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KBH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Valuation gap: KBH trades near $55, while TOL hovers around $145, reflecting a higher price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio advantage for the luxury builder.
- Growth dynamics: KB Home is capitalizing on first‑time buyer demand and price‑flexible designs; Toll Brothers leans on premium pricing and upscale community amenities.
- Interest‑rate sensitivity: Both stocks feel pressure from rising mortgage rates, but KB Home’s more affordable product mix cushions the impact better than Toll’s luxury focus.
- Balance‑sheet health: KB Home holds roughly $200 million in cash with modest debt, whereas Toll Brothers reports over $1 billion in cash and a debt‑to‑equity (D/E) ratio around 34%, indicating stronger liquidity.
- AI‑driven sentiment: Recent market‑trend analysis shows TOL displaying a slightly more consistent up‑trend, but KB Home’s recent earnings beat adds upward bias.
Introduction
The residential construction sector continues to be a focal point for traders monitoring the interplay between mortgage rates, inventory constraints, and consumer confidence. Two publicly traded builders—KBH (KB Home) and TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.)—represent opposite ends of the market spectrum: affordable single‑family homes versus upscale luxury communities. This comparison targets both growth‑oriented investors and risk‑averse traders who need a concise, data‑driven snapshot of how these stocks behave under current macro conditions.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) is one of the largest U.S. homebuilders focused on first‑time and move‑up buyers. The company operates in 49 markets across nine states, delivering roughly 12,900 homes in the latest reporting year. Recent weeks have seen the share price trade in a narrow $51–$55 range, edging slightly lower after a modest earnings miss versus consensus, though revenue held steady at $6.24 billion. Analysts cite the firm’s “affordable‑design” platform—allowing buyers to personalize homes at a price point below local rent—as a catalyst for resilient demand despite the Federal Reserve’s higher benchmark rates.
Key developments from the past month include:
- Launch of a new “KB Home Office” package targeting remote‑work buyers, adding a modest upside to average selling price (ASP) estimates.
- Securing a strategic land acquisition in the Phoenix metro area, expanding inventory in a high‑growth market.
- Continued emphasis on ENERGY STAR® certification, which supports the company’s sustainability narrative and may improve loan‑program eligibility.
These factors have helped maintain a modest dividend yield of roughly 1.9%, while the company’s cash‑flow generation stayed positive, offsetting a 22% year‑over‑year revenue dip reported in the most recent quarter.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL) designs, builds, markets and finances luxury homes in more than 60 U.S. markets. The firm’s product mix includes detached single‑family homes, high‑end townhouses, and the “City Living” condominium line. Over the last several weeks the stock has oscillated between $140 and $148, reflecting a slight pullback after the company disclosed a $2.15 billion revenue figure for the latest quarter—up 15% year‑over‑year—but a modest net‑income increase of 7%.
Recent catalysts for Toll Brothers include:
- Completion of the Buffington Homes acquisition in Arkansas, adding a pipeline of entry‑level luxury homes.
- Announcement of a new “Smart‑Home” technology partnership, which may boost premium pricing in forthcoming communities.
- CEO Karl Mistry’s recent appointment, signaling continuity in strategic direction and potential cost‑discipline initiatives.
Despite higher pricing power, the company’s profit margin sits near 12%, and its debt‑to‑equity ratio of roughly 34% suggests a manageable leverage profile. The dividend yield stands at about 0.75%, and the firm’s forward P/E of 11.2 indicates modest growth expectations from the market.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model: KB Home emphasizes affordability and volume, targeting first‑time buyers with flexible floor‑plan options. Toll Brothers focuses on premium homes, catering to move‑up, empty‑nesters and second‑home buyers with higher ASPs and amenity‑rich communities.
Growth Drivers: KB Home’s growth stems from geographic expansion into Sun Belt markets and an “office‑compatible” home package that leverages remote‑work trends. Toll Brothers derives growth from price‑compression capacity in luxury segments, smart‑home integrations, and acquisitions that broaden its product pipeline.
Recent Momentum: Over the past month KB Home’s price shows a modest downtrend, offset by earnings‑beat optimism. Toll Brothers shows a slightly more stable uptrend, buoyed by revenue acceleration and a higher dividend payout.
Risk Factors: Both firms are exposed to rising mortgage rates, but KB Home’s lower‑priced homes are less rate‑sensitive than Toll’s luxury offerings, which depend on discretionary spending. Additionally, KB Home carries higher inventory risk in slower markets, while Toll faces execution risk on high‑margin projects.
Sector Exposure: Both belong to the Consumer Cyclical “Residential Construction” industry, yet they occupy distinct price tiers, resulting in different beta (volatility) readings—approximately 1.4 for KB Home versus 1.5 for Toll Brothers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable metrics—trend consistency, liquidity, recent earnings momentum, and sector positioning—Tickeron’s AI currently leans marginally toward TOL. The luxury builder exhibits a steadier price trajectory and stronger revenue growth, which the AI weights favorably for short‑to‑mid‑term positioning. However, the probability margin is modest; any sustained increase in mortgage rates or a slowdown in high‑end buyer sentiment could quickly tilt the preference toward KBH, whose affordable model is better insulated against rate hikes.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.”
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KBH is a StrongBuy and TOL is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.77% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +6.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +2.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Jun 23, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+2.75% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| KBH | TOL | KBH / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.38B | 13.7B | 25% |
| EBITDA | 470M | 1.7B | 28% |
| Gain YTD | -3.394 | 9.189 | -37% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.42 | 11.18 | 93% |
| Revenue | 5.92B | 11B | 54% |
| Total Cash | 202M | 1.11B | 18% |
| Total Debt | 1.92B | 2.92B | 66% |
KBH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 18 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KBH's Valuation (9) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (67). This means that KBH’s stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (81). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (76). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (50). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's P/E Growth Rating (18) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (25). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 68% | 19 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 7 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 64% |
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TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.