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GEF vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Greif, Inc. (GEF) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both GEF and PKG operate in the packaging sector, with GEF focusing on industrial packaging and PKG on containerboard products.
- GEF delivered a 39.65% one-year return, outperforming PKG's 16.81%, though year-to-date gains are similar at around 3-4%.
- PKG boasts a larger market capitalization of $19 billion compared to GEF's $3.95 billion, indicating greater scale.
- Recent developments include GEF's $1.8 billion sale of its containerboard business and PKG's plant closure in Richmond, Virginia.
- Analyst price targets suggest moderate upside for both, with GEF at $78.20 and PKG around $226-$232.
Introduction
This comparison examines GEF and PKG, two key players in the packaging industry amid shifting demand for industrial and consumer packaging solutions. Investors tracking materials sector stocks, particularly those exposed to e-commerce growth, supply chain dynamics, and sustainability trends, may find value in assessing their relative performance. With both companies navigating recent market volatility, this analysis highlights business models, momentum, and positioning to aid informed decision-making in the current environment.
GEF Overview and Recent Performance
Greif, Inc. (GEF) is a global producer of industrial packaging products and services, including rigid industrial packaging and containerboard, serving sectors like chemicals and food. In recent market activity, GEF shares have traded around $69, within a 52-week range of $50.71 to $77.14. The stock has shown resilience with a 39.65% one-year gain, driven by a 24% rise in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in Q1 2026 and the completion of a $1.8 billion all-cash sale of its containerboard business. Sentiment has been influenced by these strategic moves, though recent weeks saw a slight pullback amid broader sector pressures. Market capitalization stands at approximately $3.95 billion, with a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio of 28.63.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) ranks as a leading North American producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging, alongside uncoated freesheet paper. Shares recently closed near $213, within a 52-week range of $176.45 to $249.51. Year-to-date performance is up 4.09%, reflecting steady demand despite a one-year return of 16.81%. Key influences include anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings on April 22 and the announcement of a Richmond, Virginia plant closure affecting operational efficiency. The company maintains a robust market capitalization of $19 billion and a trailing P/E ratio of 24.87, supported by strong profitability metrics like 17.20% return on equity (ROE).
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GEF emphasizes global industrial packaging like steel drums, contrasting PKG's focus on containerboard and corrugated boxes for e-commerce and consumer goods. Growth drivers differ: GEF benefits from divestitures freeing capital, while PKG leverages scale in North American demand. Recent momentum favors GEF on a one-year basis, but PKG shows tighter year-to-date stability. Risk factors include GEF's smaller size and earnings volatility versus PKG's plant optimizations and higher debt-to-equity. Sector exposure is similar in materials, yet PKG edges in profitability (8.61% profit margin), while market sentiment tilts toward PKG's dividend consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis leans toward PKG in the current environment, citing its larger scale, superior ROE, and consistent profitability amid upcoming earnings catalysts. While GEF offers stronger recent momentum from strategic sales, PKG's relative stability and market positioning suggest higher probability of outperformance over the near term, based on trend data and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GEF is a Hold and PKG is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GEF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePKG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GEF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GEF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GEF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
GEF (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +1.86% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +1.59% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +1.14%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
GEF is expected to report earnings on Jun 10, 2026.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+1.14% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
| GEF | PKG | GEF / PKG | |
| Capitalization | 3.51B | 19.7B | 18% |
| EBITDA | 629M | 1.82B | 35% |
| Gain YTD | 1.389 | 8.045 | 17% |
| P/E Ratio | 28.13 | 26.92 | 105% |
| Revenue | 5.43B | 9.22B | 59% |
| Total Cash | 286M | 544M | 53% |
| Total Debt | 1.21B | 4.37B | 28% |
GEF | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 24 Undervalued | 50 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GEF's Valuation (24) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (50). This means that GEF’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (54). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (52) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (74). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (53). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
GEF's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (20). This means that GEF’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
| GEF | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 59% | 12 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 62% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| MFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| GSCTX | 14.02 | 0.09 | +0.65% |
| Goldman Sachs Small Cp Val Insghts C | |||
| BVEIX | 22.17 | 0.08 | +0.36% |
| Becker Equity Fund Institutional | |||
| FLCNX | 35.91 | 0.12 | +0.34% |
| Fidelity Contrafund K6 | |||
| TGRFX | 7.10 | 0.02 | +0.28% |
| Transamerica International Focus R6 | |||
| FSMRX | 31.40 | -0.30 | -0.95% |
| Franklin Small-Mid Cap Growth R | |||
GEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GEF has been loosely correlated with PKG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GEF jumps, then PKG could also see price increases.