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MCBS vs SRCE
MetroCity Bankshares (MCBS) vs 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) Earnings Preview: Q1 Insights Ahead
Key Takeaways
- MetroCity Bankshares (MCBS) approaches Q1 2026 earnings on April 17 with analyst EPS estimate of $0.77, building on Q4 2025 beat of $0.78 vs. $0.73 expected.
- 1st Source Corporation (SRCE) follows with Q1 earnings on April 23, EPS estimate $1.63, after strong Q4 2025 performance of $1.87 vs. $1.61.
- Both regional banks show robust balance sheets: MCBS with ~$3.6B assets, SRCE at $9.1B, focusing on commercial lending growth.
- SRCE posted record 2025 net income of $158.3M (EPS $6.41), up 19% YoY, driven by 5% loan growth and NIM (net interest margin) expansion to 4.07%.
- MCBS delivered 2025 net income of $68.7M (EPS $2.64), with consistent EPS beats and focus on deposit growth in key markets.
- Investor focus: loan quality, deposit stability, and NIM amid rate environment for these Midwest/Southeast peers.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Quarterly earnings remain pivotal for regional banks like MetroCity Bankshares and 1st Source Corporation, revealing resilience in loan portfolios, deposit funding, and profitability amid economic shifts. Both operate in competitive landscapes—MCBS targeting multicultural communities in Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas with commercial real estate and small business lending, while SRCE leverages specialty finance (equipment, aircraft) alongside core banking in northern Indiana and southwestern Michigan. Comparing them highlights strategies in NII (net interest income), credit quality (non-performing loans, NCOs or net charge-offs), and growth potential, aiding investors in spotting outperformance in the sector.
MetroCity Bankshares Focus
MetroCity Bankshares (MCBS) heads into its Q1 2026 earnings on April 17, with analysts forecasting EPS of $0.77 on expected revenue around $50M. The preview centers on sustained loan growth—loans held for investment reached $3.12B at year-end 2025, up 3.1% QoQ excluding acquisitions—and deposit expansion to $2.69B. Q4 2025 delivered net income of $18.3M (diluted EPS $0.68), slightly below estimates but with full-year results of $68.7M (EPS $2.64), reflecting ROTCE (return on tangible common equity) strength. Watch for updates on CRE (commercial real estate) exposure, provision for credit losses, and efficiency ratio improvements, as MCBS maintains a conservative CET1 (common equity tier 1 capital) ratio.
1st Source Corporation Context
1st Source Corporation (SRCE) gears up for Q1 2026 reporting on April 23, with EPS eyed at $1.63. Recent Q4 2025 results showcased record annual net income of $158.3M (diluted EPS $6.41, +19.6% YoY), despite $5.8M pre-tax securities losses; quarterly net income hit $41.1M (EPS $1.67). Balance sheet highlights include $9.1B assets, $6.95B average loans (+5.1% YoY), and $7.38B average deposits (+3.7% YoY), bolstering NIM at 4.07%. Low NCOs (0.06%) and dividend hike to $0.40/share underscore stability. Fundamentals position SRCE strongly, with specialty leasing driving diversification beyond traditional banking.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
MetroCity Bankshares (MCBS) and 1st Source (SRCE) both exhibit earnings beats—MCBS at 7% surprise in Q4, SRCE at 16%—but SRCE's scale ($9B assets vs. $3.6B) yields higher absolute growth: 19% net income rise vs. MCBS's steady delivery. Growth drivers favor SRCE's specialty finance amid equipment demand, while MCBS excels in niche deposits. Risk exposure leans similar (CRE, rate sensitivity), but SRCE's lower NCOs (0.06% vs. peers) and NIM edge signal superior credit quality. Market sentiment tilts to SRCE (P/E ~11.5, market cap $1.8B) for stability, though MCBS (P/E ~11.8, $900M cap) offers value in high-growth regions.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors SRCE with 65% probability for near-term outperformance, citing superior earnings quality (consistent beats, record growth), balance sheet stability ($9B assets, low NCOs), stronger trend momentum, and diversified positioning over MCBS's solid but smaller-scale execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MCBS is a Hold and SRCE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MCBS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileSRCE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MCBS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- SRCE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MCBS’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SRCE’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MCBS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- SRCE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MCBS (@Regional Banks) experienced а +1.01% price change this week, while SRCE (@Regional Banks) price change was +0.57% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.55%.
Reported Earning Dates
MCBS is expected to report earnings on Jul 17, 2026.
SRCE is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.31% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| MCBS | SRCE | MCBS / SRCE | |
| Capitalization | 979M | 1.87B | 52% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 30.963 | 26.046 | 119% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.29 | 11.94 | 103% |
| Revenue | 168M | 443M | 38% |
| Total Cash | 279M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 440M | 230M | 191% |
MCBS | SRCE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 60 Fair valued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MCBS's Valuation (60) in the null industry is in the same range as SRCE (60) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that MCBS’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as MCBS (31) in the null industry. This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to MCBS’s over the last 12 months.
SRCE's SMR Rating (42) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as MCBS (47) in the null industry. This means that SRCE’s stock grew similarly to MCBS’s over the last 12 months.
MCBS's Price Growth Rating (43) in the null industry is in the same range as SRCE (45) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that MCBS’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
MCBS's P/E Growth Rating (39) in the null industry is in the same range as SRCE (40) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that MCBS’s stock grew similarly to SRCE’s over the last 12 months.
| MCBS | SRCE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 49% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 59% | 27 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 43% |
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MCBS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCBS has been closely correlated with FCBC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCBS jumps, then FCBC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCBS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCBS | 100% | -0.03% | ||
| FCBC - MCBS | 85% Closely correlated | +1.01% | ||
| MBWM - MCBS | 83% Closely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| SRCE - MCBS | 82% Closely correlated | +1.22% | ||
| FMBH - MCBS | 81% Closely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| IBCP - MCBS | 81% Closely correlated | -0.35% | ||
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