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GBDC vs PSEC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) vs. Prospect Capital (PSEC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GBDC (Golub Capital BDC) focuses on first-lien, senior-secured loans to sponsor-backed middle-market companies, while PSEC (Prospect Capital) is rotating toward first-lien senior-secured lending after years of diversification into real estate and structured notes.
- Both are business development companies (BDCs), but they offer sharply different yield profiles: PSEC carries a substantially higher dividend yield, while GBDC offers a lower but more consistently covered distribution.
- GBDC trades at a modest discount to net asset value (NAV), whereas PSEC trades at a much deeper discount, reflecting greater investor skepticism about its payout sustainability and history of distribution cuts.
- Recent momentum has diverged: PSEC has posted stronger year-to-date total returns, but with elevated volatility and technical weakness, while GBDC has been steadier with lower beta.
- Credit quality metrics differ meaningfully, with GBDC showing rising non-accruals concentrated in software exposure and PSEC carrying a lower non-accrual ratio alongside ongoing NAV erosion.
- You can explore more about these companies' headlines and intraday activity on dedicated pages: GBDC Major News, GBDC Today's Price Move, PSEC Major News, and PSEC Today's Price Move.
- For automated, data-driven perspectives on these and thousands of other tickers, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) and Prospect Capital (PSEC) are two prominent business development companies (BDCs) — publicly traded lenders that provide debt financing to private middle-market businesses. Both attract income-focused investors drawn to high distributions, yet their business models, risk profiles, and recent market performance differ considerably. This stock comparison examines how the two names stack up across yield, credit quality, valuation, and momentum, making it relevant for dividend investors, value hunters, and traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning in the private-credit sector.
GBDC Overview and Recent Performance
Golub Capital BDC (GBDC) invests primarily in first-lien, senior-secured loans to middle-market companies backed by private-equity sponsors. Its portfolio totals roughly $8.2 billion across more than 400 borrowers, with software representing its largest single industry exposure at about 26% of the portfolio. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in the low-to-mid $12 range, below its 20-day moving average and near the lower end of its 52-week range.
Recent quarters have shown a mixed picture. Adjusted net investment income (NII) has held around $0.34 per share, but NAV has slipped modestly as credit spreads widened and mark-to-market write-downs occurred. Non-accrual investments rose to roughly 1.9% of fair value, and management conducted a credit-by-credit review of its software exposure to assess potential artificial-intelligence disruption. The company trimmed its distribution by 15% earlier in its fiscal year, a move that improved dividend coverage to roughly 100% but signaled caution. Despite these pressures, GBDC maintains one of the lowest borrowing costs in the listed BDC peer group, supporting its relatively defensive positioning.
PSEC Overview and Recent Performance
Prospect Capital (PSEC) is a diversified BDC that has historically combined middle-market lending with real estate and structured-note investments. In recent quarters, management has accelerated a strategic rotation toward first-lien, senior-secured middle-market loans, lifting its first-lien mix to roughly 72% of the portfolio while exiting subordinated structured notes and selected real estate assets. The stock has traded near $1.55, well below its 52-week high and beneath its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Prospect carries one of the highest dividend yields in the BDC space, but that yield reflects substantial investor skepticism. The company has cut its distribution multiple times over the past several years, and its NAV per share has declined steadily, falling from $6.56 to $5.71 over the trailing year. The stock trades at a deep discount to NAV, and its credit rating was downgraded to below investment grade by S&P, citing realized losses and repeated distribution reductions. Non-accruals remain relatively low at about 0.7% of assets, and leverage is among the lowest in the sector, which provides a measure of balance-sheet stability even as payout concerns persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two BDCs diverge on several dimensions. In terms of business model, GBDC is a pure-play, sponsor-backed first-lien lender, whereas PSEC is a more diversified originator that has only recently narrowed its focus and still retains meaningful real-estate exposure through its NPRC affiliate. On growth drivers, GBDC relies on disciplined originations and share repurchases, while PSEC depends on portfolio rotation and asset exits to fund new first-lien loans.
Recent momentum favors PSEC on a year-to-date basis, but that strength follows a sharp October pullback and reflects a rebound from deeply depressed levels. Risk factors also contrast: GBDC faces concentrated software and AI-disruption risk alongside rising non-accruals, while PSEC contends with persistent NAV erosion, a junk-grade credit rating, and a discount that signals doubt about its payout durability. On valuation, PSEC's far deeper NAV discount looks superficially cheaper, but it carries correspondingly higher execution risk compared with GBDC's narrower discount and steadier dividend coverage.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, dividend coverage, and portfolio quality, Tickeron's AI would likely favor GBDC in the current environment. GBDC exhibits a more stable price trend, a distribution that is fully covered by net investment income, lower borrowing costs, and a higher-quality, predominantly first-lien portfolio. While PSEC offers a considerably higher yield and a deeper valuation discount, those attributes are accompanied by greater volatility, repeated distribution cuts, and weaker credit positioning. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: PSEC's lower leverage and portfolio rotation could improve its outlook over time, but on balance the AI's weighting would tilt toward GBDC for relative stability and income reliability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GBDC is a Buy and PSEC is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for GBDC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
GBDC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 101 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 40 of the 101 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 40%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GBDC just turned positive on October 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where GBDC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 18 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 36%.
GBDC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GBDC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 33%.
Following a +3.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GBDC advanced for three days, in 105 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 34%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GBDC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 31%.
GBDC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GBDC entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GBDC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.905) is normal, around the industry mean (2.440). P/E Ratio (19.576) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.102) settles around the average of (0.267) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.129) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
PSEC's RSI Oscillator slumps oversold zone
The RSI Indicator for PSEC moved into overbought territory on November 05, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PSEC just turned positive on October 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where PSEC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +6.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSEC advanced for three days, in 121 of 267 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 45%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSEC as a result. In 72 of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSEC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for PSEC entered a downward trend on November 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PSEC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.252) is normal, around the industry mean (2.444). P/E Ratio (23.083) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.250). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.548) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.101) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.432) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PSEC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
GBDC | PSEC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 92 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 81 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 5 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GBDC's Valuation (91) in the null industry is in the same range as PSEC (92). This means that GBDC’s stock grew similarly to PSEC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's Profit vs Risk Rating (30) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for PSEC (100). This means that GBDC’s stock grew significantly faster than PSEC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's SMR Rating (17) in the null industry is in the same range as PSEC (19). This means that GBDC’s stock grew similarly to PSEC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's Price Growth Rating (50) in the null industry is in the same range as PSEC (81). This means that GBDC’s stock grew similarly to PSEC’s over the last 12 months.
GBDC's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for PSEC (84). This means that GBDC’s stock grew significantly faster than PSEC’s over the last 12 months.
| GBDC | PSEC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 41% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 29% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 36% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 38% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 34% | 8 days ago 45% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 31% | 1 day ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 26% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 1 day ago 38% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GBDC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while PSEC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GBDC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- PSEC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GBDC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSEC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GBDC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PSEC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GBDC (@Investment Managers) experienced а +5.06% price change this week, while PSEC (@Investment Managers) price change was -14.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -3.24%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
GBDC is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
PSEC is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-3.24% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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