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CMC vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals (CMC) vs. Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CMC is a diversified steel manufacturer, recycler, and fabricator leaning into higher-margin "Construction Solutions," while STLD is a larger, vertically integrated steel and metals recycler now ramping an aluminum flat-rolled platform.
- STLD has delivered stronger recent momentum, with shares up roughly 76% over the past year versus a more modest gain for CMC.
- Both names are benefiting from higher realized steel pricing, wider metal spreads, and low customer inventories, though both have pulled back from 52-week highs in recent market activity.
- CMC trades at a lower forward earnings multiple, while STLD carries a higher-growth aluminum expansion story and larger scale.
- Key risks include cyclical steel demand, execution on growth projects, and trade-policy sensitivity for both companies.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company and Steel Dynamics, Inc. are two prominent names in the North American steel and metals space, yet they occupy distinct positions in the value chain. CMC operates a diversified model spanning steel manufacturing, recycling, and downstream fabrication with a growing emphasis on construction-focused products. STLD is one of the largest domestic steel producers and metal recyclers in North America, now diversifying into recycled-content aluminum. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing scale and growth optionality against a leaner, more value-oriented business model, and for those tracking how relative performance and market positioning shift across the steel cycle.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
CMC manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, with operations spanning the United States, Poland, and international markets. In recent quarters, the company has emphasized its TAG operating system (a cost- and efficiency-improvement program) and a shift toward capital-light, higher-margin Construction Solutions, including precast products. Recent results reflect that push: quarterly revenue rose roughly 26% year over year, and earnings per share (EPS) climbed more than 40%, while full-year core EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins expanded to approximately 14.5%.
Despite this improving profitability, the stock has lagged its steel peer group over the past year. Shares reached a 52-week high near the mid-$80s earlier in the year before retreating toward the mid-$60s in recent weeks, leaving the stock down modestly year to date. Analysts have cited execution risks from mill outages, weather effects, and scrap-cost volatility as factors tempering sentiment, even as buyback activity and a modest dividend continue to support the shareholder base.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
STLD operates a circular manufacturing model, producing lower-carbon steel primarily from recycled scrap, alongside a substantial metals recycling segment and a downstream steel fabrication platform. The company is also expanding into aluminum flat-rolled products through its Columbus, Mississippi mill and a satellite recycled aluminum slab center in Mexico, targeting the beverage can, automotive, industrial, and construction markets.
The stock has been a standout performer, advancing roughly 76% over the past year on the back of record steel shipments, sharply higher realized selling prices, and wider metal margins. Management guided third-quarter EPS between roughly $5.34 and $5.38, a meaningful step up from the prior quarter, supported by a fabrication backlog nearly 50% above prior-year levels. In recent weeks, however, shares have pulled back as near-term guidance came in below some analyst expectations, prompting a period of profit-taking even as the underlying steel-demand story remains constructive.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ primarily in scale and diversification. STLD is the larger enterprise, with a broader steel platform and a new aluminum growth avenue that extends its addressable market beyond steel. CMC is more focused, leaning on downstream construction solutions and international operations rather than a large-scale aluminum buildout.
On growth drivers, STLD is benefiting from record shipments, robust non-residential construction and data-center demand, and an aluminum ramp that management expects to turn into a meaningful contributor. CMC is driving profitability through margin expansion and efficiency gains rather than top-line scale. On valuation, CMC trades at a lower forward earnings multiple, reflecting more modest near-term growth expectations, while STLD commands a premium tied to its aluminum optionality. Both face cyclical steel-demand risk, scrap-cost swings, and trade-policy uncertainty, but STLD carries additional execution risk from its capital-intensive aluminum startup, which has posted operating losses during ramp-up.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor STLD in the current environment. The stock's stronger trailing momentum, record shipment levels, widening metal spreads, and a substantial fabrication backlog suggest more consistent near-term earnings visibility, even after a recent pullback. CMC offers a more attractive valuation and improving margins but currently lacks the same breadth of growth catalysts. This assessment reflects relative positioning and probabilistic signals rather than a definitive outcome, and it should be understood as an analytical comparison rather than a recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a Hold and STLD is a Hold.
CMC sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On October 02, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for CMC moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 40 of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CMC as a result. In 59 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CMC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where CMC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +0.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CMC advanced for three days, in 214 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
CMC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
CMC moved below its 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CMC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CMC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for CMC entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CMC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.586) is normal, around the industry mean (3.144). P/E Ratio (12.169) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.149). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.320) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.840) is also within normal values, averaging (5901.087).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
STLD's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STLD turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where STLD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STLD as a result. In 72 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
STLD moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STLD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +1.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STLD advanced for three days, in 263 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
STLD may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STLD declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator for STLD entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. STLD’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.731) is normal, around the industry mean (2.171). P/E Ratio (22.167) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.715). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.050) is also within normal values, averaging (0.339). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.693) is also within normal values, averaging (2.301).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
CMC | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 50 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 22 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (54) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as STLD (59) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (30) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (50) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (59) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (50) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (96) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 85% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 71% | 6 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 47% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while STLD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +0.72% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -2.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.59%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was -0.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jan 11, 2027.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Oct 19, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (-2.67% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (-0.07% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
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CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | -0.68% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | +1.92% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | +1.73% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | +1.17% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | +4.99% | ||
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STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | +1.92% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 88% Closely correlated | +1.73% | ||
| RS - STLD | 77% Closely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| TX - STLD | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.86% | ||
| GGB - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | +2.19% | ||
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