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NGVC vs WMK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NGVC) vs. Weis Markets (WMK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NGVC is a smaller, faster-expanding natural and organic specialty grocer with a roughly $705 million market capitalization and a forward-looking store-growth strategy.
- WMK is a larger, family-controlled Mid-Atlantic conventional grocer with a market value near $1.8–2.0 billion and a more mature, balance-sheet-heavy profile.
- Recent momentum diverges: WMK delivered sharply higher earnings in its latest quarter, while NGVC grew comparable sales but saw margins compress and trimmed guidance.
- Valuation and risk profiles differ materially, with NGVC trading at a lower forward earnings multiple and WMK carrying a premium relative to grocery peers.
Introduction
Grocery retail rarely delivers headline-grabbing volatility, yet the sector consistently produces meaningful relative-performance gaps between specialty and conventional operators. Comparing NGVC (Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.) and WMK (Weis Markets, Inc.) offers a useful lens on two distinct ways to invest in food retail: one a high-growth, natural-and-organic niche player, the other an established, dividend-paying regional supermarket chain. This stock comparison is most relevant to investors weighing growth potential against stability, and to traders assessing recent momentum, valuation, and market positioning across the grocery segment.
NGVC Overview and Recent Performance
NGVC operates a chain of natural and organic grocery and dietary supplement stores, with a store base that has grown to roughly 172 locations across 22 states. The company differentiates through strict product-quality standards, an "Always Affordable" pricing strategy, and a growing loyalty program that recently reached about 84% of sales penetration.
In recent market activity, NGVC has shown a mixed picture. Comparable-store sales accelerated modestly in recent quarters, and the company continued opening new stores, but gross margin slipped as higher inventory shrink and freight costs weighed on results. Management narrowed its full-year outlook for both comparable sales and earnings per share, citing an evolving consumer environment. The stock has rebounded in recent weeks but remains well below its 52-week high, reflecting a market that is rewarding steady execution while remaining cautious about margin pressure and rising short interest.
WMK Overview and Recent Performance
WMK is a Mid-Atlantic food retailer operating about 201 stores across Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, West Virginia, and Virginia. Founded in 1912, the company is majority family-controlled and maintains a notably conservative balance sheet with minimal long-term debt relative to its cash position.
Recent results for WMK have been solid. Total revenue rose mid-single digits in its latest reported quarter, and net income increased more than 40% year over year, helped by promotional investments and an enhanced loyalty program. Comparable-store sales excluding fuel grew modestly on both a one-year and two-year stacked basis. The stock has advanced over the trailing year and trades at a premium price-to-earnings ratio relative to grocery peers, suggesting the market already prices in much of its steady profitability and dividend reliability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies occupy different corners of food retail. NGVC is a growth-oriented specialty grocer with a smaller store footprint, a multi-year unit-expansion target of roughly 4–5% annually, and a natural-and-organic niche that carries a differentiated but potentially higher-cost operating model. Its growth drivers center on new store openings, loyalty penetration, and private-label expansion, while its key risks include margin pressure from shrink, freight costs, and a value-conscious consumer.
WMK, by contrast, is a mature regional operator whose growth is driven by same-store execution, promotional strategy, and capital investments in store remodels and fuel centers. Its risks are more about competitive pricing pressure and slower structural growth than about expansion execution. On valuation, WMK trades at a meaningfully higher trailing earnings multiple than NGVC, while NGVC carries a lower forward multiple that reflects both its growth runway and the market's uncertainty around margins. In terms of market sentiment, WMK has shown steadier, lower-beta price behavior, whereas NGVC has displayed more volatility and a higher level of short interest.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WMK in the current environment. The company's latest results show stronger earnings momentum, a cleaner balance sheet, lower price volatility, and steadier trend consistency relative to NGVC, which is contending with margin compression and trimmed guidance even as its comparable sales improve. That said, the verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: NGVC offers a more compelling growth narrative and a lower forward valuation, which could appeal to strategies favoring expansion catalysts. The relative positioning ultimately depends on whether the prevailing market regime rewards stability and earnings quality, or growth and turnaround potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NGVC is a Buy and WMK is a Buy.
NGVC's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 1 day
Be on the lookout for a price bounce soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +9.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NGVC advanced for three days, in 222 of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NGVC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 179 of 252 cases where NGVC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NGVC moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NGVC as a result. In 63 of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NGVC turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
NGVC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NGVC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NGVC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.762) is normal, around the industry mean (59388.867). P/E Ratio (13.860) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.040). NGVC's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.010) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.979). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.505) is also within normal values, averaging (10.259).
WMK in +6.90% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 22, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where WMK advanced for three days, in 194 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
WMK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WMK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 99 of 206 cases where WMK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WMK moved out of overbought territory on October 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 68%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WMK as a result. In 61 of 102 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for WMK turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WMK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
WMK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WMK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.328) is normal, around the industry mean (59388.867). P/E Ratio (18.556) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.040). WMK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.850) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.979). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.356) is also within normal values, averaging (10.259).
NGVC | WMK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 97 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 79 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 70 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NGVC's Valuation (79) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as WMK (79). This means that NGVC’s stock grew similarly to WMK’s over the last 12 months.
WMK's Profit vs Risk Rating (52) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as NGVC (64). This means that WMK’s stock grew similarly to NGVC’s over the last 12 months.
NGVC's SMR Rating (45) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for WMK (78). This means that NGVC’s stock grew somewhat faster than WMK’s over the last 12 months.
WMK's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Food Retail industry is in the same range as NGVC (70). This means that WMK’s stock grew similarly to NGVC’s over the last 12 months.
WMK's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Food Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NGVC (77). This means that WMK’s stock grew somewhat faster than NGVC’s over the last 12 months.
| NGVC | WMK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 77% | 10 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 48% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NGVC’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while WMK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NGVC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- WMK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NGVC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WMK’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NGVC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- WMK’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NGVC (@Food Retail) experienced а -8.80% price change this week, while WMK (@Food Retail) price change was -5.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food Retail industry was -7.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
NGVC is expected to report earnings on Nov 19, 2026.
WMK is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Food Retail (-7.21% weekly)The food retail industry includes companies that sell food, beverage and household products. Items sold include grocery, gourmet food, fresh produce, and frozen food. Kroger Co., George Weston Ltd., Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. are examples of major food retailers. While e-commerce companies like Amazon have increasingly been ramping-up offerings in the food retail space, several traditional players have also been expanding their online presence to stand their ground against rising competition.
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NGVC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NGVC has been loosely correlated with WMK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NGVC jumps, then WMK could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NGVC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NGVC | 100% | +0.74% | ||
| WMK - NGVC | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.57% | ||
| KR - NGVC | 40% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| ACI - NGVC | 38% Loosely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| SFM - NGVC | 37% Loosely correlated | +3.54% | ||
| IMKTA - NGVC | 35% Loosely correlated | +1.07% | ||
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WMK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WMK has been closely correlated with IMKTA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 68% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WMK jumps, then IMKTA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WMK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMK | 100% | -0.57% | ||
| IMKTA - WMK | 68% Closely correlated | +1.07% | ||
| NGVC - WMK | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| ACI - WMK | 41% Loosely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| KR - WMK | 37% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| GO - WMK | 37% Loosely correlated | +0.39% | ||
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