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ING vs SMFG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ING Groep N.V. (ING) vs. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ING Groep N.V. delivered higher first-quarter net income and a new €1 billion buyback, supported by a strong CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) capital ratio near 13%.
- Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group posted record annual profit and a 33% jump in its latest quarterly earnings, fueled by Japan's rising interest rates.
- Both lenders are actively returning capital through buybacks, but their drivers differ: European rate normalization versus Japan's shift away from deflation.
- SMFG has shown stronger recent momentum, while ING trades at a lower valuation multiple and higher dividend yield.
- Their relative performance hinges on regional monetary policy, credit cycles, and currency exposure rather than a single shared catalyst.
Introduction
Investors evaluating global banking exposure often weigh established European lenders against Japan's resurgent financial sector. This stock comparison examines ING (ING Groep N.V.), the Netherlands' largest bank, and SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc.), Japan's second-largest lender. Both are well-capitalized, dividend-paying institutions benefiting from higher interest rates, yet they operate in sharply different monetary and economic environments. Income-focused investors, value seekers, and traders tracking relative performance and market positioning may find the contrast instructive. Understanding how each bank converts macro tailwinds into earnings growth, capital returns, and share-price momentum is central to assessing which name currently offers the more compelling risk-reward profile.
ING Overview and Recent Performance
ING is a diversified European financial institution providing retail and wholesale banking across the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and other markets, alongside a growing fee-based business. In recent market activity, the stock has advanced as the bank reported first-quarter net income of approximately €1.56 billion, up roughly 7% year over year, supported by commercial net interest income and increased customer activity. Management unveiled a new €1 billion share buyback and guided toward income exceeding €25 billion for full-year 2027.
Sentiment has been further reinforced by analyst upgrades and rising price targets, while the bank's CET1 ratio of 13.0% remains comfortably above regulatory requirements. Investors have responded to consistent capital returns and a resilient European rate backdrop. The stock trades near the middle of its 52-week range, reflecting a balance between steady earnings execution and sensitivity to European economic conditions.
SMFG Overview and Recent Performance
SMFG is a Tokyo-based financial holding company operating commercial banking, leasing, securities, and consumer finance, primarily in Japan with growing international reach. Its recent performance has been robust: the group booked a record annual net profit of about 1.58 trillion yen and, in its latest quarter, net profit rose 33% to roughly 501 billion yen, surpassing analyst estimates. This strength stems from the end of Japan's deflation, renewed corporate lending and M&A (mergers and acquisitions) activity, and Bank of Japan rate hikes that have widened lending margins.
Management has paired earnings growth with aggressive shareholder returns, including a 180 billion yen buyback, share cancellations, and a two-for-one stock split to broaden ownership. The ADR (American Depositary Receipt) has climbed significantly over the past year, and the shares trade near the upper portion of their 52-week range, reflecting strong relative performance and favorable momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between ING and SMFG is their monetary backdrop. ING operates in a mature European rate environment where net interest income is stabilizing, forcing growth to come from fee income, cost discipline, and capital returns. SMFG, by contrast, is riding a structural tailwind as Japan normalizes rates after decades of deflation, directly expanding loan spreads and lending demand.
On valuation, ING trades at a lower price-to-earnings multiple and offers a higher dividend yield, appealing to income and value investors. SMFG carries a richer multiple but has demonstrated faster earnings growth and stronger recent price momentum. Risk profiles also diverge: ING faces European credit and mortgage-margin pressures, while SMFG's key watchpoints include loan quality and the pace of future Bank of Japan tightening. Sector exposure is similarly distinct, with ING concentrated in euro-area retail and wholesale banking and SMFG diversified across Japanese corporate finance and expanding global markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SMFG in the current environment. The stock exhibits stronger trend consistency, more pronounced earnings acceleration, and a clearer catalyst path driven by Japan's interest-rate normalization and record profit forecasts. ING's steadier valuation and income profile remain attractive, but its momentum and growth trajectory appear comparatively subdued. A systematic approach would assign higher conviction to SMFG's relative positioning while acknowledging that currency volatility and policy shifts could alter the balance over time.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ING is a Buy and SMFG is a StrongBuy.
ING sees its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
On November 04, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for ING moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 42 of the 53 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ING's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ING just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where ING's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +1.73% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ING advanced for three days, in 253 of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
ING may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
ING moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ING crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ING declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
The Aroon Indicator for ING entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ING’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.861) is normal, around the industry mean (1.500). P/E Ratio (14.216) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.708). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.140) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.050) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.874) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
SMFG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SMFG turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where SMFG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SMFG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 9 of 13 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 55 cases where SMFG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SMFG as a result. In 63 of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMFG advanced for three days, in 244 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
SMFG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SMFG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMFG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMFG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Aroon Indicator for SMFG entered a downward trend on November 03, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 20, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 24 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SMFG's P/B Ratio (0.010) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.500). SMFG's P/E Ratio (0.092) is considerably lower than the industry average of (11.708). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.432) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.218) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMFG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ING | SMFG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 4 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 1 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 97 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SMFG's Valuation (24) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ING (73) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that SMFG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ING’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ING (5) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to ING’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's SMR Rating (1) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ING (4) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to ING’s over the last 12 months.
SMFG's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as ING (59) in the Financial Conglomerates industry. This means that SMFG’s stock grew similarly to ING’s over the last 12 months.
ING's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is significantly better than the same rating for SMFG (97) in the Major Banks industry. This means that ING’s stock grew significantly faster than SMFG’s over the last 12 months.
| ING | SMFG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 44% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 41% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ING’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while SMFG’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ING’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- SMFG’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ING’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SMFG’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ING’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- SMFG’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ING (@Major Banks) experienced а -0.15% price change this week, while SMFG (@Major Banks) price change was +2.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Major Banks industry was -1.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
ING is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
SMFG is expected to report earnings on Nov 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Major Banks (-1.07% weekly)Major banks are among the biggest companies in the world, often times with global reach and market capitalizations in the multi-billions. Large banks often have multiple arms spanning different disciplines, from deposits, to investment banking, to wealth management and insurance. The biggest banks often have key competitive advantages over smaller players in the industry in terms of brand recognition, cost of capital, and efficiency. Think J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
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ING and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ING has been closely correlated with BCS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ING jumps, then BCS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ING | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ING | 100% | +6.28% | ||
| BCS - ING | 79% Closely correlated | +5.80% | ||
| BBVA - ING | 77% Closely correlated | +6.12% | ||
| SAN - ING | 74% Closely correlated | +6.44% | ||
| HSBC - ING | 74% Closely correlated | +5.78% | ||
| UBS - ING | 67% Closely correlated | +5.56% | ||
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SMFG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SMFG has been closely correlated with MUFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SMFG jumps, then MUFG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SMFG | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMFG | 100% | +3.14% | ||
| MUFG - SMFG | 90% Closely correlated | +3.29% | ||
| ING - SMFG | 57% Loosely correlated | +6.28% | ||
| BCS - SMFG | 54% Loosely correlated | +5.80% | ||
| SAN - SMFG | 53% Loosely correlated | +6.44% | ||
| HSBC - SMFG | 52% Loosely correlated | +5.78% | ||
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