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KEY vs PNC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KEY (KeyCorp) is a Cleveland-based regional bank, while PNC is a much larger super-regional bank with a coast-to-coast network and more than $600 billion in total assets.
- Both names have delivered strong recent earnings, but they operate at sharply different scales and growth profiles.
- KEY has been supported by a strategic investment from Scotiabank, buybacks, and rising net interest income, while PNC is expanding nationally through its FirstBank acquisition.
- Credit normalization is a shared risk, with net charge-offs edging higher at both institutions.
- Analyst consensus on both stocks is broadly constructive, though PNC commands a larger institutional following and higher average price target.
Introduction
Investors screening U.S. banks often weigh a smaller, turnaround-oriented regional name against a larger, diversified super-regional. This stock comparison examines KEY and PNC, two financial institutions that share exposure to the same interest-rate and credit cycles but differ considerably in size, footprint, and market positioning. Traders focused on relative performance and momentum may find the contrast useful, while longer-term investors may weigh scale, efficiency, and capital return. Understanding how each bank is navigating net interest income, fee growth, and credit costs helps clarify why their shares have traded the way they have in recent weeks.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp is a regional bank operating primarily through KeyBank, serving consumers, commercial clients, and wealth-management customers, with a growing investment-banking and payments franchise. A strategic $2.8 billion investment from Scotiabank strengthened the balance sheet and supported a securities-portfolio repositioning that has helped lift net interest income (the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits).
Recent quarters have shown improving core profitability. In the first quarter, KEY reported earnings of $0.44 per share, up 33% year over year, with revenue up about 10%. Net interest margin expanded to 2.87%, and management guided toward further improvement, while the CET1 capital ratio (a key measure of a bank's core equity buffer) stood at 11.4%. The company also plans to repurchase at least $1.3 billion of stock this year. In recent market activity, however, the shares have traded in the low-$20 range and slipped modestly over the past month alongside the broader regional-bank group, even as consensus analyst price targets sit meaningfully higher.
PNC Overview and Recent Performance
The PNC Financial Services Group is one of the largest U.S. super-regional banks, with a diversified mix of retail, corporate, and asset-management businesses and a national branch footprint. Its January 2026 acquisition of FirstBank added roughly $26 billion in assets and deepened its presence in high-growth Southern and Western markets.
PNC's most recent quarterly results underscored both its earnings power and its efficiency story. Adjusted earnings per share of $5.09 beat consensus expectations, and the bank generated an 18.3% return on average tangible common equity (a profitability measure that excludes intangible assets). Revenue rose nearly 10% year over year, and the efficiency ratio improved to 57%, reflecting early traction from a multi-year AI and automation program. Even so, shares have traded in the low-$200s and are down over the trailing three-month period, as investors weigh a modest revenue shortfall, a slight sequential dip in fee income, and gradually rising net charge-offs.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale. PNC is a far larger institution, with a market capitalization around $86 billion, a national deposit base, and meaningful diversification across fee-based businesses such as capital markets, treasury management, and asset management. KEY is a smaller regional player whose growth narrative leans on loan growth, investment-banking momentum, and capital-return capacity unlocked by the Scotiabank investment.
Growth drivers also differ. KEY is leaning on commercial loan growth, an expanding wealth and payments platform, and margin improvement toward 3% or higher. PNC is pursuing national expansion, branch buildout, and operating leverage from its AI and automation initiatives. On risk, both face credit normalization, with net charge-offs ticking up, but PNC's larger, more diversified book offers different risk dynamics than KEY's concentrated regional and commercial real-estate exposure.
Sentiment and momentum have been mixed for both. KEY has attracted a "Buy" consensus with a double-digit upside target, while PNC carries an "Outperform" consensus and a higher average target, though its shares have lagged over the past quarter. From a relative performance standpoint, the two names trade at comparable forward price-to-earnings multiples, but PNC offers greater scale and liquidity, whereas KEY presents a more valuation-sensitive, catalyst-driven profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and catalyst depth, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward PNC in the current environment. The bank's larger scale, improving efficiency ratio, national diversification, and tangible progress on its AI-driven operating-leverage program suggest a more durable earnings trajectory. That said, KEY offers a compelling catalyst-driven setup through buybacks, margin expansion, and analyst upside, making it a reasonable consideration for investors seeking higher-beta regional exposure. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the trade-off between PNC's stability and KEY's turnaround momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a Hold and PNC is a StrongBuy.
KEY in -1.49% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where KEY declined for three days, in 201 of 287 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for KEY moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
KEY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for KEY entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where KEY's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 44 of 59 cases where KEY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KEY as a result. In 58 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KEY just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where KEY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KEY advanced for three days, in 177 of 296 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.284) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (12.029) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.332) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.996) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. KEY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KEY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PNC's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PNC moved out of oversold territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 64%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PNC as a result. In 50 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PNC just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where PNC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +0.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PNC advanced for three days, in 186 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PNC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
PNC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PNC entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PNC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.377) is normal, around the industry mean (1.241). P/E Ratio (12.156) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.089). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.569) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.762) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
KEY | PNC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 37 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (52) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as PNC (72). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to PNC’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (76). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (57). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's P/E Growth Rating (37) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87). This means that PNC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | PNC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | about 1 month ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 42% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PNC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PNC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PNC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а +4.52% price change this week, while PNC (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.87%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.29%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
PNC is expected to report earnings on Jan 15, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.87% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with TFC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then TFC could also see price increases.