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NMR vs XP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Nomura Holdings (NMR) vs. XP Inc. (XP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NMR (Nomura Holdings) is a Japan-based global investment bank reporting record full-year net income and a return on equity (ROE) near its target range, supported by buybacks and dividend growth.
- XP (XP Inc.) is a Brazilian investment platform and wealth manager whose shares have roughly doubled from recent lows, delivering sharply stronger year-to-date price momentum.
- The two businesses occupy different risk profiles: NMR leans on cyclical wholesale and wealth management income, while XP is more sensitive to Brazilian interest rates and equity-market activity.
- NMR trades at a lower earnings multiple with a higher dividend yield, whereas XP commands a higher valuation reflecting faster growth expectations.
- Recent analyst actions have been constructive on both names, though the drivers and catalysts differ meaningfully.
- Relative performance has favored XP over the trailing year, but NMR offers a more balanced income-plus-return profile.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to financial services outside the United States frequently encounter two very different growth stories: Japan's established capital-markets franchise and Brazil's fast-growing digital investment ecosystem. This stock comparison examines NMR (Nomura Holdings) and XP (XP Inc.), contrasting their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning. The comparison is most relevant to traders and investors seeking international diversification, income-oriented value, or higher-growth emerging-market exposure. While both operate in financial services, their drivers, risk factors, and valuation profiles make them useful benchmarks for evaluating how different regional and structural forces shape shareholder returns.
NMR Overview and Recent Performance
Nomura Holdings (NMR) is a Tokyo-headquartered global financial group spanning wealth management, investment management, and wholesale (institutional and capital-markets) banking. In recent weeks, the company has drawn attention for a record full-year result: group net revenue rose 15% year over year, and net income reached a record for the second consecutive year, with ROE of approximately 10.1%. Wealth management and wholesale divisions posted their highest income on record, and investment management assets under management (AUM) climbed by more than 50% to roughly JPY137 trillion.
Sentiment has also been supported by capital-return initiatives, including a share buyback program of up to JPY60 billion and an increased annual dividend. Analyst activity has turned more favorable, with upgrades citing improved profitability and relative valuation. The stock's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio — a key measure of bank capital strength — remained solid near 12.9%. Recent market activity reflects a lower-beta, value-oriented profile, with a single-digit earnings multiple and a dividend yield above 3%.
XP Overview and Recent Performance
XP Inc. (XP) is a Brazilian financial services platform offering brokerage, wealth management, banking, and education products across retail, high-income, and institutional clients. Its recent performance has been among the more dynamic in the sector, with the shares roughly doubling from their prior-year lows and posting a year-to-date return well ahead of most financial peers. In its most recent quarterly results, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beat consensus, client assets rose 17% year over year to about BRL 2.2 trillion, and the company recorded BRL 28 billion in net new money.
Growth has been led by retail revenue and a strong expansion in wholesale banking, which surged year over year. Analysts have raised price targets in response to the re-rating, while noting that further upside depends on sustained earnings momentum. Unlike NMR, XP carries a higher earnings multiple and a modest dividend yield, reflecting a growth-oriented profile tied to Brazilian interest rates, capital-markets activity, and the pace of client asset accumulation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between NMR and XP is structural. Nomura is a mature, diversified investment bank whose earnings depend on global capital-markets activity, wealth-management fees, and asset-management flows. XP is a younger, tech-enabled platform whose economics are tied to Brazilian client growth, interest-rate cycles, and equity-trading volumes.
On momentum, XP has been the stronger performer over the trailing year, benefiting from a sharp re-rating and expanding client assets. NMR has delivered steadier, more income-supported appreciation, with its lower volatility and dividend yield providing a different risk-reward balance. On valuation, NMR trades at a noticeably lower price-to-earnings ratio, while XP's premium reflects higher expected growth. Risk factors also diverge: NMR faces exposure to global trading conditions and regulatory costs, while XP is sensitive to Brazil's monetary policy and competitive pressures from incumbent banks. Sector exposure, growth durability, and income needs are the key trade-offs separating the two.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative positioning, and catalyst profiles, Tickeron's AI would likely favor XP on momentum and trend strength, given its sustained uptrend and superior recent price performance. However, for stability-oriented, income-focused positioning, NMR would likely appear more attractive on valuation, dividend support, and lower volatility. The probabilistic assessment is nuanced: a trend-following model may lean toward XP, while a quality-and-value framework may prefer NMR. Neither conclusion is definitive, and relative rankings can shift quickly as market conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NMR is a Buy and XP is a Hold.
NMR's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for NMR moved out of oversold territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 26 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 20 of the 26 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.10% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NMR advanced for three days, in 206 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
NMR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NMR as a result. In 37 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NMR turned negative on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 46%.
NMR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NMR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for NMR entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NMR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 79 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.007) is normal, around the industry mean (3.638). P/E Ratio (0.067) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.944). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.815) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (7.191) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.472) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for XP shows an upward move is likely
XP's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 201 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In 152 of the 201 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for XP moved above the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +7.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XP advanced for three days, in 215 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XP moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 53 cases where XP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XP turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
XP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.622) is normal, around the industry mean (3.638). P/E Ratio (2.973) is within average values for comparable stocks, (8.944). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.970) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (7.191) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.325) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. XP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
NMR | XP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 79 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 1 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 34 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 95 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NMR's Valuation (79) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as XP (84) in the null industry. This means that NMR’s stock grew similarly to XP’s over the last 12 months.
NMR's Profit vs Risk Rating (21) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is significantly better than the same rating for XP (100) in the null industry. This means that NMR’s stock grew significantly faster than XP’s over the last 12 months.
NMR's SMR Rating (1) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for XP (43) in the null industry. This means that NMR’s stock grew somewhat faster than XP’s over the last 12 months.
XP's Price Growth Rating (34) in the null industry is in the same range as NMR (54) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that XP’s stock grew similarly to NMR’s over the last 12 months.
XP's P/E Growth Rating (95) in the null industry is in the same range as NMR (97) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry. This means that XP’s stock grew similarly to NMR’s over the last 12 months.
| NMR | XP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 7 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NMR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while XP’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NMR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XP’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NMR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XP’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NMR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- XP’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NMR (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -0.43% price change this week, while XP (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -0.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -5.09%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -16.78%, and the average quarterly price growth was -13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
NMR is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
XP is expected to report earnings on Nov 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-5.09% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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