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KBH vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both KBH (KB Home) and MTH (Meritage Homes) are U.S. homebuilders confronting the same headwinds: elevated mortgage rates, affordability pressure, and softening buyer demand.
- KB Home has pivoted aggressively toward a built-to-order model (roughly 74% of deliveries) but has posted steeper revenue declines and margin compression in recent quarters.
- Meritage Homes carries a stronger balance sheet, with a net debt-to-capital ratio near 18.9%, positive free cash flow, and a higher dividend yield than KB Home.
- Both stocks hold consensus "Hold" ratings and have seen downward analyst estimate revisions, reflecting a cyclical housing slowdown.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Meritage Homes (MTH) is the favored ticker of the two, based on relative price stability, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
- Explore deeper coverage with KBH Major News and KBH Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven strategies are positioning across the market, explore the Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
KB Home and Meritage Homes are two of the largest publicly traded U.S. homebuilders, and both are navigating a challenging period for residential construction marked by higher borrowing costs and weaker buyer traffic. This stock comparison is designed for investors and traders who follow the housing cycle and want to understand how two similarly exposed companies are diverging in financial strength, market positioning, and relative performance. Because both names are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and consumer confidence, comparing their recent results and balance-sheet profiles offers a useful lens on which business may be better positioned to weather the current downturn.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KB Home, founded in 1957 and headquartered in Los Angeles, builds attached and detached single-family homes, townhomes, and condominiums for first-time, move-up, and active adult buyers, while also providing mortgage banking and title services. It operates primarily across California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, Idaho, and Washington. In recent quarters, KBH has prioritized a built-to-order strategy, which now accounts for about 74% of deliveries and has meaningfully shortened build times.
That strategic shift has not yet offset demand weakness. Revenue has declined roughly 20% year over year in recent periods, and housing gross margin compressed to about 16.5% from 18.2% a year earlier amid pricing pressure and rising costs. The stock has traded within a 52-week range of roughly $40.92 to $67.57, down about 19% over the trailing 52 weeks, and carries a consensus "Hold" rating with a modest price target. Several analysts have recently lowered their targets, reflecting caution on near-term affordability headwinds.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes, founded in 1985 and based in Scottsdale, Arizona, is the fifth-largest public homebuilder in the United States. The company specializes in energy-efficient, entry-level and first move-up homes concentrated in the Sun Belt and Southeast, spanning about 12 states. MTH has historically emphasized faster cycle times and a spec-focused, cost-disciplined operating model.
In its most recent quarterly report, Meritage posted revenue of about $1.17 billion, down 17.9% year over year and below consensus, while adjusted earnings per share also missed estimates. Management responded by pulling back land investment nearly 40% year over year and withdrawing guidance, citing unpredictable market conditions. Despite the soft results, the balance sheet remains a differentiator: the company ended the period with about $677 million in cash and a net debt-to-capital ratio near 18.9%. Its stock trades within a 52-week range of roughly $56.66 to $85.38, down about 4% over 52 weeks, with a dividend yield near 3%.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page showcases a curated selection of the platform's AI trading bots. While Tickeron offers hundreds of AI-powered trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers, only the best-performing and most suitable strategies for current market conditions earn a place in this section. Each bot operates with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance metrics, and basket of tickers, allowing traders to match an automated approach to their own objectives and risk tolerance. Exploring the Trending AI Robots can help investors identify data-driven strategies currently showing strength across the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most clearly in operating model and financial positioning. KBH is leaning into built-to-order, which reduces inventory risk and appeals to buyers seeking customization, but it carries greater geographic exposure to the West Coast and a higher debt-to-equity ratio (about 0.56). MTH relies more on efficient, spec-built entry-level homes in the Sun Belt, with a lower debt-to-equity ratio (about 0.38) and positive levered free cash flow.
In terms of momentum, both stocks face downward earnings revisions and softening absorption rates, but Meritage has held up better on a trailing 52-week basis, with a smaller price decline than KB Home. Meritage also offers a higher dividend yield and has returned meaningful capital to shareholders, while KB Home has posted more severe margin compression. The trade-off is that KB Home recently beat quarterly earnings expectations, whereas Meritage missed and withdrew guidance, introducing additional near-term uncertainty.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Weighing observable factors such as balance-sheet strength, free cash flow, dividend yield, relative price stability, and leverage, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MTH over KBH in the current environment. Meritage's lower net debt-to-capital ratio, positive free cash flow, and smaller 52-week drawdown suggest relatively greater resilience during a housing downturn, even as its recent earnings miss and withdrawn guidance introduce caution. KB Home's built-to-order momentum and recent earnings beat are notable positives, but its steeper revenue declines and thinner margins weigh against its relative positioning. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects current data rather than a forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KBH is a Hold and MTH is a Buy.
KBH's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KBH turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where KBH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KBH as a result. In 60 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
KBH moved above its 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.30% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KBH advanced for three days, in 207 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KBH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
KBH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KBH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.811) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). P/E Ratio (12.062) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.573) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KBH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KBH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Momentum Indicator for MTH turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MTH saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for MTH moved below the 200-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.889) is normal, around the industry mean (1.847). P/E Ratio (14.288) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.066). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
KBH | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 49 Fair valued | 43 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 63 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 22 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (49). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (63) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (77). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's SMR Rating (79) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (60). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (17). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 12 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 68% | 16 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а +9.30% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +8.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +1.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Dec 17, 2026.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+1.61% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
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