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MTSI vs TSEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) vs. Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MTSI and TSEM are semiconductor names leveraged to artificial intelligence (AI) data-center demand, but they play very different roles in the value chain.
- MACOM designs and sells analog, RF, and optical semiconductor products, while Tower Semiconductor operates as an independent foundry (a manufacturer that builds chips on behalf of customers).
- MACOM is accelerating on data-center connectivity, reporting a record book-to-bill ratio and sharply higher margins in recent quarters.
- Tower Semiconductor is posting record revenue and profitability, driven by a surge in silicon photonics (SiPho) for AI infrastructure.
- The two companies carry different risk profiles: MACOM's model is comparatively asset-light, while Tower's growth requires heavy, multi-year capital investment in new fabrication capacity.
- Both guided for sequential growth, but their drivers, market positioning, and valuation narratives differ meaningfully.
Introduction
Investors tracking the AI infrastructure build-out increasingly look beyond the largest chipmakers to the specialized suppliers enabling faster data movement and optical connectivity. MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions) and TSEM (Tower Semiconductor) are two such names. Both are semiconductors companies, yet they operate on opposite sides of the business: one designs and sells components, while the other manufactures them for a customer base. This stock comparison examines their recent performance, growth drivers, and risk factors to help traders and investors assess relative performance and market positioning in the current environment.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), headquartered in Lowell, Massachusetts, designs and sells analog, mixed-signal, RF, and optical semiconductor products across three end markets: Data Center, Industrial & Defense, and Telecom. Its fiscal year ends near the end of September, so recent reports cover fiscal 2026.
Recent market activity has reflected accelerating momentum. In its fiscal third quarter, MACOM reported revenue of roughly $342 million, up about 36% year over year, with data-center revenue reaching a record and climbing approximately 40% sequentially on demand for 800G and 1.6T PAM4 (four-level pulse amplitude modulation) connectivity products. Management cited a record book-to-bill ratio of 1.6-to-1 and a record backlog, and guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to $415–$425 million. Adjusted gross margin rose to nearly 60%, and adjusted operating margin expanded sharply year over year. This demand strength, combined with improving manufacturing utilization and yields, has underpinned investor sentiment in recent weeks.
TSEM Overview and Recent Performance
Tower Semiconductor Ltd. (TSEM), headquartered in Migdal Haemek, Israel, is an independent foundry of high-value analog semiconductor solutions. It manufactures chips for customers across automotive, industrial, consumer, mobile, infrastructure, and aerospace and defense markets, with fabrication facilities in Israel, the United States, and Japan.
Tower has delivered a run of record results. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 15% year over year to $414 million, and second-quarter revenue reached a record $460 million, up 24% year over year, with net profit roughly doubling. The standout driver has been silicon photonics, where revenue has grown several-fold year over year and reached a $680 million annual run rate in the second quarter, with management targeting a $1 billion run rate by the fourth quarter. Tower also raised its 2028 financial targets to $3.6 billion in revenue and $1.2 billion in net profit, supported by about $1.3 billion in contracted SiPho revenue for 2027. Its Japan restructuring, aimed at full ownership of the Fab 7 300mm facility, has reinforced its long-term capacity narrative.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names is structural. MACOM is a product company that develops its own components and leverages a mix of internal and outsourced manufacturing, giving it a comparatively lighter asset base and higher margins; its recent adjusted gross margin approaches 60%. Tower, by contrast, is capital-intensive: its growth depends on building and filling fabrication capacity, and it is investing heavily to expand 300mm wafer production and SiPho output through roughly 2028.
Both are exposed to AI-driven data-center and optical connectivity trends, but from different angles. MACOM benefits from rising demand for high-speed PAM4 chips, photodetectors, and lasers inside pluggable optical modules. Tower benefits from manufacturing the silicon photonics wafers and other specialized analog processes that power similar infrastructure. This means the two can, in some cases, serve overlapping demand cycles without competing directly.
On momentum, both stocks have enjoyed positive sentiment tied to strong bookings and upward guidance. Risk profiles diverge, however: MACOM carries execution risk around new photonics and laser qualifications, while Tower faces capacity constraints, higher tax rates, capital-expenditure (CapEx) intensity, and geopolitical concentration given its Israeli facilities. Market positioning favors MACOM for margin-focused investors and Tower for those seeking direct foundry leverage to silicon photonics volume growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst strength, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward MTSI in the current environment. MACOM combines a record book-to-bill ratio, expanding margins, a strong balance sheet, and concentrated exposure to accelerating data-center demand, which tends to produce more stable and clearly defined price trends. Tower's growth is arguably more dramatic and its silicon photonics momentum compelling, but its heavier CapEx commitments and capacity-ramp execution risk introduce greater variability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the relative consistency and stability of each name's trend and catalysts as they stand today.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MTSI is a StrongBuy and TSEM is a StrongBuy.
Aroon Indicator for MTSI shows an upward move is likely
MTSI's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 264 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 217 of the 264 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for MTSI's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +9.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTSI advanced for three days, in 258 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTSI as a result. In 65 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTSI turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
MTSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
MTSI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.710) is normal, around the industry mean (6.008). P/E Ratio (73.595) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.098). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.611) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Aroon Indicator for TSEM shows an upward move is likely
TSEM's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 302 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 240 of the 302 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for TSEM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +7.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TSEM advanced for three days, in 220 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TSEM as a result. In 44 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TSEM turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
TSEM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TSEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TSEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
TSEM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TSEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.137) is normal, around the industry mean (6.008). P/E Ratio (65.198) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.098). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.426) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.514) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
MTSI | TSEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 81 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 49 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 51 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTSI's Valuation (83) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSEM (86). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to TSEM’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (49) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSEM (49). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to TSEM’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's SMR Rating (51) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSEM (71). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to TSEM’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSEM (48). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to TSEM’s over the last 12 months.
TSEM's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTSI (79). This means that TSEM’s stock grew significantly faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| MTSI | TSEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 75% | 18 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 73% | 12 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 79% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MTSI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TSEM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MTSI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TSEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MTSI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSEM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MTSI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TSEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
MTSI (@Semiconductors) experienced а -15.35% price change this week, while TSEM (@Semiconductors) price change was -20.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.48%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
TSEM is expected to report earnings on Nov 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-3.48% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with SMTC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then SMTC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | -15.87% | ||
| SMTC - MTSI | 78% Closely correlated | -11.66% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 78% Closely correlated | -9.13% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| TSEM - MTSI | 69% Closely correlated | -11.52% | ||
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TSEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSEM has been closely correlated with SMTC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSEM jumps, then SMTC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSEM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSEM | 100% | -11.52% | ||
| SMTC - TSEM | 70% Closely correlated | -11.66% | ||
| MTSI - TSEM | 67% Closely correlated | -15.87% | ||
| LSCC - TSEM | 61% Loosely correlated | -10.57% | ||
| AMKR - TSEM | 61% Loosely correlated | -10.70% | ||
| VSH - TSEM | 61% Loosely correlated | -9.54% | ||
More | ||||