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NCLH vs RCL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) vs. Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- RCL exhibits superior profitability with a 23.8% profit margin compared to NCLH's 4.3%, driven by stronger operational efficiency.
- RCL's market capitalization stands at $71 billion, dwarfing NCLH's $8.3 billion, enabling greater scale in bookings and pricing power.
- NCLH trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.52 versus RCL's 14.64, potentially indicating undervaluation.
- Both face headwinds from geopolitical tensions affecting fuel costs, but RCL benefits from two-thirds of 2026 capacity booked at record rates.
- Analyst price targets suggest solid upside: $24.61 for NCLH (about 35%) and $343.54 for RCL (around 33%).
- RCL delivers higher return on equity (ROE, a measure of profitability relative to shareholders' equity) at 47.7% versus NCLH's 23.3%.
Introduction
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) are prominent players in the cruise industry, offering leisure travel experiences amid a post-pandemic demand recovery. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, financial health, and market positioning in the current environment, marked by strong bookings yet challenged by geopolitical risks and fuel costs. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term growth in the consumer discretionary sector will find value in understanding their relative performance, valuations, and sector dynamics.
NCLH Overview and Recent Performance
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) operates premium cruise brands including Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas, focusing on freestyle cruising and upscale itineraries worldwide. In recent market activity, NCLH shares have hovered around $18, posting year-to-date gains of 18.5% that outpace the S&P 500. Sentiment has been mixed due to an earlier downward revision in 2026 earnings per share (EPS, a key profitability metric) guidance to $2.38, prompting a sharp sell-off, alongside high debt levels (debt-to-equity ratio of 703%). Recent weeks highlight upcoming first-quarter earnings on May 4 and concerns over Middle East tensions impacting routes and costs, though new ship introductions like Oceania Aurelia aim to bolster premium offerings.
RCL Overview and Recent Performance
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL), the world's second-largest cruise operator, manages brands such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea, emphasizing innovative ships and diverse destinations. Shares recently closed near $259, with year-to-date returns of 6.7% and one-year gains of 24%. Performance reflects robust demand, with two-thirds of 2026 capacity secured at record rates and strong quarterly revenue growth of 13.3% year-over-year. Key influences include orders for new Icon-class ships and elevated onboard spending, offsetting recent dips from broader market pressures and fuel cost uncertainties tied to global tensions. First-quarter earnings are slated for April 30, underscoring ongoing momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both NCLH and RCL thrive on leisure cruise demand, but RCL's larger fleet and premium brands drive higher yields and margins (21.98% operating margin vs. NCLH's 8.31%). Growth catalysts include capacity expansions, though RCL leads with superior quarterly earnings growth (36.6% vs. -94.4%). Recent momentum favors RCL on one-year returns, while NCLH edges year-to-date amid valuation appeal. Risks diverge: NCLH's elevated debt (703% debt-to-equity) heightens leverage concerns versus RCL's 215%; both exposed to fuel volatility and geopolitical disruptions. Market sentiment tilts toward RCL for execution strength.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors RCL over NCLH, citing greater trend consistency in revenue growth, profitability metrics, and forward bookings amid sector recovery. RCL's stronger ROE and lower relative debt position it probabilistically better for stability and catalysts like new vessels, though NCLH's cheaper forward valuation offers contrarian appeal if demand rebounds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NCLH is a StrongBuy and RCL is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NCLH’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileRCL’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- NCLH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RCL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NCLH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RCL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NCLH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RCL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NCLH (@Consumer Sundries) experienced а +2.24% price change this week, while RCL (@Consumer Sundries) price change was -1.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Consumer Sundries industry was -3.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
NCLH is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
RCL is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Consumer Sundries (-3.07% weekly)Consumer sundries companies make products that usually do not have another classification, such as lawn and garden products, pest-control products, pet food and pet products like leashes, collars, and harnesses. Central Garden & Pet Company and Dogness (International) Corporation are examples of companies operating in this industry.
| NCLH | RCL | NCLH / RCL | |
| Capitalization | 8.61B | 75.1B | 11% |
| EBITDA | 2.67B | 7.39B | 36% |
| Gain YTD | -15.995 | 1.445 | -1,107% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.12 | 17.08 | 89% |
| Revenue | 10B | 18.4B | 54% |
| Total Cash | 185M | 512M | 36% |
| Total Debt | 15.2B | 21.8B | 70% |
NCLH | RCL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 63 Fair valued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 44 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RCL's Valuation (38) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as NCLH (63). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to NCLH’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is significantly better than the same rating for NCLH (100). This means that RCL’s stock grew significantly faster than NCLH’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's SMR Rating (20) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as NCLH (34). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to NCLH’s over the last 12 months.
RCL's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is in the same range as NCLH (54). This means that RCL’s stock grew similarly to NCLH’s over the last 12 months.
NCLH's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Hotels Or Resorts Or Cruiselines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RCL (75). This means that NCLH’s stock grew somewhat faster than RCL’s over the last 12 months.
| NCLH | RCL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 7 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 80% | 21 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 74% |
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NCLH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NCLH has been closely correlated with CCL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NCLH jumps, then CCL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NCLH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 100% | -1.99% | ||
| CCL - NCLH | 82% Closely correlated | -1.58% | ||
| CUK - NCLH | 81% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| RCL - NCLH | 72% Closely correlated | -4.53% | ||
| VIK - NCLH | 69% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| LIND - NCLH | 57% Loosely correlated | -2.39% | ||
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RCL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RCL has been closely correlated with CCL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RCL jumps, then CCL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RCL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCL | 100% | -4.53% | ||
| CCL - RCL | 79% Closely correlated | -1.58% | ||
| NCLH - RCL | 72% Closely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| VIK - RCL | 71% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| LIND - RCL | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.39% | ||
| EXPE - RCL | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.75% | ||
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