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ODFL vs XPO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) vs. XPO (XPO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- XPO has significantly outperformed ODFL in recent market activity, with year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 62% compared to ODFL's 41%.
- Both stocks trade around $220 per share, but ODFL boasts a larger market capitalization (market cap) of $46 billion versus XPO's $26 billion.
- ODFL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 45.7, lower than XPO's 83.3, reflecting differing growth expectations amid sector headwinds.
- XPO benefits from recent analyst upgrades, including a raised price target to $275, signaling positive sentiment shifts.
- Over the past year, XPO delivered 128% returns versus ODFL's 51%, highlighting stronger momentum in LTL (less-than-truckload) freight.
- Upcoming quarterly earnings for both could influence near-term price behavior in the cyclical transportation sector.
Introduction
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) and XPO (XPO) are prominent players in the less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation sector, a critical segment of the U.S. logistics industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning amid fluctuating freight demand and economic conditions. Investors and traders focused on industrials, particularly those tracking transportation stocks, may find value in understanding relative strengths, such as growth trajectories and valuation metrics. With both companies reporting strong historical returns but facing sector-specific risks like yield pressures and capacity utilization, this analysis highlights key contrasts for informed decision-making in today's market environment.
ODFL Overview and Recent Performance
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a leading LTL freight carrier, specializes in regional and national less-than-truckload services with a network emphasizing operational efficiency and service quality. In recent market activity, ODFL shares have risen about 41% over the past year, trading near $220 with a 52-week range of $126 to $227. Year-to-date performance stands at roughly 41%, supported by solid Q4 2025 results including $1.31 billion in revenue and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, beating estimates. Sentiment has been tempered by valuation concerns despite operational resilience, with analysts debating sustainability amid softer freight volumes in recent weeks. Upcoming Q1 earnings are anticipated to show EPS around $1.05, influencing near-term price behavior as investors assess yield trends and tonnage growth.
XPO Overview and Recent Performance
XPO (XPO), Inc., a focused North American LTL provider following spin-offs of its global logistics and brokerage units, emphasizes network density and technology-driven efficiency. Shares have surged approximately 128% over the past year and 62% year-to-date, trading around $220 within a 52-week range of $95 to $231. Recent performance reflects robust momentum, bolstered by Q4 2025 adjusted operating income growth and positive analyst revisions, such as Jefferies' buy rating with a $275 price target. Market sentiment has improved on efficiency gains and LTL volume expansion, though high PE ratios signal growth premiums. With Q1 earnings due soon, focus remains on revenue acceleration and margin stability amid competitive dynamics in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ODFL and XPO center on LTL freight, but XPO's streamlined post-spin-off model drives higher growth potential through European expansion remnants and tech investments, contrasting ODFL's mature, U.S.-centric network prized for consistency. Recent momentum favors XPO with superior YTD and one-year returns, reflecting stronger volume gains amid industrial recovery, while ODFL faces valuation scrutiny despite stable operations. Risk factors include sector cyclicality, fuel costs, and labor dynamics, with XPO's higher PE indicating greater sensitivity to misses versus ODFL's defensive posture. Market sentiment leans positive for XPO on analyst upgrades, but ODFL offers lower volatility and dividend appeal for conservative positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would currently favor XPO over ODFL, based on superior trend consistency, elevated relative strength, and emerging catalysts like efficiency improvements. XPO's outsized gains and upward revisions suggest higher probability of continued outperformance in the near term, though ODFL's stability provides a counterbalance in risk-averse scenarios.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ODFL is a Buy and XPO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ODFL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXPO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ODFL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XPO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ODFL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XPO’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ODFL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- XPO’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ODFL (@Trucking) experienced а -7.54% price change this week, while XPO (@Trucking) price change was -8.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucking industry was -5.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +9.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
ODFL is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
XPO is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucking (-5.41% weekly)The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.
| ODFL | XPO | ODFL / XPO | |
| Capitalization | 45.7B | 23.6B | 194% |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.22B | 141% |
| Gain YTD | 40.373 | 48.032 | 84% |
| P/E Ratio | 45.83 | 69.14 | 66% |
| Revenue | 5.46B | 8.3B | 66% |
| Total Cash | 288M | 237M | 122% |
| Total Debt | 40M | 4.03B | 1% |
ODFL | XPO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 86 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 19 | 13 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
XPO's Valuation (89) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (93). This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Trucking industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ODFL (53). This means that XPO’s stock grew somewhat faster than ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's SMR Rating (41) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as XPO (46). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
ODFL's Price Growth Rating (15) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as XPO (43). This means that ODFL’s stock grew similarly to XPO’s over the last 12 months.
XPO's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Trucking industry is in the same range as ODFL (19). This means that XPO’s stock grew similarly to ODFL’s over the last 12 months.
| ODFL | XPO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 87% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 71% | 11 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 77% |
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ODFL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ODFL has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ODFL jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ODFL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFL | 100% | -0.69% | ||
| SAIA - ODFL | 83% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| ARCB - ODFL | 82% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
| KNX - ODFL | 78% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| TFII - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +1.00% | ||
| MRTN - ODFL | 75% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
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XPO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XPO has been closely correlated with SAIA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XPO jumps, then SAIA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To XPO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 100% | +0.85% | ||
| SAIA - XPO | 77% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
| FWRD - XPO | 75% Closely correlated | +0.66% | ||
| ODFL - XPO | 72% Closely correlated | -0.69% | ||
| GXO - XPO | 71% Closely correlated | +2.24% | ||
| ARCB - XPO | 70% Closely correlated | +0.70% | ||
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