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MDU vs VMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MDU Resources Group (MDU) vs. Valmont Industries (VMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- MDU is a regulated energy delivery and pipeline utility with a defensive profile, while VMI is a cyclical infrastructure and agriculture manufacturer leveraged to utility grid investment.
- VMI has shown stronger recent momentum and earnings acceleration, with management repeatedly raising 2026 guidance; MDU has delivered steadier, dividend-supported returns.
- MDU's growth narrative centers on the proposed Bakken East Pipeline and data-center load; VMI's centers on grid modernization, electrification, and capacity expansion.
- VMI carries a significantly larger market capitalization and higher analyst upside targets, while MDU offers a ~3% dividend yield and lower volatility.
- The two stocks occupy different risk profiles: MDU is rate-regulated and weather-sensitive, while VMI is exposed to commodity costs and utility capital-spending cycles.
Introduction
Investors weighing a regulated utility against an infrastructure manufacturer are effectively comparing two very different ways to access U.S. energy demand. MDU (MDU Resources Group) generates predictable, rate-regulated earnings from electric and natural gas utilities and pipelines, while VMI (Valmont Industries) supplies the steel structures and irrigation systems that support grid expansion and agriculture. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and for longer-term investors assessing market positioning, growth drivers, and risk. Both names benefit from rising electricity demand and data-center buildouts, yet their business models, momentum, and volatility differ considerably.
MDU Overview and Recent Performance
MDU Resources Group is a pure-play regulated energy delivery company following its 2024 spin-off of its construction business. It operates electric and natural gas utilities across several U.S. states plus a natural gas pipeline segment. Recent market activity has been relatively subdued: shares traded near the $19 level in recent weeks, within a 52-week range of roughly $17 to $23, and posted a modest year-to-date decline. The stock carries a beta near 0.6 and a dividend yield of about 3%, reflecting its defensive, income-oriented character.
Sentiment has been shaped by steady fundamentals rather than dramatic catalysts. The company reported first-quarter earnings of $0.39 per share, slightly below the prior year on mild weather, and later affirmed full-year 2026 earnings guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 per share with a long-term earnings-per-share (EPS) growth target of 6% to 8%. Investor attention has focused on the proposed Bakken East Pipeline, a $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion project with roughly 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of customer interest, and on 580 megawatts of signed data-center electric service agreements.
VMI Overview and Recent Performance
VMI (Valmont Industries) manufactures engineered infrastructure products—including transmission, distribution, and substation structures, lighting and transportation poles, and telecom components—alongside center-pivot irrigation equipment for agriculture. The company has been a notable performer over the past year, with shares rising substantially on robust utility demand. However, recent weeks have shown cooling: the stock pulled back over the trailing three months even as it remained up double digits year to date, trading near the $445 level in mid-October 2026.
The fundamental story remains strong. Infrastructure, which generates roughly 78% of net sales, has been driven by a multi-year utility investment cycle tied to grid modernization, electrification, and data centers. Management raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $22.25 to $23.50 and lifted Infrastructure sales expectations to $3.4 to $3.5 billion. North America utility sales grew about 34% in the second quarter, while agriculture remained soft due to lower volumes and international disruptions. Margins have expanded through pricing discipline, productivity initiatives, and capacity additions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast is business model. MDU earns regulated returns, giving it stable cash flows but limited upside flexibility and sensitivity to weather and rate-case outcomes. VMI is an industrial manufacturer whose earnings rise and fall with utility capital spending, steel and zinc input costs, and agricultural demand. On growth drivers, both are leveraged to electrification and data centers, but VMI captures this through product sales while MDU captures it through rate-base investment and pipeline capacity.
Recent momentum diverges. VMI has delivered accelerating EPS growth and repeated guidance increases, yet its shares have pulled back as investors weigh valuation and commodity inflation. MDU has been comparatively range-bound, with steadier performance and an income component VMI largely lacks. Risk profiles also differ: MDU faces regulatory and financing risk around large projects, while VMI faces cyclical demand and raw-material margin pressure. Market sentiment currently assigns VMI a higher consensus price-target upside, but MDU offers lower volatility and a defensive tilt.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor VMI in the current environment. The stock's accelerating earnings growth, upward guidance revisions, and exposure to a multi-year utility investment cycle suggest stronger near-term trend alignment than MDU's steadier, income-oriented profile. That said, VMI's recent pullback and commodity-cost sensitivity introduce volatility, and MDU's defensive stability and dividend yield remain meaningful counterweights. The verdict reflects a probabilistic assessment of relative momentum and positioning rather than a definitive ranking, and it should be considered alongside each investor's own risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MDU is a StrongBuy and VMI is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for MDU turns positive, indicating new upward trend
MDU saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 72 of the 96 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MDU's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MDU just turned positive on September 28, 2026. Looking at past instances where MDU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
MDU moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDU advanced for three days, in 192 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
MDU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MDU entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 45, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MDU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 61 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.374) is normal, around the industry mean (1.391). P/E Ratio (20.126) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.070). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.360) is also within normal values, averaging (1.861). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
VMI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for VMI entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 168 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 105 of the 168 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 62%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VMI as a result. In 49 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VMI turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
VMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for VMI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for VMI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VMI advanced for three days, in 213 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
VMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. VMI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.014) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.788). P/E Ratio (17.390) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.776). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.956) is also within normal values, averaging (0.772). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (543.841) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.212) is also within normal values, averaging (2.059).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MDU | VMI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 61 Fair valued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 45 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDU's Valuation (61) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as VMI (65) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to VMI’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as VMI (35) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to VMI’s over the last 12 months.
VMI's SMR Rating (34) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDU (79) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that VMI’s stock grew somewhat faster than MDU’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as VMI (59) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to VMI’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Gas Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VMI (89) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew somewhat faster than VMI’s over the last 12 months.
| MDU | VMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 42% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 21 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 46% | 1 day ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MDU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while VMI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MDU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- VMI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MDU’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VMI’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MDU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VMI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MDU (@Gas Distributors) experienced а +3.13% price change this week, while VMI (@Industrial Conglomerates) price change was -3.43% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +3.45%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.91%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.63%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Conglomerates industry was -4.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
MDU is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
VMI is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Gas Distributors (+3.45% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
@Industrial Conglomerates (-4.76% weekly)Industrial Conglomerates specialize in numerous types of products, most of which comprise industrial goods, while some also go towards meeting household needs. Honeywell (makes engineering services and aerospace systems), United Technologies Corporation(manufactures aircraft engines, aerospace systems, HVAC, elevators and escalators, fire and security, building systems, and industrial products, among others), 3M (over 60,000 products under several world-renowned brands, including adhesives, abrasives, laminates, passive fire protection, personal protective equipment, window films, paint protection films, dental and orthodontic products, electrical & electronic connecting and insulating materials, medical products, car-care products, electronic circuits, healthcare software and optical films).
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MDU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDU has been loosely correlated with BKH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDU jumps, then BKH could also see price increases.
VMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VMI has been loosely correlated with MDU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if VMI jumps, then MDU could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 100% | -2.81% | ||
| MDU - VMI | 46% Loosely correlated | +1.31% | ||
| OLOX - VMI | 42% Loosely correlated | -9.71% | ||
| MLI - VMI | 37% Loosely correlated | -5.23% | ||
| IIIN - VMI | 34% Loosely correlated | -0.30% | ||
| NWPX - VMI | 34% Loosely correlated | -3.08% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PID | 22.73 | 0.35 | +1.58% |
| Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF (PID) | |||
| PCLN | 29.84 | N/A | N/A |
| Pictet Cleaner Planet ETF (PCLN) | |||
| VLT | 8.81 | -0.02 | -0.17% |
| Invesco High Income Trust II | |||
| AFMC | 40.53 | -0.22 | -0.54% |
| First Trust Active Factor Mid Cap ETF (AFMC) | |||
| EMXC | 91.16 | -3.04 | -3.23% |
| iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC) | |||