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BMY vs NVS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) vs. Novartis (NVS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BMY raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $49.0–$50.0 billion following strong second-quarter results driven by a 15% increase in its Growth Portfolio.
- NVS reaffirmed its 2026 guidance after reporting modest 3% revenue growth, while facing multiple late-stage trial setbacks in September 2026.
- Recent clinical updates favored BMY with positive two-year Sotyktu data in psoriatic arthritis, whereas NVS halted an ALS program and reported failures in cardiovascular and neuromuscular trials.
- BMY shares have shown resilience with a 1-year return near 45%, compared with NVS delivering approximately 14% over the same period amid greater volatility.
- Both companies maintain attractive dividend yields above 2%, supported by substantial cash flows from established pharmaceutical franchises.
- Sector exposure remains concentrated in oncology and specialty medicines for both, with BMY demonstrating more consistent recent momentum in its growth assets.
Introduction
This comparison examines BMY (Bristol-Myers Squibb) and NVS (Novartis), two leading pharmaceutical companies with diversified portfolios in oncology, immunology, and specialty therapeutics. Investors and traders seeking to understand relative performance, pipeline momentum, and market positioning in the healthcare sector may find this analysis relevant. The article focuses on verifiable developments from recent weeks, including earnings updates and clinical trial outcomes, to provide a balanced view of how each stock has responded to current market conditions without offering forward-looking predictions.
BMY Overview and Recent Performance
Bristol-Myers Squibb develops and commercializes medicines primarily in oncology, hematology, immunology, and cardiovascular disease. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near $63 with a market capitalization of approximately $129 billion. Second-quarter 2026 revenues reached $13.0 billion, up 6% year over year, propelled by 15% growth in the Growth Portfolio that includes Opdivo, Reblozyl, and Camzyos. The company raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to a range of $49.0–$50.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $6.75–$7.00. Recent weeks featured positive Phase 3 data for Sotyktu in psoriatic arthritis and continued pipeline advancement, supporting sentiment despite legacy portfolio pressures from patent expirations.
NVS Overview and Recent Performance
Novartis focuses on innovative medicines in oncology, neuroscience, and immunology, with key products including Kisqali and Cosentyx. The stock has recently traded around $140, corresponding to a market capitalization near $266 billion. Second-quarter 2026 net sales totaled $14.4 billion, reflecting 3% growth, with the company reaffirming its full-year guidance for low single-digit sales expansion. Recent market activity included a positive Phase 3 outcome for remibrutinib in multiple sclerosis early in the period, offset by September setbacks including the discontinuation of an ALS candidate and missed endpoints in cardiovascular and neuromuscular studies. These developments contributed to price volatility while the broader portfolio continued to generate stable cash flows.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BMY and NVS operate in overlapping therapeutic areas yet differ in scale and recent trajectory. NVS maintains a larger market capitalization and broader global footprint, while BMY has delivered more pronounced recent revenue acceleration through its Growth Portfolio. Both face generic competition on legacy products, but BMY offset these pressures more effectively in the latest quarter by raising guidance. Pipeline momentum contrasts sharply: BMY reported consistent positive clinical readouts in recent weeks, whereas NVS encountered multiple late-stage disappointments. Market sentiment reflects these dynamics, with BMY exhibiting steadier price behavior amid sector rotation and NVS experiencing sharper swings tied to trial outcomes. Dividend sustainability appears comparable given both firms’ robust free-cash-flow generation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in recent earnings momentum, pipeline catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to BMY over NVS. The stock’s ability to raise guidance alongside supportive clinical data in recent weeks contributes to this assessment, while NVS contends with greater near-term uncertainty from trial results. This evaluation remains probabilistic and subject to ongoing market developments.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BMY is a Hold and NVS is a Hold.
BMY in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BMY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BMY moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BMY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for BMY entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BMY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 31 of 59 cases where BMY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BMY just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where BMY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Following a +6.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BMY advanced for three days, in 174 of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
BMY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.848) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (14.070) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). BMY's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (17.786) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.642) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BMY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BMY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock worse than average.
NVS's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVS turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where NVS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NVS's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVS as a result. In 37 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
NVS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVS advanced for three days, in 182 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 162 of 318 cases where NVS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The 50-day moving average for NVS moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
NVS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.720) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (22.187) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.441) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.715) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
BMY | NVS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 42 Fair valued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 22 | 33 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 30 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVS's Valuation (4) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMY (42). This means that NVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
NVS's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is significantly better than the same rating for BMY (77). This means that NVS’s stock grew significantly faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
BMY's SMR Rating (22) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as NVS (33). This means that BMY’s stock grew similarly to NVS’s over the last 12 months.
NVS's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as BMY (46). This means that NVS’s stock grew similarly to BMY’s over the last 12 months.
NVS's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BMY (65). This means that NVS’s stock grew somewhat faster than BMY’s over the last 12 months.
| BMY | NVS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 41% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 54% | 12 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 32% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 51% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BMY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVS’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- BMY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVS’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BMY’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BMY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BMY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) experienced а +1.07% price change this week, while NVS (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +4.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -0.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
BMY is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NVS is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-0.91% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
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BMY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BMY has been loosely correlated with PFE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BMY jumps, then PFE could also see price increases.
NVS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVS has been loosely correlated with GSK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVS jumps, then GSK could also see price increases.