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NXPI vs TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- NXPI and TXN are both diversified analog and embedded semiconductor suppliers benefiting from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, but through different channels.
- TXN has shown stronger recent momentum, with year-to-date gains well above the broader semiconductor sector, driven by a surging data-center business.
- NXPI delivered a sharp re-rating in recent quarters on a "beat-and-raise" earnings cycle, anchored by automotive and industrial content growth.
- TXN carries a premium valuation tied to its data-center and industrial recovery, while NXPI trades at a lower multiple with a focus on edge AI and software-defined vehicles.
- Both companies are expanding shareholder returns as capital spending moderates, but their risk profiles differ on automotive exposure versus industrial cyclicality.
Introduction
Investors weighing semiconductor exposure often encounter two structurally similar yet strategically distinct names: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Texas Instruments (TXN). Both design and sell analog, embedded processing, and mixed-signal chips into automotive, industrial, and communications markets, and both have positioned themselves as indirect beneficiaries of AI-driven data-center expansion. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning to help traders and longer-term investors understand the trade-offs between a diversified analog manufacturing powerhouse and an automotive-centric processor specialist.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) is a Dutch-American chipmaker spun off from Philips, with a portfolio concentrated in automotive, industrial and Internet of Things (IoT), mobile, and communications infrastructure. In recent quarters, the company reported accelerating revenue growth, with first-quarter sales rising roughly 12% year over year and second-quarter revenue climbing around 19%, reflecting broad-based demand recovery and ramping design wins in software-defined vehicles and industrial processing.
Recent market activity has been characterized by a notable re-rating. Shares surged in the wake of a stronger-than-expected quarterly report and guidance, with management pointing to a content-led growth story rather than unit-volume expansion. A key emerging catalyst is the data-center "control plane" opportunity, where NXPI supplies power, cooling, and security solutions rather than competing with graphics processing unit (GPU) makers. Management has indicated data-center revenue could more than double in 2026, while a growing edge-AI processor pipeline adds another growth avenue. Sentiment has also been supported by analyst price-target increases, though risks remain around China automotive exposure and elevated leverage.
TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments (TXN) is a Dallas-based analog and embedded processing giant that emphasizes in-house manufacturing across 300-millimeter wafer fabs. The company has been one of the semiconductor sector's standout performers, with shares up sharply year to date and over the past year, outpacing many peers. Recent quarterly results showed revenue growth accelerating from roughly 19% in the first quarter to about 23% in the second quarter, led by industrial and data-center demand.
A defining feature of TXN's recent trajectory is its data-center exposure. Revenue from data-center end markets nearly doubled year over year in early 2026, driven by power-management and connectivity chips essential to AI infrastructure. The company also announced a roughly $7.5 billion agreement to acquire Silicon Labs, aiming to fill its new fabs with high-volume wireless IoT products. Meanwhile, capital expenditures are declining from recent peaks, which management expects to boost free cash flow (cash generated after operating and capital expenses) and support shareholder returns. Valuation has expanded accordingly, and questions about demand sustainability remain a key watch item.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies operate in analog and embedded semiconductors, their business models diverge meaningfully. TXN emphasizes vertical integration and massive scale, producing the vast majority of its wafers internally, which supports cost efficiency and supply resilience. NXPI follows a more asset-light, fab-lite approach, outsourcing more production to third-party foundries while concentrating its portfolio on automotive processing and secure connectivity.
Growth drivers also contrast. TXN's recent momentum has been powered by a rapid industrial recovery and explosive data-center demand for power management. NXPI's growth is anchored in content-per-vehicle expansion, software-defined vehicle adoption, and an emerging data-center control-plane and edge-AI opportunity. On risk factors, NXPI carries higher financial leverage and greater concentration in automotive and China, while TXN faces execution questions around its large fab buildout and newly announced acquisition.
From a market-sentiment and valuation standpoint, TXN trades at a richer forward multiple, reflecting investor enthusiasm for its data-center and free-cash-flow story. NXPI trades at a lower multiple, with a PEG ratio (price-to-earnings relative to growth) below 1 in some measures, suggesting the market is pricing in slower or less certain growth. Momentum currently favors TXN, while valuation-oriented investors may find NXPI's setup comparatively attractive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TXN in the current environment. Its sustained uptrend, accelerating revenue growth, and expanding data-center franchise provide a stronger trend profile, while its improving free-cash-flow trajectory and moderating capital spending add fundamental support. That said, NXPI presents a more value-oriented setup with a re-rating catalyst in its data-center and edge-AI initiatives. The relative positioning suggests TXN may hold the edge on momentum and stability, while NXPI offers greater potential for multiple expansion if its newer growth programs continue to convert. This assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current conditions rather than a definitive prediction.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NXPI is a Hold and TXN is a Hold.
NXPI sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
NXPI saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 09, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 50 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NXPI as a result. In 72 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The 10-day moving average for NXPI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The 50-day moving average for NXPI moved below the 200-day moving average on September 16, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NXPI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
NXPI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 67 cases where NXPI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
NXPI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NXPI advanced for three days, in 191 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 133 of 217 cases where NXPI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NXPI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.256) is normal, around the industry mean (6.403). P/E Ratio (20.153) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.203). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.470) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.017) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.219) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NXPI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock worse than average.
TXN's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TXN moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 21 of the 27 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TXN as a result. In 68 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TXN turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TXN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TXN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
TXN moved above its 50-day moving average on September 25, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TXN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +1.17% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TXN advanced for three days, in 175 of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 129 of 239 cases where TXN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TXN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TXN's P/B Ratio (14.088) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.418). P/E Ratio (42.024) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.327). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.991) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.255) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
NXPI | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 88 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 29 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 17 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (56) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (78). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to TXN’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NXPI (77). This means that TXN’s stock grew somewhat faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's SMR Rating (29) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (35). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (55). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NXPI (68). This means that TXN’s stock grew somewhat faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| NXPI | TXN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 15 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 2 days ago 54% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NXPI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while TXN’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- NXPI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NXPI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TXN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
NXPI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +4.98% price change this week, while TXN (@Semiconductors) price change was -3.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -7.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-7.26% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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TXN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TXN has been closely correlated with ADI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TXN jumps, then ADI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TXN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 100% | +0.59% | ||
| ADI - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | +0.68% | ||
| MCHPP - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | +2.08% | ||
| MCHP - TXN | 80% Closely correlated | +1.92% | ||
| ON - TXN | 75% Closely correlated | +3.42% | ||
| NXPI - TXN | 71% Closely correlated | +3.22% | ||
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