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ICE vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
1. Key Takeaways
- ICE is a diversified global market-infrastructure giant, with energy and commodities futures, fixed-income data, and mortgage technology as core growth engines.
- NDAQ leans toward listings, indexing, and subscription-based financial technology (FinTech), with roughly three-quarters of revenue now recurring in nature.
- NDAQ has shown stronger relative momentum in recent quarters, while ICE has lagged the broader market despite record revenue growth.
- ICE trades at a lower forward earnings multiple than NDAQ, reflecting different growth profiles and investor expectations.
- Both firms are compounding recurring revenue and integrating AI into their product lines, but their catalysts and risk exposures differ materially.
2. Introduction
Intercontinental Exchange and Nasdaq are two of the most prominent publicly traded exchange and financial-infrastructure operators in the world, yet they pursue distinct strategies. ICE dominates global derivatives, energy benchmarks, fixed-income data, and mortgage technology, while NDAQ has evolved into a listings, indexing, and financial-software powerhouse. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and exposure to different growth drivers within the capital-markets sector. By examining recent results, sentiment, and structural differences, readers can better assess how each company may respond to shifting market conditions.
3. ICE Overview and Recent Performance
Intercontinental Exchange operates global exchanges and clearinghouses, including the New York Stock Exchange, alongside a large fixed-income data and analytics franchise and a leading U.S. mortgage-technology platform. Recent market activity has been mixed for ICE shares: the stock has declined over the past year and has underperformed the broader S&P 500, even as the underlying business posted record results. In its most recent quarters, ICE delivered double-digit revenue growth on strong energy and interest-rate activity, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed sharply year over year.
Sentiment has been shaped by several catalysts, including a planned acquisition of fixed-income trading platform MarketAxess, a $600 million investment in prediction-market firm Polymarket, a private-credit reference data launch, and a push into GPU compute futures tied to tokenized computing pricing. These moves signal a broadening data and technology strategy. Despite solid fundamentals, integration costs, elevated operating expenses, and a comparatively defensive share price have kept investor enthusiasm measured, with ICE trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple below many peers.
4. NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq, Inc. operates the Nasdaq stock exchange and has transformed into a technology-driven provider of listings, index products, market data, and FinTech solutions spanning financial-crime management, regulatory technology, and capital-markets software. NDAQ has delivered broad-based, double-digit net revenue growth in recent quarters, with non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings rising roughly 20% year over year. Index assets under management (AUM) surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, and the exchange won a high share of major initial public offerings (IPOs), including several record-breaking listings.
Momentum has been relatively firm, though the shares pulled back from their 52-week high and sit modestly lower year to date. Growth is increasingly powered by recurring, subscription-style revenue: its Solutions segment now represents roughly three-quarters of net revenue, with annualized recurring revenue (ARR) and software-as-a-service (SaaS) revenue expanding steadily. Investor attention has focused on the strength of the Verafin financial-crime franchise, agentic AI adoption, and a healthy IPO pipeline, balanced against a meaningful debt load tied to the earlier Adenza acquisition.
5. Trending AI Robots
Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots that actively trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and basket of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only a small subset of these bots is well-suited to the current environment at any given moment. Tickeron curates the most relevant and best-performing bots in a dedicated Trending AI Robots section, helping traders filter through the noise and focus on strategies aligned with today's market dynamics. Whether a trader favors short-term momentum, swing trading, or longer-horizon trend following, these automated systems offer a data-driven starting point for research. To explore the bots currently leading the rankings and see their real-time statistics, visit the Trending AI Robots page.
6. Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ICE and NDAQ lies in their business-model mix. ICE is anchored in transaction-heavy derivatives, energy benchmarks, and fixed-income infrastructure, with mortgage technology adding a cyclical, rate-sensitive layer. NDAQ is more exposed to listings, indexing, and subscription software, giving it a higher and growing share of recurring revenue. This makes NDAQ's earnings somewhat less tied to day-to-day trading volumes, while ICE captures upside when energy and rate-market volatility rises.
On recent momentum, NDAQ has been the stronger performer, holding up better over the trailing year and carrying a more bullish analyst consensus, while ICE has lagged despite record revenue. On valuation, ICE trades at a lower forward P/E, which some investors read as relative value and others as a signal of slower perceived growth. Risk factors also diverge: ICE faces exposure to energy-market cycles, mortgage-industry conditions, and acquisition-integration costs, whereas NDAQ contends with IPO-environment sensitivity, competitive pressure in listings, and elevated leverage from the Adenza deal. Both benefit from the secular shift toward electronification, data monetization, and AI-enabled workflows.
7. Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, recurring-revenue durability, and recent relative strength, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for NDAQ in the current environment. The company's steadier momentum, high recurring-revenue mix, expanding index franchise, and healthy listings pipeline present a more consistent trend profile than ICE's recent underperformance, despite ICE's stronger absolute scale and diversified asset-class reach. That said, ICE's lower valuation, record results, and multiple long-horizon catalysts mean the gap is not decisive. A probabilistic, data-driven model would favor NDAQ on trend consistency while acknowledging that ICE retains structural advantages that could close the gap if energy-market volatility or acquisition synergies accelerate.
8. Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ICE is a Hold and NDAQ is a Hold.
ICE's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for ICE entered a downward trend on October 14, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 209 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 131 of the 209 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ICE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ICE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ICE as a result. In 37 of 70 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ICE just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ICE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 22 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
ICE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.33% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ICE advanced for three days, in 187 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ICE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.905) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (21.567) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.553) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
NDAQ's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NDAQ moved out of oversold territory on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 16 of the 23 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 52 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 226 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 60 cases where NDAQ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
NDAQ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator for NDAQ entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.318) is normal, around the industry mean (-5.093). P/E Ratio (27.003) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.252). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ICE | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NDAQ's Valuation (82) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (83). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (55). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's SMR Rating (52) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (59). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (48). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as ICE (80). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to ICE’s over the last 12 months.
| ICE | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 39% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ICE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ICE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ICE’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ICE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ICE (@Financial Publishing/Services) experienced а +1.97% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +1.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +2.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.21%.
Reported Earning Dates
ICE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Financial Publishing/Services (+2.41% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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ICE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ICE has been loosely correlated with SPGI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ICE jumps, then SPGI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ICE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE | 100% | +2.13% | ||
| SPGI - ICE | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.97% | ||
| TW - ICE | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.19% | ||
| TRU - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +10.73% | ||
| MCO - ICE | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.52% | ||
| MSCI - ICE | 49% Loosely correlated | +2.60% | ||
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NDAQ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NDAQ has been closely correlated with JEF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NDAQ jumps, then JEF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NDAQ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 100% | +1.67% | ||
| JEF - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +2.25% | ||
| MS - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| GS - NDAQ | 70% Closely correlated | +1.43% | ||
| RJF - NDAQ | 69% Closely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| SF - NDAQ | 66% Closely correlated | +1.31% | ||
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