MTSI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc is a provider of analog, digital, and mixed-signal semiconductor solutions to original equipment manufacturers and distributors... Show more
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock Analysis: Record Bookings Meet Semiconductor Volatility
Key Takeaways
- MTSI shares have been volatile yet roughly flat over the trailing 30 days, easing from around $276 in mid-September to near $268 by mid-October — a decline of approximately 2.7% — despite touching an intraday high above $350 in early October.
- Fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 35.8% year over year to $342.2 million, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.40, and management guided fiscal fourth-quarter revenue to a range of $415 million to $425 million.
- Data center remains the standout growth engine, with revenue up roughly 40% sequentially to a record $137.6 million, driven by 800G and 1.6T PAM4 connectivity demand.
- A record 1.6:1 book-to-bill ratio and a record backlog point to strengthening demand visibility across all three end markets.
- Strong fundamentals have been offset by an elevated valuation and broader semiconductor sector rotation, which have amplified near-term price swings.
Current Market Snapshot
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings has delivered one of the more volatile trading patterns among analog and optical semiconductor names in recent weeks. After consolidating in the mid-to-high $270s in September, the stock surged past $350 in early October before giving back those gains and settling near the $265–$270 range. Over the trailing three months, the share price has been roughly flat, while the stock remains up about 90% over the trailing one-year period — a reflection of how rapidly investors re-rated the company's data center and defense growth story before a sharp consolidation took hold.
MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Business Overview and Competitive Position
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. designs and manufactures high-performance analog, radio frequency (RF), microwave, millimeter-wave, and optical/photonic semiconductor products for three primary end markets: Data Center, Industrial & Defense (I&D), and Telecommunications. Headquartered in Lowell, Massachusetts, the company serves more than 6,000 customers with a portfolio spanning integrated circuits, multi-chip modules, diodes, amplifiers, switches, and optical subsystems.
A defining competitive advantage is MACOM's in-house compound semiconductor fabrication — including gallium arsenide (GaAs), gallium nitride (GaN), and indium phosphide (InP) — across its Lowell, Ann Arbor, France, and North Carolina facilities. This vertically integrated capability supports proprietary processes, domestic supply for defense customers, and tighter control over yields and lead times. The company competes with larger analog and networking suppliers such as Broadcom, Analog Devices, Marvell Technology, and Qorvo.
Recent Developments Driving MTSI
MACOM's fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, reported in early August, reinforced the company's growth trajectory. Revenue climbed 35.8% year over year to $342.2 million, while adjusted EPS of $1.40 rose 55.6% and beat consensus estimates. Management attributed the strength to broad-based demand, with data center revenue reaching a record $137.6 million on the back of 800G and 1.6T PAM4 connectivity, 200G-per-lane photodetectors ramping in volume production, and a record 1.6:1 book-to-bill ratio.
Guidance was equally notable: fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $415 million to $425 million and adjusted EPS of $1.97 to $2.03 both came in well above the prevailing consensus. Management also indicated data center growth for fiscal 2026 is trending toward roughly 74%, while the defense business is expected to grow about 25% on radar, missile, and electronic-warfare demand. The company continues to invest in its CW laser program — targeting potential production around late 2027 into 2028 — and made a $61 million strategic investment in compound semiconductor wafer supplier IQE to strengthen supply-chain resilience. Analysts have responded with a mix of target increases and more cautious valuation calls, reflecting both confidence in execution and concern over the stock's premium multiple.
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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the key catalyst for MTSI is its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 report, where investors will assess whether the company's record bookings translate into the guided $415 million to $425 million revenue range and continued gross-margin expansion toward the 60%–61% level. Data center execution remains central, particularly the pace of 1.6T and 800G platform deployments and the ramp of 200G-per-lane photodetectors.
Beyond near-term results, watch for progress on the CW laser qualification timeline, defense program wins, and low-Earth-orbit satellite programs entering production around late 2026 into 2027. Macroeconomic factors — including hyperscaler capital spending, semiconductor cyclicality, and input-cost inflation — as well as the company's ongoing engagement with the CHIPS office on manufacturing capacity will also shape the narrative. Given the stock's elevated valuation and above-average volatility, execution against guidance and the durability of data center demand will be the most closely watched variables.
Disclaimer
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MTSI's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for MTSI moved out of oversold territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +7.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTSI advanced for three days, in 263 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 199 of 262 cases where MTSI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 76%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MTSI as a result. In 65 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MTSI turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
MTSI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTSI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The 50-day moving average for MTSI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
MTSI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.013) is normal, around the industry mean (5.894). P/E Ratio (69.215) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.337). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.611) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
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General Information
a holding company whose subsidiaries provides high-performance analog semiconductor solutions
Industry Semiconductors