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MTB vs PNC
M&T Bank (MTB) vs PNC Financial (PNC) Earnings Preview: Q1 2026 Estimates and Key Catalysts
Key Takeaways
- Both MTB and PNC report Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, with analysts forecasting EPS growth of 18.6% for MTB ($4.01) and 16.8% for PNC ($4.10).
- Revenue estimates show PNC at $6.23 billion (up 13.6% YoY) outpacing MTB's $2.43 billion (up 5.3% YoY), reflecting PNC's larger scale.
- MTB's net interest margin (NIM, the spread between interest income and funding costs) expected at 3.7%, higher than PNC's recent 2.84%, aiding profitability.
- PNC guides full-year 2026 NII (net interest income) growth of ~14%, bolstered by recent FirstBank acquisition adding deposits and loans.
- Both maintain strong CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1, a key measure of core capital strength) ratios around 10.6-11%, supporting dividends and buybacks.
- Recent Q4 2025 results: MTB net operating EPS $4.72, PNC $4.88, both beating estimates amid deposit growth and controlled expenses.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Regional banks like MTB and PNC operate in a competitive landscape focused on commercial and retail lending, deposit gathering, and fee-based services. Both serve overlapping Mid-Atlantic and Northeast markets, making direct comparisons insightful for investors tracking net interest income trends, loan quality, and expense discipline amid interest rate shifts. With Q1 2026 earnings due April 15, focus centers on NIM expansion from deposit repricing, loan growth in C&I (commercial and industrial) segments, and noninterest income from wealth management. PNC's larger asset base ($574 billion vs. MTB's $213.5 billion) provides scale advantages, while MTB emphasizes higher ROTCE (return on tangible common equity, a profitability metric excluding intangibles).
M&T Bank Focus
M&T Bank (NYSE: MTB) will release Q1 2026 results before market open on April 15, followed by an 8:00 a.m. ET conference call. Analysts project EPS of $4.01 (up 18.6% YoY) and revenue of $2.43 billion (up 5.3% YoY), with NIM steady at 3.7%. Key watches include deposit betas (rate sensitivity of deposits) amid recent Fed cuts, C&I loan growth, and NCOs (net charge-offs, loan losses after recoveries) expected at 40-50 bps. Q4 2025 delivered net operating EPS of $4.72 (beating estimates), NII at $1.78 billion, and deposits at $165.1 billion (up modestly). CET1 targeted at 10.75-11.00%, with ongoing share repurchases (9% of shares in 2025) and 11% dividend hike signaling confidence. Tier 1 capital ratio forecast at 12.3%.
PNC Financial Context
PNC Financial (NYSE: PNC) reports Q1 2026 at 6:30 a.m. ET on April 15, with a 10:00 a.m. call. Consensus calls for EPS of $4.10 (up 16.8% YoY) and $6.23 billion revenue (up 13.6% YoY), driven by NII of ~$3.98 billion. Recent FirstBank deal added $26.4 billion in assets, boosting deposits to $440 billion (up 2% QoQ in Q4). Q4 2025 EPS hit $4.88 (16% beat), revenue $6.1 billion (record), NIM 2.84% (up 5 bps), and CET1 at 10.6%. Full-year 2025 net income reached $7 billion (EPS $16.59), with 2026 NII guide at +14%. Efficiency ratio eyed at 60.4%, reflecting expense control amid M&A (mergers and acquisitions) integration.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
MTB ($33 billion market cap, $213.5 billion assets) trades at a premium NIM but smaller scale versus PNC ($89 billion market cap, $574 billion assets). Q4 2025 ROTCE favored MTB at ~16% net operating vs. PNC's implied mid-teens, with both posting ROE (return on equity) above 10%. Growth drivers: PNC's 8% loan target and fee income from advisory; MTB's relationship banking yields deposit stability (166.9 billion total). Risks include CRE (commercial real estate) exposure and NCOs, both low (~0.5% annualized). Sentiment leans positive on rate cut tailwinds, with PNC's diversification (payments, wealth) edging MTB's regional focus. PNC repurchased $0.4 billion shares in Q4; MTB 9% outstanding.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI slightly favors PNC (65% probability) for superior scale, NII growth guidance, and diversification, though MTB appeals for higher NIM and ROTCE stability in a regional banking matchup.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTB is a Buy and PNC is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whilePNC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MTB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PNC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PNC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PNC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MTB (@Regional Banks) experienced а +4.24% price change this week, while PNC (@Regional Banks) price change was +4.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +3.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.20%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTB is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
PNC is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+3.72% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| MTB | PNC | MTB / PNC | |
| Capitalization | 34B | 95.4B | 36% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 16.700 | 15.615 | 107% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.02 | 13.81 | 94% |
| Revenue | 9.73B | 23.8B | 41% |
| Total Cash | 1.9B | 6.78B | 28% |
| Total Debt | 19B | 66.7B | 28% |
MTB | PNC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 37 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 38 | 56 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 8 | 6 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 16 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 46 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTB's Valuation (53) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as PNC (59) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to PNC’s over the last 12 months.
MTB's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as PNC (56) in the Major Banks industry. This means that MTB’s stock grew similarly to PNC’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's SMR Rating (6) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (8) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's Price Growth Rating (16) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (17) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
PNC's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as MTB (47) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that PNC’s stock grew similarly to MTB’s over the last 12 months.
| MTB | PNC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 58% | 18 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 45% |
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PNC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PNC has been closely correlated with USB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 87% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PNC jumps, then USB could also see price increases.