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CMC vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CMC and STLD operate in the steel and metals sector, with exposure to construction, automotive, and recycling markets.
- STLD has provided strong second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance, projecting meaningful sequential improvement in steel operations profitability.
- CMC reported fiscal third-quarter results in late June 2026 with adjusted earnings near consensus estimates and declared its 247th consecutive quarterly dividend.
- Recent market activity shows STLD trading near $235 while CMC trades near $66, reflecting differences in scale and valuation.
- Both companies have faced analyst target adjustments in recent weeks, with mixed sentiment on growth prospects amid broader industrial sector dynamics.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs in size, earnings momentum, and operational expansion initiatives between the two steel producers.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) are two established players in the North American steel industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance trends, and market positioning to assist investors and traders evaluating exposure to the metals sector. Professionals monitoring industrial cyclical stocks, earnings momentum, or relative value within basic materials may find the analysis relevant for portfolio construction or sector rotation decisions.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) engages in steel manufacturing, metals recycling, and fabrication operations serving construction, infrastructure, and industrial end markets. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in a range around $60–$67 following its fiscal third-quarter earnings release in late June 2026. Adjusted earnings per share came in near consensus levels, supported by core EBITDA gains in key segments. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.20 per share. Broader market activity has reflected moderating price targets from several analysts, contributing to tempered sentiment amid fluctuating steel demand indicators.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) operates integrated steel production, metals recycling, steel fabrication, and aluminum operations across North America. Recent market activity has centered on the company’s second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance released in mid-June, projecting diluted earnings per share of $3.51–$3.55, a sequential increase from the prior quarter. The stock has traded near $235 in recent sessions. Operational updates note progress on new cold mills and annealing lines, with earnings results scheduled for release after market close on July 20, 2026. Sentiment has benefited from the constructive profitability outlook in steel operations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both companies share core exposure to steel production and recycling, yet differ in scale and diversification. STLD maintains a larger operational footprint with additional aluminum capabilities and ongoing capacity expansions, supporting potentially stronger earnings momentum in the near term. CMC emphasizes a more focused recycling and fabrication model with a recent history of consistent dividend payments. Recent momentum favors STLD due to explicit earnings guidance, while CMC has navigated analyst target revisions. Risk factors include commodity price volatility and cyclical demand for both, with STLD’s larger size offering greater liquidity but potentially higher sensitivity to broad industrial trends. Market sentiment reflects these contrasts through differing valuation multiples and analyst commentary in recent weeks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as earnings guidance consistency, operational expansion progress, and relative price stability in recent market activity, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to STLD over CMC for trend-following or momentum-oriented strategies. This assessment rests on STLD’s forward-looking profitability signals and scale advantages, though outcomes remain subject to evolving macroeconomic and sector-specific variables.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a StrongBuy and STLD is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSTLD’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +3.82% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +4.93% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +3.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.41%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +2.62%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Oct 15, 2026.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+3.25% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+2.62% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CMC | STLD | CMC / STLD | |
| Capitalization | 7.63B | 35.6B | 21% |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 2.39B | 48% |
| Gain YTD | 0.497 | 46.598 | 1% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.03 | 22.42 | 58% |
| Revenue | 8.85B | 19B | 47% |
| Total Cash | 560M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.4B | 4.2B | 81% |
CMC | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 26 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (21) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as STLD (26) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (31) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (57) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (61) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (56) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (31) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMC (100) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew significantly faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 62% | 17 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 78% |
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STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | +2.72% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 83% Closely correlated | +2.66% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| RS - STLD | 67% Closely correlated | +3.15% | ||
| CLF - STLD | 52% Loosely correlated | +8.85% | ||
| IIIN - STLD | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.08% | ||
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