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CMC vs STLD
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both CMC and STLD operate in the steel and metals sector, capitalizing on infrastructure demand and potential trade tariffs in recent market activity.
- STLD has delivered superior year-to-date (YTD) returns of 23.93% versus CMC's 1.88%, reflecting stronger momentum.
- STLD's recent quarterly revenue rose 19.1% year-over-year, underscoring robust demand, while CMC announced a dividend increase amid improved relative strength.
- STLD trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.17 compared to CMC's 15.11, indicating differing valuations.
- Analysts rate both stocks positively, with average price targets suggesting upside potential for each.
- Tickeron's AI analysis favors STLD in the short term due to relative price strength.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) are key players in the steel production, recycling, and fabrication industries. This comparison evaluates their recent performance amid a steel sector buoyed by infrastructure spending, reshoring trends, and anticipated tariffs. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors focused on metals exposure will find value in understanding their relative positioning, financial metrics, and market sentiment shifts in the current environment.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) manufactures, recycles, and fabricates steel and metal products, operating segments in North America, Europe, and emerging businesses. It processes scrap metals and produces rebar, merchant bar, and structural steel for construction and infrastructure. In recent weeks, CMC shares have shown improved relative strength, rising toward its 52-week high of $84.87 from a low of $42.00, with a market cap around $7.5 billion. Key influences include a dividend increase highlighting earnings growth from precast acquisitions and a new board member addition, boosting sentiment. Year-to-date returns stand at 1.88%, with one-year gains at 61.51%, supported by sector tailwinds like higher steel margins.
STLD Overview and Recent Performance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is a leading steel producer and recycler, with operations in steel fabrication, metals recycling, and aluminum products. It supplies hot-rolled, coated steel, beams, and bars for automotive, construction, and manufacturing uses. Recent market activity has propelled STLD shares higher, with a 52-week range of $114.76 to $211.75 and a market cap of $30.3 billion. The company reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $5.2 billion, up 19.1% year-over-year, despite a slight earnings per share (EPS) miss, amid accelerating order activity and strong demand projections. YTD performance reaches 23.93%, outpacing the S&P 500, with one-year returns at 79.38%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both CMC and STLD share cyclical exposure to steel demand drivers like infrastructure and tariffs, but STLD offers broader diversification into aluminum and fabrication, supporting higher revenue scale. Growth catalysts favor STLD with recent revenue acceleration versus CMC's margin improvements. Momentum tilts to STLD, with weekly price gains of +10.22% outpacing CMC's +7.80%. Risk factors include commodity price volatility and trade policy shifts, though both maintain solid balance sheets—STLD with lower debt-to-equity at 49.08%. Market sentiment is positive, with analyst targets implying upside, but CMC's lower P/E suggests relative value.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors STLD over CMC based on superior short-term trend consistency, recent revenue strength, and accelerated order activity amid steel sector tailwinds. While CMC offers attractive valuation and stability, STLD's momentum and larger scale position it probabilistically better for near-term relative performance in the evolving market landscape.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a StrongBuy and STLD is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSTLD’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- STLD’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while STLD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- STLD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +4.87% price change this week, while STLD (@Steel) price change was +5.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +12.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +18.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +179.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +134.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jun 25, 2026.
STLD is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+12.27% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+179.67% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CMC | STLD | CMC / STLD | |
| Capitalization | 8.62B | 40.8B | 21% |
| EBITDA | 1B | 2.39B | 42% |
| Gain YTD | 12.971 | 67.386 | 19% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.40 | 30.31 | 57% |
| Revenue | 8.39B | 19B | 44% |
| Total Cash | 495M | 557M | 89% |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 4.2B | 80% |
CMC | STLD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 3 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CMC's Valuation (25) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as STLD (25) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to STLD’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (25) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's SMR Rating (56) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (66) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (41) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
STLD's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Steel industry is significantly better than the same rating for CMC (99) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that STLD’s stock grew significantly faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | STLD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 61% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 7 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 76% |
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CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | +0.01% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.25% | ||
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STLD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STLD has been closely correlated with NUE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STLD jumps, then NUE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STLD | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STLD | 100% | +1.15% | ||
| NUE - STLD | 79% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| CMC - STLD | 74% Closely correlated | +0.01% | ||
| RS - STLD | 66% Loosely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| TX - STLD | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.93% | ||
| MTUS - STLD | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
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