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GXO vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? GXO Logistics (GXO) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- XPO shows stronger year-to-date gains of approximately 49%, outpacing GXO's 11% rise amid recent market activity.
- XPO's market capitalization stands at $24 billion, significantly larger than GXO's $5.4 billion, reflecting greater scale in less-than-truckload (LTL) freight operations.
- Recent quarterly earnings for XPO beat estimates with 7.3% revenue growth and improved operating ratios, boosting sentiment.
- GXO has secured new contracts in recent weeks, such as with Grupa Żywiec and Arrow McLaren, supporting long-term growth potential despite short-term price pressure.
- Analyst price targets suggest upside for both, with XPO at $221 (9% potential) and GXO at $72 (53% potential) from recent levels.
- XPO exhibits higher profitability margins at 4.2% versus GXO's 0.24%, highlighting operational efficiency differences.
Introduction
GXO Logistics and XPO, formerly siblings post-spin-off, represent key players in the logistics sector. GXO focuses on contract logistics, while XPO specializes in less-than-truckload (LTL) freight. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing transportation exposure. With supply chain dynamics evolving, understanding relative strengths helps in portfolio allocation amid freight demand fluctuations.
GXO Overview and Recent Performance
GXO Logistics is a leading contract logistics provider, offering warehousing, distribution, and automation services globally. In recent market activity, its shares have experienced volatility, trading near $47 within a 52-week range of $37 to $67. Year-to-date gains stand at about 11%, but recent weeks saw downward pressure, partly linked to Amazon-related developments. Positive catalysts include new partnerships, such as Europe's first autoload system for Grupa Żywiec and a U.S. motorsports deal with Arrow McLaren, signaling automation-driven growth. Upcoming earnings are anticipated to show EPS of $0.37, with analysts maintaining a moderate buy consensus and targets around $72. Elevated P/E at 168 reflects growth expectations tempered by thin margins at 0.24%.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO, Inc. is a premier asset-light transportation firm centered on North American LTL services. Shares hover around $203 in a 52-week span from $107 to $231, with robust year-to-date returns of 49%. Recent weeks highlighted a strong Q1 earnings beat, with revenue up 7.3% to $2.1 billion, adjusted EPS of $1.01 exceeding forecasts, and LTL operating income surging 20% year-over-year due to productivity gains and pricing. Market sentiment remains bullish post-results, though shares dipped amid broader sector moves. P/E stands at 70, supported by 4.2% profit margins and ROE of 20%. Analysts favor buys with a $221 target, underscoring momentum in freight recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
GXO and XPO diverge in models: GXO's contract logistics rely on long-term client pacts and automation for stability, while XPO's LTL emphasizes network density and yield management for cyclical upside. Growth drivers favor XPO's recent momentum from volume gains and OR (operating ratio) improvements below 80%, versus GXO's contract wins amid softer demand. Risks include GXO's higher debt/equity at 194% and client concentration, against XPO's freight volatility. Both share industrial sector exposure, but XPO leads in sentiment and ROE (20% vs. 1%), trading at a relative premium despite comparable betas around 1.7.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models would currently favor XPO over GXO, driven by superior trend consistency, earnings beats, and higher relative positioning in LTL recovery. XPO's productivity catalysts and YTD outperformance suggest greater probability of near-term upside, though GXO offers value via deeper discount to targets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GXO is a Hold and XPO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GXO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileXPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- GXO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GXO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GXO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
GXO (@Other Transportation) experienced а -2.35% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was -12.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Transportation industry was -4.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -5.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.28%.
Reported Earning Dates
GXO is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Transportation (-4.00% weekly)Other Transportation includes transportation services like providing airport ground transportation, airport management and equipment, shipping services, as well as businesses that operate bridges, expressways and other public services such as taxis and subways. Grupo Aero-pac, Corporacion America Airports S.A. and Matson, Inc. are some of the major companies operating in this space.
@Trucking (-5.39% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| GXO | XPO | GXO / XPO | |
| Capitalization | 5.72B | 23.6B | 24% |
| EBITDA | 810M | 1.22B | 67% |
| Gain YTD | -7.599 | 46.788 | -16% |
| P/E Ratio | 44.40 | 69.14 | 64% |
| Revenue | 13.5B | 8.3B | 163% |
| Total Cash | 794M | 237M | 335% |
| Total Debt | 5.96B | 4.03B | 148% |
XPO | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| GXO | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 5 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 67% | 11 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 74% | 5 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 5 days ago 87% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 5 days ago 77% |
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GXO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GXO has been closely correlated with XPO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GXO jumps, then XPO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GXO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | 100% | +1.16% | ||
| XPO - GXO | 71% Closely correlated | -1.13% | ||
| FDX - GXO | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| UPS - GXO | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.26% | ||
| JBHT - GXO | 43% Loosely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| RLGT - GXO | 40% Loosely correlated | +2.51% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | -1.13% | ||
| SAIA - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| ODFL - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +1.23% | ||
| KNX - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +1.16% | ||
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