Advertisement
NOG vs TPL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) vs. Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NOG, a non-operated oil and gas producer, reported record Q1 production of approximately 148,000 BOE/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day), driving recent stock gains amid strong earnings.
- TPL, a Permian Basin landowner with royalty interests, has delivered superior YTD returns of 51.14%, outpacing NOG's 25.35%.
- TPL's asset-light royalty model offers lower operational risk and higher margins compared to NOG's non-operated working interest approach.
- Recent market activity shows volatility for both, with NOG gaining post-earnings and TPL experiencing share price swings despite strong fundamentals.
- TPL boasts a significantly larger market cap ($29.9B vs. $2.8B for NOG), reflecting its scale in the Permian Basin.
- Both stocks benefit from energy sector tailwinds, but TPL's lower beta (0.77) suggests greater stability.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines NOG and TPL, two energy companies with significant exposure to prolific U.S. oil basins like the Permian and Bakken. NOG pursues non-operated interests for flexible capital deployment, while TPL leverages vast land holdings for royalties and water services. Investors seeking relative performance insights in the volatile energy sector, particularly those focused on production growth versus passive income streams, will find this analysis relevant. Amid fluctuating oil prices and sector momentum, understanding their business models, recent trajectories, and market positioning aids informed decision-making in today's environment.
NOG Overview and Recent Performance
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) is an independent energy firm specializing in non-operated working interests in crude oil and natural gas properties across U.S. basins, including the Bakken, Three Forks, and Appalachia. This model allows participation in high-quality drilling without full operational control, providing capital efficiency and diversification.
In recent market activity, NOG shares have shown resilience, trading around $26.50 with a 52-week range of $20.18–$32.62. Year-to-date gains stand at 25.35%, supported by a Q1 earnings beat where revenue reached $539.86 million and production hit a record ~148,000 BOE/d, up 6% sequentially. Appalachia and Williston Basin assets led performance. Sentiment has improved on strong execution and oil price support, though the stock remains sensitive to commodity fluctuations and broader energy sector pressures.
TPL Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) owns extensive acreage in the Permian Basin, generating revenue through oil and gas royalties, water services, and land management. Its low-capex royalty model (non-participating perpetual royalty interests) delivers high margins with minimal operational risk, complemented by produced water royalties and infrastructure.
Recently, TPL shares hover near $433.62, within a 52-week range of $269.23–$547.20. YTD performance is robust at 51.14%, though recent weeks have seen volatility with a modest monthly dip. Key drivers include record prior-quarter royalties and investments like $50 million in Permian data infrastructure. Positive analyst adjustments and Permian activity sustain sentiment, despite share price swings tied to oil dynamics.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the top 25 performers from over 350 AI trading bots that analyze thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and sectors. These bots employ advanced models for momentum, sector rotation, and pattern recognition, delivering standout stats like annualized returns up to +163%, win rates of 51–88% (averaging ~60–70%), and profit factors exceeding 11 in some cases. Examples include semi-conductor bots with +96% returns on 60-minute trades and energy-focused agents yielding +76% on multi-ticker portfolios. Styles range from intraday (5–60 minutes) to swing trading (up to 49 days), catering to various risk appetites. This dynamic selection highlights bots best suited to current conditions. Traders can explore these tools to enhance strategies—visit the page for live performance and copy-trading options.
Head-to-Head Comparison
NOG and TPL both capitalize on U.S. shale plays but diverge in models: NOG's non-operated E&P (exploration and production) involves joint ventures with operators, offering growth via acquisitions but exposing it to drilling risks and capex variability. TPL's royalty-centric approach yields steady cash flows from ~868,000 Permian acres, bolstered by water operations for diversification.
Growth drivers contrast: NOG targets production ramps in multiple basins, while TPL benefits from lessee activity without direct costs. Recent momentum favors TPL's 51% YTD surge over NOG's 25%, though NOG shows short-term strength post-earnings. Risk profiles differ—NOG faces higher operational and commodity volatility (beta ~0.96), versus TPL's lower beta (0.77) and asset-light stability. Sector exposure is Permian-heavy for both, but TPL's scale ($30B market cap) amplifies positioning. Market sentiment tilts toward TPL for reliability, while NOG appeals for upside potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis currently leans toward TPL with higher probability for near-term outperformance. Factors include superior YTD momentum, lower volatility (beta 0.77), consistent royalty stability, and larger Permian positioning amid sustained basin activity. While NOG exhibits strong production trends and post-earnings resilience, its higher risk profile and dependence on operator execution introduce more uncertainty. This assessment reflects observable trends and relative strength, subject to market shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NOG is a Hold and TPL is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NOG’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTPL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- NOG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TPL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NOG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TPL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NOG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TPL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
NOG (@Oil & Gas Production) experienced а -11.83% price change this week, while TPL (@Oil & Gas Production) price change was -6.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil & Gas Production industry was -3.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +34.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
NOG is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TPL is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil & Gas Production (-3.16% weekly)The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.
| NOG | TPL | NOG / TPL | |
| Capitalization | 2.5B | 27.8B | 9% |
| EBITDA | 159M | 706M | 23% |
| Gain YTD | 11.691 | 40.342 | 29% |
| P/E Ratio | 70.67 | 55.23 | 128% |
| Revenue | 2.06B | 839M | 245% |
| Total Cash | 37M | 248M | 15% |
| Total Debt | 2.55B | 15.8M | 16,152% |
NOG | TPL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 28 Undervalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 53 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 69 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NOG's Valuation (28) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TPL (85) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that NOG’s stock grew somewhat faster than TPL’s over the last 12 months.
TPL's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as NOG (62) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that TPL’s stock grew similarly to NOG’s over the last 12 months.
TPL's SMR Rating (26) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is significantly better than the same rating for NOG (96) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that TPL’s stock grew significantly faster than NOG’s over the last 12 months.
TPL's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry is in the same range as NOG (62) in the Oil And Gas Production industry. This means that TPL’s stock grew similarly to NOG’s over the last 12 months.
NOG's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Oil And Gas Production industry is significantly better than the same rating for TPL (69) in the Investment Trusts Or Mutual Funds industry. This means that NOG’s stock grew significantly faster than TPL’s over the last 12 months.
| NOG | TPL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 76% | 13 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | N/A |
Advertisement
TPL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TPL has been loosely correlated with TNEYF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 48% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TPL jumps, then TNEYF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TPL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPL | 100% | +2.14% | ||
| TNEYF - TPL | 48% Loosely correlated | +1.61% | ||
| ZPTAF - TPL | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| NOG - TPL | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.98% | ||
| CDDRF - TPL | 44% Loosely correlated | +2.28% | ||
| PRMRF - TPL | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.09% | ||
More | ||||