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ICE vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ICE and NDAQ are both global exchange and market-infrastructure operators, but their growth engines diverge sharply: ICE leans on energy and interest-rate derivatives plus data, while NDAQ tilts toward indexes, listings, and financial technology software.
- ICE delivered faster recent revenue and earnings growth, powered by record derivatives volumes and energy-market volatility, whereas NDAQ posted steadier, subscription-heavy growth with record index inflows.
- NDAQ enjoys a stronger recent analyst posture, while ICE has faced fresh downgrades amid valuation and leverage concerns.
- NDAQ carries a more tech-oriented, recurring-revenue profile, while ICE remains more sensitive to trading volumes and commodity cycles.
- Relative performance has favored NDAQ over the medium term, though both stocks have lagged the broader market across 2026.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to capital-markets infrastructure often encounter two familiar names: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the operator of the New York Stock Exchange and a leader in energy and interest-rate derivatives, and Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ), the technology-driven exchange and indexing franchise. This stock comparison matters because the two companies, while superficially similar, pursue different strategies and respond to different market forces. Momentum traders may prefer the one with stronger relative performance, while long-term investors may weigh recurring revenue quality and growth durability. Understanding their market positioning helps clarify which business is better suited to the current environment.
ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is a global market-infrastructure and data provider spanning exchanges, clearing, fixed-income data services, and mortgage technology. In recent quarters, ICE reported record results driven by surging trading activity: first-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose roughly 37% year over year, with revenue up about 20%, led by a sharp acceleration in energy and financial derivatives volumes as market participants managed geopolitical and interest-rate volatility.
That momentum has cooled in recent weeks. After strong gains, shares eased and have underperformed near term, and analyst sentiment has become more mixed, with at least one major brokerage downgrading the stock and citing a more range-bound outlook. Broader investor focus has centered on execution risk around elevated spending on data centers and AI-related infrastructure, as well as integration of recent acquisitions. Despite the near-term pause, ICE retains dominant positions in energy benchmarks and mortgage-technology workflows, giving it durable franchise value.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) has evolved from an equities exchange into a diversified technology company operating through three segments: Capital Access Platforms (listings, data, and indexes), Financial Technology (including the Verafin and Adenza businesses), and Market Services (trading). Recent quarters showed broad-based double-digit revenue growth, with adjusted EPS climbing roughly 22% year over year in the first quarter and accelerating further in the second quarter.
A defining theme has been index strength: Nasdaq's index-linked exchange-traded product assets under management (AUM) surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, and the company captured several of the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) of the period, including a record-setting listing. Its financial-technology arm, anchored by recurring, subscription-like revenue and growing AI-enabled compliance tools, has also expanded its client base steadily. NDAQ has nonetheless lagged the broader market across 2026, as investors balance strong fundamentals against a premium valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is business mix. ICE derives a larger share of revenue from transaction volumes, particularly in energy and rates, making it more cyclically sensitive and responsive to volatility. NDAQ has built a more diversified, subscription-weighted model, with roughly three-quarters of revenue from Solutions and a heavy emphasis on recurring, software-based income.
On growth drivers, ICE benefits from structural demand for risk management and data, plus a mortgage-technology recovery, while NDAQ's catalysts include index inflows, the IPO calendar, and AI-driven compliance software. Risk profiles also differ: ICE faces scrutiny over leverage and elevated capital spending, while NDAQ contends with a higher valuation and integration costs from recent acquisitions. Sector exposure is another differentiator, with ICE more tied to commodities and rates, and NDAQ more exposed to equities, technology, and regulatory-software budgets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward NDAQ in the current environment. Its steadier, recurring-revenue composition, stronger recent analyst consensus, and visible catalysts in index inflows and AI-enabled financial technology suggest more consistent trend characteristics and fewer near-term disruptions. ICE, while posting impressive recent volume-driven growth, shows more mixed momentum and fresh downgrade pressure. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, and relative positioning could shift quickly with changes in volatility, interest rates, or capital-markets activity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Buy and NDAQ is a Buy.
ICE in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 40 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 182 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 158 of 333 cases where ICE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
ICE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.323) is normal, around the industry mean (4.167). P/E Ratio (24.602) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.375). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
NDAQ's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 46 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 340 cases where NDAQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.115) is normal, around the industry mean (4.167). P/E Ratio (31.705) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.375). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
ICE | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ICE's Valuation (87) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NDAQ (88). This means that ICE’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (48). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's SMR Rating (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (59). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (18). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (61). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 54% | 22 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 43% | 1 day ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +12.16% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +3.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +6.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +12.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.91%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+6.09% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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