Advertisement
KBH vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KB Home (KBH) serves first-time and move-up buyers with a more affordable product line, making it more sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations and consumer confidence.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) focuses on the luxury segment, with an average selling price near $1 million and approximately 23% of buyers paying all cash, providing greater insulation from interest rate sensitivity.
- Over the trailing one-year period, TOL has delivered a return of roughly 23%, significantly outpacing KBH, which has returned approximately 2% in the same window.
- KBH's revenue declined 27% year-over-year in its most recent quarter while TOL reported a smaller 7.6% revenue contraction, reflecting divergent demand dynamics across price tiers.
- Both stocks carry identical beta values near 1.34, but TOL's higher market capitalization (~$14.6 billion vs. ~$3.5 billion) and Fortune 500 status suggest greater institutional confidence.
- Analyst consensus leans more favorably toward TOL ("Moderate Buy") than KBH ("Hold"), reflecting the luxury builder's stronger recent execution and earnings trajectory.
Introduction
The U.S. homebuilding sector sits at a critical juncture in mid-2026. Elevated mortgage rates, persistent affordability challenges, and shifting consumer sentiment continue to reshape demand across price tiers. Within this landscape, KBH and TOL offer investors two sharply contrasting exposures to residential construction. KB Home targets the entry-level and first move-up buyer — a cohort acutely affected by borrowing costs — while Toll Brothers caters to the luxury market, where cash buyers and substantial home equity cushion the impact of rate volatility. This stock comparison examines how each company is navigating the current environment, evaluates relative performance, and explores which stock might hold the edge in today's market.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KBH, officially KB Home, is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, operating across 50 markets with a nearly 70-year track record and over 700,000 homes built. The company primarily serves first-time, first move-up, and active adult buyers, emphasizing affordability, personalization, and sustainability — having delivered more ENERGY STAR certified homes than any other builder.
In recent months, KB Home has faced meaningful headwinds. Its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, released in late June, showed total revenues of $1.11 billion — a 27% decline year-over-year, though modestly above consensus estimates. Homes delivered fell 23% to 2,395 units, while the average selling price (ASP) dropped 5% to approximately $461,900. Housing gross margins contracted sharply to 15.2% from 19.3% in the prior-year period, pressured by price reductions, higher relative land costs, and reduced operating leverage. Net orders declined 4% year-over-year, and the backlog shrank 5% to 4,526 homes. On a positive note, the company's strategic shift toward Built-to-Order (where buyers customize before construction) has gained traction, representing 73% of net orders during the quarter. KB Home was also recently named to TIME's America's Best Companies 2026 list, reflecting institutional recognition of its brand and operational resilience. The board declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend in early July, underscoring ongoing capital return discipline.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
TOL, Toll Brothers, is the nation's leading luxury homebuilder and a Fortune 500 company. Founded in 1967, the company operates across more than 60 U.S. markets and serves first-time, move-up, active-adult, and second-home buyers — though its core customer skews toward affluent households. Toll Brothers has been named the #1 Most Admired Home Builder by Fortune magazine for nine consecutive years.
Toll Brothers has demonstrated stronger relative momentum in the current cycle. In its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results, the company reported $2.53 billion in revenue — beating analyst expectations, though down 7.6% year-over-year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.72, exceeding the $2.58 consensus estimate. The company delivered 2,491 homes at an average price of approximately $1,009,000, with adjusted gross margins of 26.2% — 70 basis points above guidance. Net orders grew 7% year-over-year, and community count expanded to 459, up from 421 a year earlier. Toll Brothers also raised its full-year guidance across key metrics, including deliveries, ASP, and gross margin. The company continues to return capital aggressively, targeting $6.5 billion in share repurchases for fiscal 2026, while also increasing its quarterly dividend. In early July 2026, Citigroup upgraded TOL shares to Buy, citing the builder's resilient luxury positioning.
Trending AI Robots
In an era where market-moving data emerges at unprecedented speed, AI-powered trading tools have become essential for investors seeking an analytical edge. Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of top-performing AI trading bots from a library of hundreds that trade thousands of different tickers across diverse market conditions. Each bot employs distinct trading styles — ranging from swing trading and trend-following to momentum-based and mean-reversion strategies — while operating across multiple timeframes and asset classes. Only the bots demonstrating the strongest alignment with current market dynamics earn a place in this featured section. Many bots on the platform exhibit win rates in the range of 65% to 85% and trade with clear, rule-based discipline that removes emotional bias. For traders and investors looking to augment their decision-making with data-driven insights, exploring the Trending AI Robots page offers a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental distinction between KB Home and Toll Brothers lies in their target customer segments — and by extension, the macroeconomic vulnerabilities each faces. KB Home's buyer is typically a first-time or first move-up household that depends heavily on mortgage financing. With 30-year mortgage rates hovering near multi-decade highs, this cohort has seen purchasing power erode substantially, translating directly into KBH's 27% revenue decline, falling ASPs, and compressed margins.
Toll Brothers, by contrast, serves a wealthier demographic. Approximately 23% of its buyers pay in all cash — well above the company's long-term average of about 20% — and those who finance typically bring substantial home equity to the transaction, with average loan-to-value ratios around 69%. This structural advantage means Toll Brothers can sustain healthier gross margins (26.2% adjusted versus KBH's 15.7%) even in a high-rate environment. The luxury builder's community count is also advancing at an 8–10% annual clip, supporting future revenue growth.
From a valuation standpoint, both stocks trade at relatively modest multiples compared to the broader market. KBH carries a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) near 13.8 with a price-to-book ratio of roughly 0.92, while TOL trades at a trailing P/E around 11.8. The difference in market capitalization — approximately $3.5 billion for KBH versus $14.6 billion for TOL — reflects not only Toll Brothers' larger scale but also the market's willingness to assign a premium to its more resilient business model. Short interest of roughly 20% of KBH's float indicates elevated bearish sentiment around the entry-level builder, while TOL's consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" suggests broader analyst confidence.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable data across trend consistency, earnings momentum, margin resilience, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI analytical framework would likely favor TOL over KBH in the current market environment. Toll Brothers' stronger price performance over the trailing one-year period, upward revisions to forward guidance, expanding community count, and structurally higher gross margins present a more consistent trend profile. The luxury builder's cash-buyer cushion and affluent customer base reduce vulnerability to the most acute risk in the sector — sustained high mortgage rates throttling affordability. While KB Home's Built-to-Order pivot and brand recognition remain meaningful assets, its earnings contraction, slimmer margins, and higher sensitivity to consumer credit conditions suggest greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current data rather than any long-term prediction; market conditions can shift, and each stock may present opportunities under different macro regimes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KBH is a Buy and TOL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -3.15% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was -2.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Sep 23, 2026.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Aug 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.97% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| KBH | TOL | KBH / TOL | |
| Capitalization | 3.37B | 13.6B | 25% |
| EBITDA | 368M | 1.7B | 22% |
| Gain YTD | -1.658 | 8.481 | -20% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.37 | 11.09 | 121% |
| Revenue | 5.5B | 11B | 50% |
| Total Cash | 201M | 1.11B | 18% |
| Total Debt | 2B | 2.92B | 68% |
KBH | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 10 Undervalued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 42 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KBH's Valuation (10) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TOL (62). This means that KBH’s stock grew somewhat faster than TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KBH (75). This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's SMR Rating (55) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (82). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (58). This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as TOL (27). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 53% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 69% | 7 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 62% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 65% |
Advertisement
KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.