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IP vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? International Paper (IP) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- International Paper (IP) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) operate in the paper and packaging sector, with PKG demonstrating stronger year-to-date total return of approximately 14.4% compared to IP’s roughly 2.3% as of mid-July 2026.
- PKG reported first-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $2.40, beating estimates, alongside a 20% dividend increase to an annual rate of $6.00 per share.
- IP posted first-quarter 2026 net sales of $5.97 billion and earnings from continuing operations of $76 million, with second-quarter results scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
- Both companies face sector exposure to commodity prices, supply-chain dynamics, and demand from consumer and industrial packaging markets.
- Recent market activity shows PKG maintaining higher price stability and momentum, while IP trades at a lower absolute price point with analyst price targets suggesting potential upside.
- Relative positioning favors PKG on dividend growth and near-term earnings delivery, though IP’s upcoming results could influence sentiment.
Introduction
International Paper (IP) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) represent two established players in the paper and packaging industry, making them relevant for investors seeking exposure to materials and consumer staples sectors. This comparison examines their business models, recent stock performance, and key financial metrics to assist traders and portfolio managers evaluating relative value and momentum in the current market environment. The analysis focuses on verifiable developments over recent weeks and broader performance trends, providing objective insights for those constructing sector allocations or assessing cyclical recovery plays.
IP Overview and Recent Performance
International Paper (IP) is a major producer of packaging, pulp, and paper products, serving global markets with a focus on corrugated packaging and cellulose fibers. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported net sales of $5.97 billion and earnings from continuing operations of $76 million, with adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations reaching $677 million. The stock closed at approximately $37.56 on July 17, 2026, reflecting a year-to-date return of about 2.3% amid mixed one-year performance. Recent market activity has been influenced by broader sector pressures and anticipation of second-quarter earnings, scheduled for July 30, 2026. Analyst coverage remains constructive, with several firms maintaining buy ratings and raising price targets into the low-to-mid $40s, pointing to perceived undervaluation relative to peers.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) specializes in corrugated packaging and containerboard, with operations centered on high-volume manufacturing and distribution. First-quarter 2026 results showed net income of $171 million ($1.91 per share) and adjusted net income of $215 million ($2.40 per share), exceeding analyst expectations despite a revenue figure of $2.4 billion. The company announced a 20% increase in its quarterly dividend to an annualized $6.00 per share, underscoring cash-flow strength. As of July 17, 2026, the stock traded near $233.07, delivering a year-to-date return of approximately 14.4%. Recent weeks have featured modest price fluctuations following the earnings release, with the shares benefiting from positive investor reception to the dividend action and earnings beat.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies share exposure to the paper and packaging sector, yet differ in scale and emphasis: International Paper (IP) maintains a broader global footprint with significant pulp and fiber operations, while Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) focuses more narrowly on containerboard and corrugated products. Growth drivers for PKG include recent dividend expansion and consistent earnings delivery, contributing to stronger year-to-date momentum. IP’s positioning reflects larger revenue scale but has shown comparatively muted returns amid sector headwinds. Risk factors for both include raw-material cost volatility and cyclical demand, though PKG’s recent cash-return initiatives may offer a buffer. Market sentiment, as reflected in price action, has tilted toward PKG’s stability, while IP offers a lower entry point with analyst upside potential ahead of its upcoming earnings release.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as stronger year-to-date total return, recent earnings beat, and dividend growth, Tickeron’s AI models would currently assign a higher probabilistic favorability to Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) over International Paper (IP). PKG exhibits more consistent trend alignment and near-term catalysts in the data reviewed. IP’s outlook remains sensitive to its forthcoming second-quarter results and could narrow the gap depending on delivery. This assessment reflects relative positioning rather than any guarantee of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IP is a Hold and PKG is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePKG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- IP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IP (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а -3.15% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was -3.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was -2.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
IP is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Oct 26, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (-2.76% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
| IP | PKG | IP / PKG | |
| Capitalization | 21.6B | 21.9B | 99% |
| EBITDA | 228M | 1.82B | 13% |
| Gain YTD | 6.249 | 20.700 | 30% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.84 | 31.93 | 144% |
| Revenue | 24.3B | 9.22B | 264% |
| Total Cash | 1.24B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 9.54B | 4.37B | 219% |
IP | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 23 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IP's Valuation (10) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (34). This means that IP’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for IP (100). This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (54) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IP (97). This means that PKG’s stock grew somewhat faster than IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (23) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as IP (44). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as IP (25). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
| IP | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 10 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 68% |
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IP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IP has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IP jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.