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NEM vs WPM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Newmont Corporation (NEM) vs. Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NEM is the world's largest gold mining operator, while WPM is a precious metals streaming company that does not operate mines.
- Both companies are riding record precious metals prices, but their business models produce very different risk and margin profiles.
- NEM posted record free cash flow, yet faces rising costs and declining production guidance into 2026.
- WPM delivered record revenue, earnings, and cash flow, boosted by a historic $4.3 billion silver streaming deal with BHP.
- NEM trades at a comparatively modest valuation, while WPM carries a premium multiple reflecting its lower-risk, higher-margin model.
- Analyst consensus is constructive on both names, though their recent momentum and risk exposures diverge.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to gold and silver often weigh two very different vehicles: a traditional mining operator such as NEM (Newmont Corporation) and a streaming and royalty business such as WPM (Wheaton Precious Metals). Both have benefited from the powerful rally in precious metals over the past year, but their structures, cash-flow dynamics, and sensitivity to operational and cost factors differ meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and for longer-term investors deciding between direct mining exposure and a capital-light, royalty-style model. The sections below examine recent performance, market positioning, and how an AI-driven approach might currently weigh the two.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation is the largest gold producer globally, operating a diversified portfolio of mines across North America, Australia, South America, and Africa, with gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead exposure. Recent weeks have highlighted a powerful earnings backdrop: the company reported record first-quarter 2026 free cash flow of roughly $3.1 billion, up 161% year over year, supported by strong realized gold prices and lower capital spending. The shares have rallied substantially over the past year, aided by gold trading near record highs.
That strength, however, is tempered by operational headwinds. Management guided to lower attributable gold production in 2026, around 5.26 million ounces versus 5.89 million in 2025, partly due to planned mine sequencing and non-core asset divestitures. All-in sustaining costs (AISC), a key metric reflecting total costs of producing each ounce, are expected to rise to roughly $1,680 per ounce from $1,358 in 2025, pressured by lower volumes, higher royalties, and deferred sustaining capital. Newmont has responded with an enhanced capital allocation framework, including share repurchases and a sustainable dividend, while maintaining a net cash position. Analysts broadly rate the stock a Buy, though near-term sentiment reflects the balance between record cash generation and a softer production and cost outlook.
WPM Overview and Recent Performance
Wheaton Precious Metals is one of the world's leading precious metals streaming companies. Rather than operating mines, it provides miners with upfront capital in exchange for the right to purchase future gold, silver, and other metals at fixed, low per-ounce prices—a model that generates high margins without the operational and capital burdens of mining. Recent market activity has been marked by record results: first-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $901 million, net earnings of about $582 million, and operating cash flow of roughly $766 million, all company records, driven by strong contributions from assets such as Salobo and Peñasquito.
A defining development was the completion of a $4.3 billion silver streaming agreement with BHP at the Antamina mine in Peru, effective April 2026—the largest transaction in the company's history—raising its share of Antamina's payable silver. Wheaton reaffirmed 2026 attributable production guidance of 860,000 to 940,000 gold-equivalent ounces (GEOs), up roughly 30% at the midpoint, and raised its dividend by 18%. The stock surged earlier in the year before pulling back from its highs, and it now trades at a premium valuation relative to the broader mining sector. Analysts maintain a broadly constructive stance, citing the company's leverage to metal prices and its lower-risk, capital-light profile.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between NEM and WPM is business-model risk versus margin quality. As a mine operator, Newmont carries direct exposure to operating costs, labor, fuel, maintenance, royalties, and capital intensity—factors visible in its rising AISC and declining production guidance. Its reward is scale and direct control over a world-class asset base, plus strong free cash flow when metal prices cooperate.
Wheaton, by contrast, avoids mining operations entirely. Its fixed, low per-ounce purchase costs give it some of the highest cash margins in the sector and amplify upside when gold and silver prices rise. However, it depends on the operational success of third-party mines, carries concentration risk at key assets such as Salobo and Antamina, and trades at a higher earnings multiple. In recent weeks, NEM's record cash generation has competed with a softer volume and cost narrative, while WPM's record quarter and transformative Antamina deal have supported premium positioning but leave it sensitive to any pullback in silver prices or partner-mine underperformance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward WPM in the current environment. The streaming model's combination of record revenue, earnings, and cash flow, structurally high margins, and a step-change in scale from the Antamina transaction suggests more consistent trend quality and stability. NEM's record free cash flow is meaningful, but rising AISC and guided production declines introduce cost and operational friction that can weigh on relative positioning. Because AI systems favor probabilistic trend consistency and lower operational complexity, WPM's steadier margin profile gives it a modest current edge—though the conclusion remains conditional on sustained precious metals pricing and successful integration of its new streams.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NEM is a Hold and WPM is a StrongBuy.
NEM in -1.51% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NEM declined for three days, in 181 of 276 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 62 cases where NEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 47 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.412) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (14.335) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
WPM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
WPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 36 of 41 cases where WPM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for WPM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +3.55% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WPM advanced for three days, in 249 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WPM as a result. In 47 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
WPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WPM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for WPM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WPM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.789) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (27.354) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.400) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. WPM's P/S Ratio (21.053) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NEM | WPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 56 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 38 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WPM's Valuation (78) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (93). This means that WPM’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
WPM's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (33). This means that WPM’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's SMR Rating (38) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as WPM (41). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as WPM (46). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to WPM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WPM (87). This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than WPM’s over the last 12 months.
| NEM | WPM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 78% | 7 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NEM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while WPM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- WPM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NEM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WPM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NEM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- WPM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NEM (@Precious Metals) experienced а -1.45% price change this week, while WPM (@Precious Metals) price change was -7.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
WPM is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.92% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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