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MT vs TX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ArcelorMittal (MT) vs. Ternium (TX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ArcelorMittal (MT) has delivered stronger year-to-date gains of around 30%, outpacing Ternium (TX) amid robust steel demand.
- MT's larger market capitalization of approximately $45 billion provides greater scale compared to TX's $8.4 billion.
- Both stocks benefit from steel sector tailwinds, but MT shows superior recent momentum with a 25% rise in the past month.
- TX offers a lower forward P/E ratio (price-to-earnings, around 9.2) and beta (volatility measure, 1.19), appealing for value and stability seekers.
- Tickeron's AI tools highlight differing risk profiles, with MT exhibiting higher beta (1.71) but stronger return on equity (ROE, 6%).
Introduction
This comparison pits ArcelorMittal (MT), a global steel giant, against Ternium (TX), a leading Latin American producer, in the context of recent steel market dynamics. Both operate in the basic materials sector amid rising demand from infrastructure and manufacturing. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing value in metals exposure will find insights into relative performance, valuations, and sector drivers here, aiding decisions in a volatile commodities landscape.
MT Overview and Recent Performance
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is the world's second-largest steel producer, formed from the 2006 merger of Arcelor and Mittal Steel, manufacturing over 5% of global steel output across integrated steel and mining operations in Europe, Americas, Asia, and Africa. In recent market activity, MT shares have surged, with year-to-date returns near 30% and a one-year gain exceeding 100%, driven by favorable steel pricing and supply constraints. Key influences include the release of its 2025 Sustainability Report emphasizing safer growth and first-quarter 2026 analyst consensus, boosting sentiment despite challenges like Ukraine operations amid energy issues. Trading near $59 with a 52-week range of $28-$68, MT reflects optimism in steel recovery.
TX Overview and Recent Performance
Ternium S.A. (TX) manufactures and distributes flat and long steel products, primarily in Mexico, Argentina, and other Southern Cone markets, with mining operations supporting its steel segment. Recent weeks have seen steady performance, with shares around $43 amid a 52-week range of $27-$46, reflecting resilience in Latin American demand despite a proposed lower FY dividend due to Middle East uncertainties. Sentiment is supported by upbeat outlooks for Mexico operations and ongoing investments like a new steel mill, though earnings slides temper gains. Trading with a trailing P/E of 19.5 and forward P/E near 9, TX appeals to regional growth watchers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ArcelorMittal (MT) and Ternium (TX) share steel exposure but diverge in scale and geography: MT's global footprint diversifies risks better than TX's regional focus on Latin America. Growth drivers favor MT's mining integration and sustainability initiatives versus TX's Mexico expansions. Recent momentum tilts to MT with sharper gains, while TX shows stability via lower beta (1.19 vs. 1.71). Risk factors include MT's higher debt/equity (24%) and geopolitical exposures, against TX's currency risks. Valuations position MT cheaper on trailing P/E (14.4 vs. 19.5), but TX ahead on forward metrics. Market sentiment leans positive for both amid steel rallies, with MT analysts targeting higher upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors ArcelorMittal (MT) over Ternium (TX) due to consistent trend strength, larger scale, and superior recent relative performance in steel markets. Factors like higher ROE and momentum suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term, though TX remains viable for lower-risk regional plays.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MT is a StrongBuy and TX is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- MT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
MT (@Steel) experienced а +5.36% price change this week, while TX (@Steel) price change was +3.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +179.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +134.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
MT is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TX is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Steel (+179.67% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| MT | TX | MT / TX | |
| Capitalization | 53.3B | 9.73B | 548% |
| EBITDA | 3.99B | 1.76B | 227% |
| Gain YTD | 56.127 | 33.557 | 167% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.54 | 16.52 | 112% |
| Revenue | 62B | 15.6B | 397% |
| Total Cash | 4.36B | 3.14B | 139% |
| Total Debt | 13.7B | 3.01B | 455% |
MT | TX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 95 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 22 Undervalued | 1 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 87 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TX's Valuation (1) in the Steel industry is in the same range as MT (22). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
MT's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as TX (45). This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to TX’s over the last 12 months.
TX's SMR Rating (87) in the Steel industry is in the same range as MT (95). This means that TX’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
MT's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Steel industry is in the same range as TX (39). This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to TX’s over the last 12 months.
TX's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MT (58). This means that TX’s stock grew somewhat faster than MT’s over the last 12 months.
| MT | TX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 65% | 7 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 70% |
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MT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MT has been loosely correlated with TX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MT jumps, then TX could also see price increases.
TX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TX has been loosely correlated with MT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TX jumps, then MT could also see price increases.