Advertisement
KBH vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KB Home (KBH) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KBH and MTH are both U.S. homebuilders navigating a challenging housing market shaped by elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints.
- KB Home generates higher total revenue ($6.24 billion in fiscal 2025), while Meritage Homes delivers stronger net income ($453 million) and superior adjusted earnings per share, or EPS ($7.05).
- Meritage Homes ended 2025 with an all-time high community count of 336, positioning it for market share gains, whereas KB Home emphasizes its build-to-order model and customer personalization.
- Both companies have aggressively returned capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, but Meritage has committed to $400 million in buybacks for 2026 alone.
- Margins have compressed across both names, yet Meritage's lower average selling price and spec-focused strategy may offer greater resilience if affordability remains the dominant market theme.
- Tickeron's AI-driven analysis suggests a slight edge for one of these homebuilders based on trend consistency, relative valuation, and capital return momentum.
Introduction
The U.S. homebuilding sector continues to occupy a critical intersection of macroeconomic forces: persistently elevated mortgage interest rates, constrained existing-home supply, and shifting buyer demographics. Within this landscape, KBH (KB Home) and MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) offer contrasting yet overlapping investment narratives. KB Home, with its build-to-order philosophy and higher average selling prices (ASP), appeals to buyers seeking personalization. Meritage Homes, the fifth-largest public homebuilder in the U.S., emphasizes an all-spec, move-in-ready inventory model targeting entry-level and first move-up buyers at more accessible price points. This comparison examines how these two mid-cap builders stack up across revenue scale, profitability, strategic positioning, and market sentiment — providing a data-driven framework for investors evaluating the homebuilding space.
KBH Overview and Recent Performance
KBH, headquartered in Los Angeles, California, is one of the most recognized names in American homebuilding, with operations spanning 49 markets across nine states. The company's build-to-order model — which allows buyers to personalize floor plans, finishes, and features — has historically been a differentiating factor. For fiscal 2025, KB Home reported total revenues of $6.24 billion, though that represented a decline from $6.93 billion in the prior year. Homes delivered fell 9% to approximately 12,900, while the average selling price edged lower to roughly $481,400. Net income came in at $428.8 million, with diluted EPS of $6.15. On an adjusted basis, fourth-quarter EPS reached $1.92, exceeding analyst expectations.
The company's housing gross profit margin contracted to 17.0% in the fourth quarter, compared to 20.9% a year earlier, reflecting price reductions, higher relative land costs, and geographic mix headwinds. Encouragingly, KB Home reduced build times by roughly 20% year-over-year and grew its community count by 5% to 271. The balance sheet remains solid: total liquidity stood at $1.43 billion, and the company completed an upsized $1.20 billion five-year credit facility. Shareholder returns were substantial, with more than $600 million deployed across repurchases and dividends in fiscal 2025 — including $538.5 million in buybacks. Book value per share rose 10% to $61.75. Looking ahead, management guided 2026 housing revenues in a range of $5.10 billion to $6.10 billion.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
MTH, based in Scottsdale, Arizona, ranks as the fifth-largest publicly traded homebuilder in the United States. The company's strategy centers on constructing spec (speculative) homes — move-in-ready inventory that shortens the buyer's timeline from contract to close — with an average sales price considerably below many of its peers. For full-year 2025, Meritage reported home closing revenue of $5.76 billion, down 9% year-over-year, on 15,026 closings. The average sales price on closings declined 5% to approximately $384,000. Net earnings totaled $453 million, yielding diluted EPS of $6.35; adjusted diluted EPS, excluding non-recurring charges related to land deal walk-aways, inventory impairments, and severance costs, came in at $7.05.
Meritage's adjusted home closing gross margin was 20.8% for the full year, down from 25.0% in 2024, pressured by increased incentive utilization and higher lot costs. Notably, the company undertook a deliberate portfolio optimization effort in the fourth quarter, walking away from certain land deals and recording $38.9 million in non-recurring charges to top-grade its land portfolio. The community count reached an all-time high of 336 at year-end 2025, up 15% year-over-year, providing a strong foundation for future absorption as demand conditions stabilize. Meritage's balance sheet is robust: cash totaled $775 million, there were zero borrowings under its revolving credit facility, and the net debt-to-capital ratio was a conservative 16.9%. The company repurchased approximately 6% of outstanding shares in 2025 and has announced plans for an additional $400 million in buybacks during 2026.
Trending AI Robots
In an investing environment where speed, pattern recognition, and objectivity increasingly define success, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated selection of the platform's most compelling AI-driven trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI Trading Bots — each calibrated to trade specific tickers, timeframes, and market conditions — but only the strongest performers earn a place in this featured section. These bots span diverse trading styles, from 5-minute and 15-minute intraday agents to longer-swing 60-minute models, and have demonstrated annualized returns ranging from approximately 34% to over 350% in select cases, with win rates frequently exceeding 60% to 75%. Each robot employs Financial Learning Models (FLMs) that integrate machine learning with technical analysis to identify patterns, manage risk, and execute trades without emotional bias. Whether targeting semiconductors, industrials, energy, or homebuilding stocks, Tickeron's AI bots adapt continuously to shifting market dynamics. To explore which strategies are currently leading, visit Trending AI Robots.
Head-to-Head Comparison
While both KBH and MTH operate in the same cyclical industry, their strategic orientations create materially different risk-and-reward profiles. KB Home's build-to-order model tends to produce a higher average selling price — approximately $481,000 for full-year 2025 versus Meritage's $384,000 — but also introduces longer cycle times and greater sensitivity to consumer confidence fluctuations. Meritage's spec-heavy approach, by contrast, enables rapid backlog conversion (221% in Q4 2025) and appeals to buyers who prioritize move-in readiness and relative affordability.
On financial metrics, Meritage holds the edge in profitability: net income of $453 million compared to KB Home's $429 million, and a higher net margin. Meritage also trades at a slightly lower price-to-earnings ratio, carries more cash ($775 million versus $229 million at KB Home), and boasts a lower net debt-to-capital ratio. KB Home counters with higher total revenue, a larger land portfolio (though scaled back 16% in lots owned or controlled), and a long-established brand identity anchored by its #1 customer satisfaction ranking among national builders.
Both companies face identical macro headwinds — elevated mortgage rates, affordability constraints, and cautious buyer sentiment — but Meritage's aggressive community count expansion (336 at year-end 2025 versus KB Home's 271) and its explicit pivot toward $400 million in 2026 buybacks signal a management team positioning aggressively for the recovery. KB Home's approach is more measured, focusing on cost alignment, build-time efficiency, and maintaining pricing discipline within its build-to-order niche.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable data and market positioning, Tickeron's AI analysis would likely express a modest preference for MTH in the current environment. Meritage's combination of a lower average sales price — which aligns with affordability-constrained demand — its all-time-high community count providing leverage to any demand recovery, and its aggressive capital return program (targeting $400 million in 2026 buybacks) creates a confluence of catalysts that algorithmic models tend to favor. The company's willingness to proactively exit underperforming land positions, despite near-term charges, also signals disciplined capital allocation. KB Home remains a fundamentally sound operator with a loyal buyer base and a differentiated product offering, and its lower price-to-book ratio may appeal to value-oriented models. However, in a probabilistic framework that weighs trend consistency, relative valuation, margin trajectory, and near-term growth visibility, Meritage presently holds a slight advantage. This assessment reflects the output of AI-driven pattern analysis and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KBH is a StrongBuy and MTH is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KBH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMTH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KBH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KBH’s TA Score shows that 1 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KBH’s TA Score: 1 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KBH (@Homebuilding) experienced а -1.09% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +1.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
KBH is expected to report earnings on Sep 23, 2026.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+1.83% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
| KBH | MTH | KBH / MTH | |
| Capitalization | 3.45B | 4.8B | 72% |
| EBITDA | 368M | 451M | 82% |
| Gain YTD | 1.204 | 13.475 | 9% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.71 | 15.34 | 89% |
| Revenue | 5.5B | 5.4B | 102% |
| Total Cash | 231M | 807M | 29% |
| Total Debt | 2B | 1.91B | 105% |
KBH | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 9 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 82 | 83 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (6) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (9). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (71). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
KBH's SMR Rating (82) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (83). This means that KBH’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (53). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as KBH (13). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to KBH’s over the last 12 months.
| KBH | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 65% | 14 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 61% |
Advertisement
KBH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KBH has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KBH jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with KBH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then KBH could also see price increases.