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NBIS vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nebius Group (NBIS) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NBIS is an Amsterdam-based AI cloud ("neocloud") provider with triple-digit revenue growth, while NVDA is the world's dominant AI chipmaker with a roughly $5.5 trillion market capitalization.
- NBIS has delivered far stronger recent price appreciation, gaining roughly 200% year to date, but also trades with much higher volatility and capital-intensity risk.
- NVDA offers established profitability, a trailing price-to-earnings ratio near 29, and a recent record high, reflecting steadier momentum than the neocloud sector.
- Both stocks are tied to the same AI infrastructure theme, yet they sit at opposite ends of the maturity and risk spectrum.
- Recent weeks have seen broad selling pressure in AI infrastructure names, weighing on NBIS more heavily than on NVDA.
Introduction
Investors tracking the artificial intelligence buildout frequently compare NBIS and NVDA, two names that sit at different layers of the same market. Nebius Group is a rapidly scaling AI cloud and infrastructure provider, while NVIDIA designs the accelerated-computing chips that much of that infrastructure runs on. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance, market positioning, and risk, as well as for longer-term investors weighing a high-growth, capital-intensive challenger against an established, highly profitable industry leader. Because both are sensitive to AI capital-spending sentiment, their recent price behavior offers a useful lens on how the market is pricing AI-related risk and reward.
NBIS Overview and Recent Performance
NBIS, or Nebius Group, is an Amsterdam-based AI infrastructure company that rents GPU (graphics processing unit) computing capacity to AI developers and enterprises. NVIDIA holds a strategic investment in the company, underscoring its position within the AI supply chain. Nebius has expanded aggressively, reporting group revenue of $582 million in its most recent quarter, up 454% year over year, with annualized run-rate revenue reaching $3 billion. The company has also secured multiple core AI cloud deals valued above $1 billion each and reaffirmed 2026 run-rate revenue guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion.
Recent market activity has been volatile. The stock has gained roughly 200% year to date but has pulled back meaningfully from its highs, reflecting concerns about heavy capital spending — with 2026 capital expenditure guidance of $20 billion to $25 billion — and broader worries about AI infrastructure valuations. An insider share sale by the chief operating officer, executed under a pre-arranged trading plan, also drew attention in recent weeks. Despite the pullback, Wall Street consensus remains a Moderate Buy, with an average price target suggesting further upside, though the company still reports negative earnings per share.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVDA, NVIDIA Corporation, designs and sells the GPUs and accelerated-computing platforms that power most large-scale AI training and inference workloads. With a market capitalization near $5.5 trillion and trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $216 billion, it is one of the largest and most profitable companies in the world. Net margins have held in the mid-50% range, and return on equity (ROE, a measure of how efficiently a company generates profit from shareholder capital) remains exceptionally high.
In recent weeks, NVDA reached a fresh record high before easing back, and it remains near its 52-week peak after gaining roughly 24% over the past year. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 19 and a PEG ratio (price-to-earnings divided by expected growth) below 0.5 reflect a more mature, profitable profile than the neocloud cohort. Sentiment has been supported by strong customer demand signals, though the stock is not immune to the periodic AI-spending fears that have periodically pressured the sector. Analyst coverage remains overwhelmingly positive.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies represent contrasting trade-offs. NBIS is a higher-beta, capital-intensive growth story whose valuation depends heavily on execution, continued access to financing, and the durability of AI infrastructure demand. NVDA is a profitable market leader whose scale, cash generation, and pricing power offer greater stability but more modest relative growth rates.
- Business model: NBIS sells access to AI computing capacity and platforms; NVDA sells the underlying silicon and software ecosystem.
- Growth drivers: NBIS benefits from surging demand for GPU cloud capacity; NVDA benefits from global data-center capital expenditure and expanding AI workloads.
- Recent momentum: NBIS has delivered outsized gains this year but with sharp drawdowns; NVDA has trended higher with comparatively lower volatility.
- Risk factors: NBIS faces funding, depreciation, and dilution risks; NVDA faces concentration, cyclical, and competitive risks.
- Valuation and profitability: NVDA is profitable with a moderate forward P/E, while NBIS remains unprofitable on an EPS basis and is valued on growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, profitability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely assign a higher probability of favorable risk-adjusted outcomes to NVDA in the current environment. Its steadier uptrend, established earnings, and lower reliance on external financing provide a more consistent technical and fundamental profile. NBIS may offer greater upside potential if AI infrastructure demand continues to accelerate, but its volatility, heavy capital requirements, and recent drawdown introduce more uncertainty. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting relative trend strength and stability rather than a forecast of future prices.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NBIS is a Hold and NVDA is a StrongBuy.
NBIS's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 10 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
Following a +0.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NBIS advanced for three days, in 122 of 138 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
NBIS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 113 of 115 cases where NBIS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NBIS as a result. In 29 of 37 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NBIS turned negative on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 18 of the 23 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
NBIS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NBIS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 7 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NBIS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 2 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.174) is normal, around the industry mean (1.012). NBIS's P/E Ratio (-3968.500) is considerably lower than the industry average of (-48.982). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.543) is also within normal values, averaging (17.274). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.985) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (42.735) is also within normal values, averaging (71.888).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NBIS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for NVDA shows an upward move is likely
NVDA's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 335 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 294 of the 335 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 296 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 57 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (22.246) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.017). P/E Ratio (26.536) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NBIS | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 2 Undervalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NBIS's Valuation (2) in the Internet Software Or Services industry is significantly better than the same rating for NVDA (81) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NBIS’s stock grew significantly faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NBIS (58) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew somewhat faster than NBIS’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for NBIS (90) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew significantly faster than NBIS’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NBIS (62) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to NBIS’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NBIS (100) in the Internet Software Or Services industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to NBIS’s over the last 12 months.
| NBIS | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 88% | 19 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 88% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NBIS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NBIS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NBIS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NBIS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NBIS (@Internet Software/Services) experienced а -4.07% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was -1.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Internet Software/Services industry was +0.46%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.21%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -3.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.49%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
NBIS is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Internet Software/Services (+0.46% weekly)Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.
@Semiconductors (-3.52% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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NBIS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NBIS has been loosely correlated with RUM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 41% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NBIS jumps, then RUM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NBIS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBIS | 100% | -0.27% | ||
| RUM - NBIS | 41% Loosely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| UPXI - NBIS | 32% Poorly correlated | -4.40% | ||
| SEAT - NBIS | 29% Poorly correlated | -0.73% | ||
| BIDU - NBIS | 28% Poorly correlated | -1.00% | ||
| TWLO - NBIS | 26% Poorly correlated | +3.22% | ||
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