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KEY vs PNC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? KeyCorp (KEY) vs. PNC Financial Services Group (PNC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale gap: PNC is a far larger franchise, with a market capitalization near $100 billion versus KEY's regional-bank footprint of roughly $189 billion in assets.
- Earnings momentum: Both banks grew net interest income (NII), but PNC's record revenue and 25% profit growth in recent quarters outpaced KEY's steadier, single-digit advance.
- Growth strategy: PNC is integrating a major acquisition (FirstBank), while KEY is expanding fee-based businesses and middle-market investment banking.
- Relative performance: PNC has shown stronger recent share-price momentum, while KEY has lagged its industry benchmark over the past six months.
- Profitability: PNC's return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of nearly 18% currently exceeds KEY's, which is still building toward a 15%-plus target.
- Risk profile: KEY carries relatively higher credit-cost metrics, while PNC faces integration-related expenses and deposit-mix pressures.
Introduction
Regional and super-regional banks offer investors a direct way to express a view on U.S. lending, deposit funding, and the interest-rate cycle. This stock comparison puts KEY (KeyCorp) side by side with PNC (The PNC Financial Services Group), two well-established franchises with different scales, strategies, and risk profiles. The comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking exposure to banking-sector recovery, improving net interest margins (NIM), and the capital-markets rebound, as well as for those weighing a larger, higher-returning institution against a smaller bank executing a turnaround. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can clarify which profile better matches a given portfolio objective.
KEY Overview and Recent Performance
KeyCorp, headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, is a full-service regional bank serving consumer, commercial, and institutional clients across a branch network of roughly 940 locations. Its business mix spans commercial banking, consumer banking, wealth management, payments, and a notable middle-market investment banking franchise under KeyBanc Capital Markets. In recent quarters, KEY has reported improving earnings, with net interest income (NII, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits) growing and its net interest margin (NIM) expanding as funding costs declined and low-yielding assets repriced higher.
Recent market activity has reflected a mixed picture. KEY's net income rose year over year in its latest reporting periods, and management has raised guidance for loan and fee growth while expanding a share-repurchase program of about $1.3 billion for 2026. A completed acquisition of Clearwater Corporate Finance LLP's U.K. business added middle-market advisory capabilities in Western Europe. However, KEY's shares have lagged the broader banking industry over the past six months, and credit-quality measures, including net charge-offs and non-performing assets, have edged higher, tempering sentiment.
PNC Overview and Recent Performance
The PNC Financial Services Group, based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is one of the largest U.S. super-regional banks, with a national footprint spanning retail, corporate, and institutional banking, asset management, and a growing capital-markets business. PNC's scale is reflected in total loans exceeding $360 billion and deposits near $450 billion, far above KEY's balance sheet.
Recent performance has been notably strong. PNC posted record quarterly revenue, driven by a roughly 16% increase in NII and a surge in capital-markets and advisory fees, and reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. A key catalyst has been the completed acquisition of FirstBank, which expanded PNC's presence in Colorado and Arizona and added billions in loans and deposits. The bank also raised its quarterly dividend by 18% and continues to buy back shares. Even so, PNC's stock pulled back in the weeks following its results as investors weighed higher expenses and a sequential dip in deposits, underscoring that strong fundamentals do not always translate into immediate share-price gains.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are diversified U.S. banks, their market positioning differs sharply. PNC operates as a super-regional powerhouse with a deeper national presence, larger loan book, and a stronger capital-markets and advisory engine, which has fueled outsized fee-income growth. KEY, by contrast, is a smaller regional operator leaning on relationship-driven commercial lending and a growing investment banking and wealth franchise.
On growth drivers, PNC's recent momentum rests heavily on the FirstBank integration and a capital-markets rebound, while KEY's story centers on balance-sheet repositioning, fee-business expansion, and its Clearwater acquisition. On risk, KEY's credit metrics are somewhat softer, whereas PNC faces integration costs and deposit-mix uncertainty. In terms of profitability, PNC's ROTCE of roughly 18% exceeds KEY's current level, though KEY is targeting meaningful improvement by late 2027. Both banks are sensitive to the interest-rate path, but PNC's scale and capital position give it greater relative stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PNC at present. The stock has demonstrated more consistent trend strength and relative performance, supported by record revenue, expanding margins, a higher ROTCE, and a clearer near-term catalyst in the FirstBank integration. KEY offers a credible turnaround narrative and improving fundamentals, but its softer relative momentum and elevated credit metrics suggest greater near-term uncertainty. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: the AI's preference could shift as rate expectations, credit trends, and integration execution evolve in the coming months.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KEY is a StrongBuy and PNC is a StrongBuy.
KEY | PNC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 50 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 58 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 7 | 4 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KEY's Valuation (25) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as PNC (50). This means that KEY’s stock grew similarly to PNC’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's Profit vs Risk Rating (58) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (79). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's SMR Rating (4) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (7). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as KEY (57). This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to KEY’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's P/E Growth Rating (51) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KEY (87). This means that PNC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KEY’s over the last 12 months.
| KEY | PNC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KEY’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PNC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- KEY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KEY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PNC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KEY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PNC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KEY (@Regional Banks) experienced а -1.76% price change this week, while PNC (@Regional Banks) price change was -2.77% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.08%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
KEY is expected to report earnings on Oct 20, 2026.
PNC is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.08% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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KEY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KEY has been closely correlated with CFG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KEY jumps, then CFG could also see price increases.
PNC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PNC has been closely correlated with USB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PNC jumps, then USB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PNC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC | 100% | -0.90% | ||
| USB - PNC | 88% Closely correlated | -1.09% | ||
| MTB - PNC | 86% Closely correlated | -1.33% | ||
| KEY - PNC | 85% Closely correlated | -1.37% | ||
| FITB - PNC | 85% Closely correlated | -1.16% | ||
| HBAN - PNC | 85% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
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