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IP vs PKG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? International Paper (IP) vs. Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) has outperformed International Paper (IP) year-to-date, with positive returns amid sector pressures.
- IP trades near its 52-week low of around $32, reflecting recent underperformance, while PKG holds steady near $212 in its mid-range.
- Both stocks offer solid dividends, with IP's yield at approximately 5.7% exceeding PKG's due to price weakness.
- PKG shows stronger profitability with an 8% profit margin versus IP's negative margins on a trailing twelve-month (TTM) basis.
- PKG exhibits lower volatility (beta of 0.92) compared to IP (beta of 1.10).
- Over the past year, PKG has significantly outpaced IP, which declined over 30%.
Introduction
International Paper (IP) and Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) are leading players in the paper and packaging sector, producing essential fiber-based products for consumer goods, e-commerce, and industrial uses. This stock comparison highlights their relative performance, financial health, and market positioning in the current environment of fluctuating demand and supply chain dynamics. Traders seeking momentum plays and long-term investors focused on dividends or sector exposure will find value in evaluating how these stocks stack up amid recent earnings cycles and strategic moves.
IP Overview and Recent Performance
International Paper (IP) is a global producer of renewable fiber-based packaging, pulp, and paper products, serving markets like corrugated packaging and cellulose fibers. In recent market activity, IP shares have trended lower, hovering near 52-week lows around $32.65 with a market cap of about $17.3 billion. Sentiment has been pressured by analyst target reductions from firms like Citigroup and Bank of America, citing a challenging packaging sector outlook. Key developments include the announced $360 million acquisition of North Pacific Paper Company to enhance pulp capacity and operational efficiency. Upcoming first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 30 could influence near-term momentum, though trailing twelve-month earnings per share (EPS) stand negative at -$5.61, contributing to price weakness.
PKG Overview and Recent Performance
Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) focuses on containerboard and corrugated packaging solutions, primarily for North American markets with a strong emphasis on e-commerce and consumer packaging. Shares have maintained stability around $212, with a market cap near $19 billion, reflecting resilience in recent weeks. The company reported robust first-quarter 2026 results on April 22, with revenue of $2.37 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.40, surpassing consensus estimates by $0.23. This earnings beat has supported positive sentiment, contrasting broader sector headwinds. Trailing twelve-month EPS remains solid, bolstering its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 18, amid consistent demand for sustainable packaging.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both IP and PKG operate in the packaging sector but differ in business models: IP offers broader diversification into pulp and international markets, while PKG concentrates on high-margin corrugated boxes domestically. Growth drivers for PKG include e-commerce demand and superior operating margins (10.9% vs. IP's 6.5%), though IP's recent acquisition may catalyze volume expansion. Recent momentum favors PKG with year-to-date gains and earnings strength, versus IP's declines. Risk factors include commodity price volatility for both, but PKG's lower beta signals reduced sensitivity to market swings. Market sentiment leans toward PKG for stability, while IP appeals for value at lower multiples like price-to-sales of 0.7.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor PKG over IP, driven by stronger trend consistency, positive earnings momentum, healthier profitability margins, and relative outperformance in recent market activity. While IP presents potential from strategic acquisitions and higher dividend yield, PKG's stability and positioning offer a more favorable probabilistic edge for traders monitoring sector recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IP is a Buy and PKG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IP’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePKG’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- IP’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PKG’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IP’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PKG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IP’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
- PKG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
IP (@Containers/Packaging) experienced а +1.37% price change this week, while PKG (@Containers/Packaging) price change was +1.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Containers/Packaging industry was -0.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
IP is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
PKG is expected to report earnings on Jul 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Containers/Packaging (-0.16% weekly)The containers/packing sector includes companies that manufacture containers (like plastic and aluminum food containers, glass bottles, metal cans, cardboard, storage and waste bags, giftwraps etc.) and provide packing services. Food-and-beverage and household products are major markets for this business. Several companies in this industry cater to international markets in addition to serving domestic customers. Consumer spending habits could potentially affect this industry’s performance. Some products, that use oil-based materials as inputs, are likely to see their costs of production get impacted (to some extent) by energy price movements. The ever-expanding e-commerce market has only supercharged the amount/frequency of goods shipped domestically and across borders, thereby creating ample potential opportunities for containers and packaging businesses. Ball Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor Plc and Packaging Corporation of America are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.
| IP | PKG | IP / PKG | |
| Capitalization | 19.5B | 20.9B | 93% |
| EBITDA | 228M | 1.82B | 13% |
| Gain YTD | -4.004 | 14.902 | -27% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.84 | 28.44 | 161% |
| Revenue | 24.3B | 9.22B | 264% |
| Total Cash | 1.24B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 9.54B | 4.37B | 219% |
IP | PKG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 46 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 33 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 97 | 53 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 20 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IP's Valuation (9) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as PKG (33). This means that IP’s stock grew similarly to PKG’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is significantly better than the same rating for IP (100). This means that PKG’s stock grew significantly faster than IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's SMR Rating (53) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IP (97). This means that PKG’s stock grew somewhat faster than IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as IP (46). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
PKG's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Containers Or Packaging industry is in the same range as IP (29). This means that PKG’s stock grew similarly to IP’s over the last 12 months.
| IP | PKG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 9 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 62% | 6 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 62% |
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IP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IP has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IP jumps, then SW could also see price increases.
PKG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PKG has been closely correlated with SW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PKG jumps, then SW could also see price increases.