances dividends and repurchases, making TNL more attractive to income-oriented investors.
Valuation. Both stocks trade at similar trailing P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratios — FTDR at approximately 20.3x and TNL at approximately 20.5x. However, FTDR's forward P/E of roughly 16.3x suggests higher near-term earnings growth expectations, while TNL's forward P/E near 9.6x reflects the anticipated earnings recovery after 2025's impairment charges. TNL appears cheaper on a forward basis, though this discount partly reflects the complexity and leverage embedded in its business.
Risk Factors. FTDR's fortunes are closely tied to the U.S. housing market — home sales activity influences demand for its warranty products, and a prolonged housing downturn could pressure member count. TNL faces exposure to consumer credit conditions, as a significant portion of its vacation ownership revenue comes from financed purchases. A deterioration in consumer credit quality or a travel demand shock would disproportionately affect TNL. On the other hand, TNL's multi-brand strategy and geographic diversification provide some buffer against single-market downturns.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, fundamental momentum, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI analysis framework would likely find both FTDR and TNL to be fundamentally sound but would lean toward TNL in the current environment. The reasoning centers on several factors: TNL's stronger analyst consensus (Strong Buy versus Moderate Buy), its higher projected upside from current price levels (approximately 19–24% versus roughly 6% for FTDR), the tangible catalyst provided by the Resort Optimization Initiative expected to boost adjusted EBITDA in 2026, and the stock's combination of capital appreciation potential with a meaningful dividend yield. FTDR's comparatively cleaner balance sheet, higher organic margin profile, and aggressive buyback program make it a strong contender in its own right, but the AI would likely note that much of FTDR's positive story already appears priced in following its record 2025 results and recent share price appreciation toward all-time highs. This assessment is probabilistic in nature and reflects current observable data rather than a definitive prediction of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FTDR is a Buy and TNL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FTDR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTNL’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FTDR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TNL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FTDR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TNL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FTDR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TNL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FTDR (@Personnel Services) experienced а +1.59% price change this week, while TNL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was +2.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Personnel Services industry was -1.93%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.83%, and the average quarterly price growth was -14.51%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was +2.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.27%.
Reported Earning Dates
FTDR is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
TNL is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Personnel Services (-1.93% weekly)Personnel Services comprise companies that provide staffing and human resources management solutions for businesses. Each company might be involved in one or more types of recruitment or employee solutions such as permanent or temporary staffing, career consulting, outsourcing, administrative services and many more. Some personnel services companies cater to large businesses, while some specialize in providing services to small/medium-sized organizations. These specialized services potentially expedite the process of getting the ‘right’ candidates and/or training them to meet the requirements of a business process. Some of the companies also cover other critical areas like internal auditing for a company. Robert Half International Inc., ManpowerGroup Inc. and Insperity, Inc. are examples of companies in the personnel services industry.
@Consumer Sundries (+2.52% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
| FTDR | TNL | FTDR / TNL | |
| Capitalization | 5.1B | 4.66B | 109% |
| EBITDA | 506M | 706M | 72% |
| Gain YTD | 25.897 | 9.605 | 270% |
| P/E Ratio | 20.75 | 20.55 | 101% |
| Revenue | 2.12B | 4.09B | 52% |
| Total Cash | 603M | 282M | 214% |
| Total Debt | 1.18B | 5.71B | 21% |
FTDR | TNL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 99 Overvalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TNL's Valuation (16) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is significantly better than the same rating for FTDR (99) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew significantly faster than FTDR’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as FTDR (59) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to FTDR’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's SMR Rating (3) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as FTDR (11) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to FTDR’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as FTDR (48) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to FTDR’s over the last 12 months.
TNL's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as FTDR (39) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that TNL’s stock grew similarly to FTDR’s over the last 12 months.
| FTDR | TNL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 61% |
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FTDR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FTDR has been loosely correlated with TNL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 40% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FTDR jumps, then TNL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FTDR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTDR | 100% | -1.21% | ||
| TNL - FTDR | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.13% | ||
| NCLH - FTDR | 37% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| EXPE - FTDR | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.62% | ||
| CSV - FTDR | 28% Poorly correlated | +0.62% | ||
| CCL - FTDR | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.14% | ||
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TNL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TNL has been loosely correlated with CCL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TNL jumps, then CCL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TNL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TNL | 100% | +1.13% | ||
| CCL - TNL | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| SABR - TNL | 52% Loosely correlated | -1.07% | ||
| VIK - TNL | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.10% | ||
| RCL - TNL | 48% Loosely correlated | -1.13% | ||
| NCLH - TNL | 47% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
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