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HESM vs LNG
Hess Midstream LP (HESM) vs Cheniere Energy (LNG) Earnings Preview: Q1 Metrics in Spotlight
Key Takeaways
- Hess Midstream LP (HESM) reports Q1 2026 earnings on May 4, with analysts expecting EPS around $0.65-$0.68 and revenue near $390-$400 million.
- LNG follows on May 7, targeting EPS of about $4.29 on $5.8 billion in revenue amid LNG export demand.
- HESM boasts a strong beat history, delivering $0.72 EPS in Q4 2025 versus $0.69 expected, with adjusted EBITDA up 9% yearly.
- Cheniere Energy posted a Q4 2025 EPS miss at $2.87 against $3.83 forecast but revenue grew 23% year-over-year on higher volumes.
- HESM offers a high dividend yield over 7%, appealing for income, while LNG provides scale with superior EBITDA margins in LNG liquefaction.
- Both face energy transition risks, but HESM's fee-based model ensures stability versus LNG's volume sensitivity.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Hess Midstream LP (HESM), a fee-based midstream provider focused on gathering, processing, and terminaling in the Bakken Shale, and Cheniere Energy (LNG), the leading U.S. LNG exporter with liquefaction and export facilities, operate in complementary energy infrastructure segments. As global demand for natural gas and LNG rises amid energy transitions, their Q1 2026 earnings on May 4 and May 7 respectively offer insights into operational resilience, volume trends, and pricing dynamics. Investors compare them for exposure to midstream stability (HESM) versus high-growth LNG exports (LNG), weighing yields, scalability, and geopolitical influences on energy flows.
Hess Midstream LP Focus
Hess Midstream LP (HESM) will release Q1 2026 results ahead of its May 4 conference call. Analysts project EPS of $0.65-$0.68 and revenue around $390-$398 million, building on Q4 2025's $404 million top line and $0.72 EPS beat. The company reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $1.238 billion, up 9% year-over-year, driven by steady volumes from sponsor Hess Corporation. Key watches include throughput growth in gas processing and crude terminals, potential sponsor repurchases, and maintenance of its 8%+ distribution hike trajectory. HESM's fixed-fee contracts shield it from commodity volatility, positioning it for another potential beat.
Cheniere Energy Context
Cheniere Energy (LNG) plans Q1 2026 earnings disclosure before its May 7 call, with consensus EPS at $4.29 on $5.806 billion revenue. Following Q4 2025's EPS shortfall ($2.87 vs. $3.83 expected) despite revenue expansion, focus shifts to LNG cargo loadings, Corpus Christi expansions, and marketing margins. Full-year 2025 delivered robust adjusted EBITDA, bolstered by record exports. LNG's scale—market cap exceeding $50 billion versus HESM's ~$4.8 billion—fuels growth via new trains and international contracts, though derivative impacts and European demand fluctuations pose risks.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
HESM edges in earnings consistency, with recent quarters beating estimates on stable Bakken volumes, versus LNG's Q4 volatility from hedging. HESM's EBITDA margins benefit from 98%+ fee-based revenue, yielding higher distributable cash flow coverage (1.5x+), while LNG's 30%+ margins reflect LNG pricing leverage but higher capex (~$2 billion annually). Growth drivers differ: HESM via Hess tie-ins and buybacks; LNG through 10+ million tonnes capacity additions. Risks include HESM's sponsor concentration and LNG's exposure to global gas prices/geopolitics. Sentiment favors HESM's 7.9% yield for income stability, LNG's momentum for expansion upside.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors HESM with 65% probability for near-term outperformance, citing superior earnings beat reliability, defensive fee-based model, and attractive yield amid uncertain LNG volumes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HESM is a StrongBuy and LNG is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HESM’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileLNG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HESM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LNG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HESM’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LNG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HESM’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- LNG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HESM (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) experienced а -0.85% price change this week, while LNG (@Oil & Gas Pipelines) price change was +1.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Pipelines industry was +2.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +30.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
HESM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
LNG is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Pipelines (+2.49% weekly)Oil & Gas Pipelines industry includes companies that transport natural gas and crude oil through pipelines. These companies also collect and market the fuels. The pipeline segment could be considered as a midstream operation – functioning as a link between the upstream and downstream operations in the oil and gas industry. Some of the largest U.S. pipeline players include Enterprise Products Partners L.P, TC Energy Corporation and Energy Transfer, L.P.
| HESM | LNG | HESM / LNG | |
| Capitalization | 4.94B | 50.6B | 10% |
| EBITDA | 1.25B | 6.1B | 20% |
| Gain YTD | 16.352 | 24.738 | 66% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.32 | 40.83 | 33% |
| Revenue | 1.63B | 20.4B | 8% |
| Total Cash | 4.6M | 1.31B | 0% |
| Total Debt | 3.77B | 26.4B | 14% |
HESM | LNG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 17 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 67 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HESM's Valuation (3) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LNG (46) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that HESM’s stock grew somewhat faster than LNG’s over the last 12 months.
LNG's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as HESM (21) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that LNG’s stock grew similarly to HESM’s over the last 12 months.
HESM's SMR Rating (17) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as LNG (32) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry. This means that HESM’s stock grew similarly to LNG’s over the last 12 months.
LNG's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is in the same range as HESM (52) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that LNG’s stock grew similarly to HESM’s over the last 12 months.
LNG's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Oil And Gas Pipelines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HESM (67) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that LNG’s stock grew somewhat faster than HESM’s over the last 12 months.
| HESM | LNG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 68% | 5 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 7 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 56% |
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HESM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HESM has been loosely correlated with LNG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HESM jumps, then LNG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HESM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HESM | 100% | -0.36% | ||
| LNG - HESM | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| OKE - HESM | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| TRGP - HESM | 53% Loosely correlated | +1.20% | ||
| AM - HESM | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.45% | ||
| PAGP - HESM | 46% Loosely correlated | -0.04% | ||
More | ||||
LNG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LNG has been loosely correlated with CQP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LNG jumps, then CQP could also see price increases.