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HOV vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HOV is a mid-sized homebuilder currently navigating margin pressure, elevated sales incentives, and recent quarterly losses, while TOL is a large luxury-home builder delivering more stable profitability and positive earnings surprises.
- TOL has a materially stronger balance sheet, an active share-buyback program, and a recurring dividend, whereas HOV offers no dividend and carries a more volatile, higher-risk profile.
- Both names face the same housing headwinds — volatile mortgage rates and elevated incentives — but TOL has shown more consistent order growth and pricing power in the luxury segment.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, earnings stability, and relative positioning, the AI favors TOL over HOV in the current environment.
- For more detail, explore HOV Major News, HOV Today's Price Move, TOL Major News, and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see which strategies are performing best right now, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating U.S. homebuilders often weigh size, customer base, and financial resilience side by side. This comparison examines two publicly traded builders at opposite ends of the residential spectrum: Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV), a mid-sized builder focused on entry-level and move-up homes, and Toll Brothers (TOL), a leading luxury-home specialist. Both operate in the same cyclical, interest-rate-sensitive market, yet their recent earnings, margin trends, and balance-sheet profiles have diverged. For traders assessing relative performance and market positioning — and for longer-term investors weighing stability against recovery potential — understanding where these two stocks diverge offers a useful lens on the broader homebuilding sector.
HOV Overview and Recent Performance
Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) designs, builds, and sells single-family homes, townhomes, and active-adult communities across the United States, operating under an asset-light, land-option-heavy model. In recent quarters, the company has faced meaningful earnings pressure. Its fiscal third quarter produced a modest adjusted pretax loss and a third consecutive quarter of per-share losses, with revenue down roughly 12% year over year. The company has leaned heavily on mortgage-rate buydowns and other incentives to sustain sales pace, and its consolidated cancellation rate has climbed above prior-year levels.
That said, sentiment has not been uniformly negative. Management has emphasized a multi-quarter gross-margin recovery, with margins improving sequentially for two straight quarters as newer, higher-margin communities become a larger share of deliveries. Guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter points to higher revenue and a further step up in adjusted gross margin. Still, the stock remains notably volatile — moving more than most peers on a weekly basis — and carries a comparatively small market capitalization, making it more sensitive to shifts in housing demand and rate expectations.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) is one of the largest luxury-home builders in the United States, serving affluent move-up and active-adult buyers with average selling prices that recently exceeded $1 million per home. Its recent results have been comparatively resilient. In both its fiscal second and third quarters, the company beat consensus estimates on earnings and revenue while raising full-year guidance on deliveries, pricing, and margins. Net signed contracts have grown year over year even as broader housing demand has softened, reflecting the relative strength of its higher-income customer base.
Margins have declined from prior-year peaks but remain far above the industry average, supported by favorable product mix and strong design-studio upgrade activity. TOL also pairs solid free-cash-flow generation with active capital returns, repurchasing hundreds of millions of dollars of stock and paying a regular dividend. Its balance sheet is conservatively leveraged, with substantial cash and ample revolver liquidity, providing flexibility to fund land investment, strategic acquisitions, and shareholder returns.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two builders is scale and customer positioning. TOL generates roughly $10 billion in annual revenue from luxury buyers, while HOV is a fraction of that size and serves a more price-sensitive, incentive-dependent buyer. That positioning shapes their risk profiles: HOV has relied on aggressive incentives to maintain pace, which pressures margins and profitability, whereas TOL has preserved higher gross margins and controlled cancellations even as it manages a soft demand backdrop.
Growth drivers differ as well. TOL is expanding community count, entering new markets, and growing orders in the luxury segment, while HOV is in an earlier-stage margin-recovery cycle, working through lower-margin inventory and shifting toward better-underwritten land. On balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns, TOL holds a clear edge, with lower leverage, buybacks, and a dividend. The trade-off is valuation and recovery leverage: HOV may offer greater upside sensitivity if margins keep recovering, but it also carries higher volatility and earnings risk in the near term.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet quality, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI currently leans toward TOL over HOV. The preference reflects observable strengths — consecutive earnings beats, raised guidance, growing orders in the luxury segment, controlled cancellations, and disciplined capital returns — rather than any single catalyst. HOV shows genuine signs of a margin turnaround, but its recent losses, higher incentives, and elevated volatility introduce more uncertainty. This is a probabilistic assessment of current conditions, not a prediction, and it could shift if either company's fundamentals or the broader housing backdrop change materially.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HOV is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
HOV's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HOV turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where HOV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HOV's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HOV as a result. In 68 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
HOV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for HOV moved below the 200-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator for HOV entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. HOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.915) is normal, around the industry mean (1.903). HOV's P/E Ratio (99.924) is considerably higher than the industry average of (10.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 67 of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.656) is normal, around the industry mean (1.903). P/E Ratio (12.268) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
HOV | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 90 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 89 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (69) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as HOV (73). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to HOV’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HOV (90). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than HOV’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as HOV (89). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to HOV’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as HOV (72). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to HOV’s over the last 12 months.
HOV's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (24). This means that HOV’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| HOV | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 81% | 16 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HOV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HOV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HOV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HOV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HOV (@Homebuilding) experienced а -0.62% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +9.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +0.85%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.88%.
Reported Earning Dates
HOV is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+0.85% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.