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GEF vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Greif, Inc. (GEF) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both companies operate in industrial packaging, but GEF is a diversified producer of steel, polymer, and fiber packaging and closures, while PKG is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States.
- The two names are directly linked: PKG acquired GEF's containerboard and timberlands assets, while GEF has refocused on its core industrial packaging operations.
- Relative performance diverged over the past year, with GEF gaining roughly 37% and PKG gaining roughly 16% over the trailing 52 weeks.
- Scale differs sharply, with PKG carrying a market capitalization near $21 billion versus roughly $4.5 billion for GEF.
- GEF screens cheaper on trailing earnings, but its results have been lumpier quarter to quarter; PKG offers more consistent, larger-scale cash generation.
- Both pay dividends, and GEF recently raised its recurring dividend by 10.7%.
Introduction
Greif, Inc. (GEF) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) are two distinct ways to gain exposure to the U.S. industrial packaging cycle. This stock comparison is especially relevant because the two companies are strategically intertwined: PKG acquired GEF's containerboard and timberlands businesses, reshaping both firms' market positioning. Investors weighing a smaller, turnaround-oriented name against a larger, integrated corrugated leader will find this relative performance analysis useful for understanding how business model, scale, and momentum drive returns in the same sector.
GEF Overview and Recent Performance
Greif, Inc., headquartered in Delaware, Ohio, is a global industrial packaging company producing rigid, flexible, and fiber-based packaging plus closure systems. Following the divestiture of its containerboard and timberlands operations, GEF has concentrated on customized polymer, durable metal, and sustainable fiber solutions, using proceeds to cut debt and streamline its balance sheet.
In recent market activity, GEF has outperformed many packaging peers, advancing roughly 37% over the trailing 52 weeks. Recent quarterly results reinforced the positive narrative, with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) rising about 25% year over year and margins expanding by more than 260 basis points. Management reached a $90 million cost-optimization milestone ahead of schedule and reduced leverage to approximately 1.1x. Offsetting these gains, softer industrial volumes and Middle East-related demand headwinds have tempered near-term growth, and analysts maintain a largely neutral consensus on the stock.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America, based in Lake Forest, Illinois, is the third-largest U.S. producer of containerboard and corrugated products, with roughly a 10% share of the domestic market. Its scale and integrated paper-to-box operations give it a differentiated cost position across corrugated packaging and a smaller paper segment.
PKG has gained approximately 16% over the trailing 52 weeks, supported by double-digit sales growth and record corrugated shipments in recent quarters. The integration of GEF's former containerboard assets has lifted volumes and positioned the company to benefit from announced price increases, although acquisition-related costs, higher input expenses, and charges tied to the discontinuation of the Wallula, Washington mill have pressured reported margins. Wall Street maintains a "Moderate Buy" consensus, reflecting constructive expectations for pricing and synergy capture alongside caution on near-term margin risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is business model. GEF is a diversified, turnaround-focused packaging company trading at a lower trailing valuation, while PKG is a larger, more integrated corrugated operator with steadier cash generation and a premium multiple. In recent momentum, GEF has led on a relative performance basis, helped by sharp earnings beats and rapid deleveraging; PKG has delivered steadier growth driven by volume and pricing rather than restructuring.
Risk profiles also differ. GEF carries quarter-to-quarter earnings lumpiness and exposure to softer chemical, auto, and industrial end markets. PKG faces integration costs, input-cost inflation, and capacity decisions such as the Wallula mill closure. Sector exposure overlaps in fiber packaging, but GEF retains broader industrial reach through metal, polymer, and closure products, while PKG's fortunes are more tightly tied to the containerboard pricing cycle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor GEF on recent trend strength and relative performance, given its stronger 52-week gains, accelerating adjusted earnings, and improving balance sheet. However, PKG's larger scale, steadier cash generation, and constructive pricing tailwinds give it a more consistent risk profile. The AI verdict therefore leans toward GEF for momentum-oriented traders seeking higher recent upside, while recognizing PKG as the more stable, institutionally favored positioning. The most suitable choice depends on the trading style and timeframe each investor prioritizes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GEF is a Hold and PKG is a Buy.
GEF's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GEF turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where GEF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GEF's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for GEF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +1.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GEF advanced for three days, in 185 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
GEF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GEF as a result. In 54 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
GEF moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GEF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for GEF entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GEF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.540) is normal, around the industry mean (1.395). P/E Ratio (24.771) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.070) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.868) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PKG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PKG turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where PKG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PKG as a result. In 63 of 97 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
PKG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PKG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PKG advanced for three days, in 198 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 273 cases where PKG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PKG moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PKG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
PKG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PKG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.873) is normal, around the industry mean (1.395). P/E Ratio (32.982) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.881). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.507) is also within normal values, averaging (1.023). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.168) is also within normal values, averaging (1.259).
GEF | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GEF's Valuation (49) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (78). This means that GEF’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (40). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (57) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (75). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (43). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as GEF (38). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to GEF’s over the last 12 months.
| GEF | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 63% | 8 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GEF’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while PKG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- GEF’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GEF’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GEF’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GEF (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а -2.31% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +0.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
GEF is expected to report earnings on Mar 03, 2027.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (+5.71% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
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GEF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GEF has been loosely correlated with PKG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GEF jumps, then PKG could also see price increases.
PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
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