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ONB vs UMBF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Old National Bancorp (ONB) vs. UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ONB and UMBF are mid-cap regional banks with market capitalizations around $9.3–9.5 billion, offering stability in a volatile sector.
- ONB reported Q1 2026 EPS (earnings per share) of $0.59–$0.61, slightly beating estimates, with strong loan growth guidance of 4–6% for the year.
- UMBF delivered robust Q1 2026 results with EPS of $3.41, net interest income (NII) up significantly, and expanded its share buyback program.
- YTD performance shows modest gains for both, with UMBF at +9.37% and ONB at +8.15%, amid stabilizing interest rates.
- UMBF edges out with higher ROE (return on equity) of 12.59% versus ONB's 10.08%, indicating better profitability efficiency.
- Low betas (0.76 for UMBF, 0.83 for ONB) highlight defensive positioning for risk-averse investors.
Introduction
In the competitive regional banking sector, ONB and UMBF stand out as mid-cap players navigating interest rate shifts and economic uncertainties. This comparison analyzes their recent performance, financial metrics, and market positioning to aid traders seeking relative value and investors focused on dividend stability or growth potential. With both stocks exhibiting resilience in recent market activity, understanding their contrasts in profitability, loan growth, and sentiment can inform portfolio decisions amid broader sector trends like deposit competition and regulatory pressures.
ONB Overview and Recent Performance
Old National Bancorp (ONB) operates as a regional bank primarily serving the Midwest with commercial, retail, and wealth management services. In recent quarterly results, the company posted EPS of $0.59–$0.61, surpassing analyst expectations slightly while guiding for 4–6% loan growth in 2026. Stock price has traded in the mid-$20s, reflecting a YTD gain of 8.15% and a 52-week range of $19.39–$26.17. Sentiment has been supported by solid deposit growth and share buybacks, though revenue fell short of estimates, tempering gains amid persistent net interest margin (NIM) pressures from higher funding costs. Lower beta underscores its relative stability.
UMBF Overview and Recent Performance
UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF) provides banking, asset servicing, and wealth management across multiple regions, with a focus on institutional clients. Recent quarterly earnings highlighted EPS of $3.41, well above forecasts, alongside NII of $534.4 million and a NIM expansion to 3.38%. The stock has advanced to around $125, with YTD returns of 9.37% within a 52-week span of $90.96–$136.11. Positive momentum stems from revenue growth exceeding 30% year-over-year, dividend hikes, and a 2 million share buyback authorization, boosting investor confidence despite sector-wide challenges like credit quality monitoring.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both ONB and UMBF center on regional banking but differ in scope: ONB emphasizes Midwest commercial lending, while UMBF diversifies into asset servicing for stronger fee income. Growth drivers include ONB’s projected loan expansion versus UMBF’s NII surge from deposit repricing. Recent momentum favors UMBF with superior earnings beats, though ONB offers a higher dividend yield (2.42% vs. 1.37%). Risk profiles are comparable with low betas, but UMBF’s higher ROE signals better capital efficiency. Market sentiment tilts toward UMBF post-earnings, amid shared exposures to interest rate sensitivity and credit cycles.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor UMBF over ONB, driven by stronger recent earnings momentum, expanded NIM, and elevated ROE, positioning it better for sustained trends in a normalizing rate environment. While ONB shows loan growth potential, UMBF’s catalysts like buybacks enhance near-term relative stability and upside probability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ONB is a Buy and UMBF is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ONB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUMBF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ONB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UMBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ONB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UMBF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ONB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- UMBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
ONB (@Regional Banks) experienced а 0.00% price change this week, while UMBF (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.98%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
ONB is expected to report earnings on Jul 28, 2026.
UMBF is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.44% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
| ONB | UMBF | ONB / UMBF | |
| Capitalization | 10B | 10.9B | 92% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 17.431 | 26.856 | 65% |
| P/E Ratio | 12.89 | 11.98 | 108% |
| Revenue | 2.74B | 2.61B | 105% |
| Total Cash | 537M | 736M | 73% |
| Total Debt | 7.36B | 256M | 2,874% |
ONB | UMBF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 46 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 16 | 17 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONB's Valuation (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UMBF (70). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to UMBF’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UMBF (46). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to UMBF’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's SMR Rating (16) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UMBF (17). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to UMBF’s over the last 12 months.
UMBF's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ONB (45). This means that UMBF’s stock grew similarly to ONB’s over the last 12 months.
ONB's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as UMBF (58). This means that ONB’s stock grew similarly to UMBF’s over the last 12 months.
| ONB | UMBF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 4 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 62% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 4 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 59% | 10 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 62% |
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ONB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONB has been closely correlated with ASB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONB jumps, then ASB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONB | 100% | N/A | ||
| ASB - ONB | 91% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| FNB - ONB | 90% Closely correlated | -2.06% | ||
| ZION - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| FULT - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| CATY - ONB | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
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UMBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UMBF has been closely correlated with UBSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UMBF jumps, then UBSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UMBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBF | 100% | N/A | ||
| UBSI - UMBF | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| UCB - UMBF | 88% Closely correlated | -1.55% | ||
| ONB - UMBF | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| CATY - UMBF | 86% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| ASB - UMBF | 86% Closely correlated | -1.86% | ||
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