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KBH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KBH (KB Home) targets first-time and first move-up buyers through a build-to-order model, while TOL (Toll Brothers) focuses on the luxury and move-up segments with a much higher average selling price.
- TOL has demonstrated stronger relative momentum, with positive order growth and a raised full-year outlook, whereas KBH has reported year-over-year revenue declines and a cautious analyst response.
- TOL trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple and carries a stronger balance sheet and higher return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholder capital) than KBH.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: TOL — based on trend consistency, order momentum, and financial stability, the AI framework currently favors Toll Brothers over KB Home in this stock comparison.
- For additional context, explore KBH Major News and KBH Today's Price Move, as well as TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see which stocks AI-driven strategies are prioritizing right now, explore the curated Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
KB Home and Toll Brothers are two prominent U.S. homebuilders, but they serve very different corners of the housing market. KBH leans toward entry-level and first move-up buyers with an emphasis on customization, while TOL concentrates on luxury and higher-priced move-up homes. This contrast makes their relative performance a useful case study for traders and investors evaluating how different business models respond to the same interest-rate and affordability environment. For those focused on momentum, valuation, and market positioning, comparing these two names offers a practical lens on where resilience and risk currently sit within the homebuilding sector.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KB Home is a diversified homebuilder headquartered in Los Angeles, operating across states such as California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona. The company is best known for its build-to-order approach, which lets buyers personalize floor plans and features — a strategy that can support pricing but also extends construction timelines. In recent weeks, KBH has faced a softer setup. The company's most recent quarterly results showed revenue down roughly 20% year over year, even as earnings per share (EPS, the portion of profit allocated to each outstanding share) modestly exceeded expectations. Analysts have responded cautiously, with several firms lowering price targets and maintaining Hold or Underweight ratings. A return to the build-to-order model has been framed as a potential margin stabilizer, but near-term demand and affordability pressures have kept sentiment measured.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers is a luxury homebuilder whose average delivered home price now exceeds $1 million. Its customer base is generally more affluent and less sensitive to mortgage-rate swings than the entry-level segment, which has helped insulate its order activity. In recent market activity, TOL has reported net signed contract growth in both units and dollar value, even as the broader housing backdrop remained subdued. The company raised its full-year delivery and margin guidance, repurchased shares, and increased its dividend, signaling confidence in its balance sheet and cash generation. While gross margins have been pressured by inventory impairments and higher costs, the luxury segment has held up comparatively well, supporting a more constructive analyst tone and firmer relative price momentum.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between these two builders is their customer focus. KBH is more exposed to affordability-sensitive, first-time buyers, which tends to make its order flow more reactive to mortgage-rate moves and economic sentiment. TOL, by comparison, serves wealthier buyers who are less rate-sensitive, providing a degree of demand stability. On valuation, TOL trades at a lower forward P/E and generates a notably higher ROE, while KBH carries a higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market), implying greater sensitivity to market swings. Balance-sheet strength also differs: Toll Brothers maintains lower debt relative to equity and higher liquidity. The trade-off is that KBH's build-to-order model and lower price points could recover quickly if affordability improves, while TOL's premium positioning offers steadier execution in a choppy market.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as order momentum, valuation, balance-sheet strength, and trend consistency, Tickeron's AI framework would currently lean toward TOL in this comparison. Toll Brothers has demonstrated firmer contract growth, a stronger profitability profile, and a more resilient customer base during a difficult housing cycle. KB Home retains a credible recovery path if entry-level demand reaccelerates, but its recent revenue declines and cautious analyst sentiment suggest a less consistent near-term trend. As always, this assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current data rather than a definitive prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KBH is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
KBH in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026
KBH moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 27 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KBH as a result. In 54 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBH just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where KBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for KBH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Following a +6.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBH advanced for three days, in 207 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 173 of 233 cases where KBH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KBH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 58 cases where KBH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
KBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. KBH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.812) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.071) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.573) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KBH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 57 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 269 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 8 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
KBH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 8 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KBH's Valuation (50) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (70). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (79). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (58) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (79). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (48). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (19). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 68% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.15% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
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