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NEM vs RGLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Newmont Corporation (NEM) vs. Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: NEM is the world's largest gold producer, while RGLD operates as a royalty and streaming company with limited direct mining risk.
- Relative performance: Both stocks have rallied on record gold prices, but NEM has shown stronger recent momentum and a larger year-to-date advance.
- Margin profiles differ sharply: RGLD runs a high-margin, low-cost model, while NEM carries direct exposure to rising operating and sustaining costs.
- Risk characteristics: RGLD offers diversification across hundreds of assets with a lower beta (a measure of volatility versus the market), while NEM provides stronger operational leverage to gold prices.
- Capital returns: Both companies have expanded buybacks and dividends amid record free cash flow generation.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to precious metals often face a key strategic choice: own a large-scale gold producer or a royalty and streaming company. NEM (Newmont Corporation) and RGLD (Royal Gold, Inc.) represent these two contrasting approaches within the gold sector. Both have benefited from historically elevated gold prices, yet they differ meaningfully in how they generate earnings, manage risk, and respond to rising costs. This stock comparison examines recent performance, market positioning, and key developments to help traders and investors assess which structure may be better suited to their objectives in the current market environment.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
NEM is the world's largest gold mining company by production, operating a diversified portfolio of mines across North and South America, Australia, and Africa, with meaningful copper, silver, zinc, and lead by-product exposure. In recent market activity, the stock has traded near the upper end of its 52-week range, supported by record gold and silver prices and strong earnings.
Recent financial results have been notable. The company reported record quarterly free cash flow (cash remaining after capital spending) of roughly $3.1 billion, up about 161% year over year, alongside record earnings and a growing cash balance. Management has expanded shareholder returns through dividends and an enlarged share repurchase authorization. These developments have reinforced positive sentiment and driven relative outperformance versus the broader mining sector.
At the same time, production has trended lower in recent quarters, partly reflecting divestitures of non-core assets as the company focuses on its highest-quality, or "Tier 1," operations. Guidance points to moderately lower output and higher all-in sustaining costs (AISC — the full cost of producing an ounce of gold, including sustaining capital) for the year, a factor that could temper margin expansion even as metal prices remain elevated.
RGLD Overview and Recent Performance
RGLD is a precious metals royalty and streaming company that acquires non-operating interests in mines. Instead of extracting metal itself, the company receives a percentage of revenue or the right to purchase metal at a fixed, discounted price. This structure limits exposure to operating costs and capital risk while retaining leverage to metal prices.
Recent results reflect the strength of this model. The company posted record quarterly revenue of roughly $469 million, up more than 140% year over year, and record net income, driven by sharply higher gold, silver, and copper prices and contributions from newly acquired interests. Its portfolio spans more than 360 assets, of which about 80 are currently generating revenue, providing substantial diversification across operators and jurisdictions.
Royal Gold has also maintained a consistent record of shareholder returns, having increased its dividend every year for more than two decades, and recently authorized a $500 million share repurchase program. In recent weeks, the stock has consolidated below its 52-week high, reflecting some profit-taking after a strong multi-month run, even as underlying fundamentals remain firm.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two names lies in their business models. NEM operates mines directly, which gives it stronger earnings leverage to rising gold prices but also exposes it to labor, energy, and sustaining-capital inflation. RGLD, by contrast, earns a share of revenue with largely fixed costs, producing very high operating margins and reduced exposure to cost inflation.
On recent momentum, NEM has outperformed, gaining more than 30% over the past six months versus a mid-teens gain for the broader mining industry, aided by record free cash flow and a large buyback program. RGLD has also advanced strongly over the past year but has consolidated in recent weeks after reaching a 52-week high earlier in the year.
Valuation and risk also differ. RGLD typically trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, reflecting its lower-risk, higher-margin profile and a lower beta. NEM trades at a more modest multiple but carries greater operational and cost variability. For sector exposure, NEM offers concentrated gold-mining leverage, while RGLD provides broader, diversified exposure across numerous mines and operators.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NEM in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated stronger recent relative performance, sustained positive trend signals above key moving averages, and visible catalysts from record free cash flow and an aggressive buyback program. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: RGLD presents a compelling case for investors prioritizing stability, diversification, and lower volatility, with a steadier cost structure and a long history of growing dividends. The appropriate choice ultimately depends on whether an investor seeks maximum operational leverage to gold prices or a lower-risk royalty-based exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NEM is a Hold and RGLD is a Hold.
NEM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 52 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NEM turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 60 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 60 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 250 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.262) is normal, around the industry mean (1.743). P/E Ratio (13.705) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.676). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.357) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
RGLD in +3.35% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 28, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RGLD advanced for three days, in 263 of 369 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RGLD's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RGLD as a result. In 51 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RGLD just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where RGLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The 50-day moving average for RGLD moved above the 200-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
RGLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 38 of 56 cases where RGLD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
RGLD moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for RGLD crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RGLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for RGLD entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RGLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.579) is normal, around the industry mean (1.743). P/E Ratio (25.460) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-12.676). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.480) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.357) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.563) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
NEM | RGLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 85 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 38 | 60 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RGLD's Valuation (71) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (93). This means that RGLD’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (36). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's SMR Rating (38) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (60). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
RGLD's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (48). This means that RGLD’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as RGLD (44). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to RGLD’s over the last 12 months.
| NEM | RGLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 78% | 7 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 66% | 5 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 7 days ago 52% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NEM’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RGLD’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NEM’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RGLD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NEM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RGLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NEM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RGLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а -1.18% price change this week, while RGLD (@Precious Metals) price change was +0.80% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -8.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
RGLD is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-8.25% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
RGLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RGLD has been closely correlated with WPM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RGLD jumps, then WPM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RGLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RGLD | 100% | -2.15% | ||
| WPM - RGLD | 90% Closely correlated | -1.45% | ||
| AEM - RGLD | 87% Closely correlated | -1.84% | ||
| OR - RGLD | 86% Closely correlated | -1.89% | ||
| KGC - RGLD | 86% Closely correlated | -3.06% | ||
| NEM - RGLD | 85% Closely correlated | -1.49% | ||
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