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OR vs PAAS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Osisko Gold Royalties (OR) vs. Pan American Silver (PAAS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: OR is a precious-metals royalty and streaming company that collects a share of others' output, while PAAS is a leading silver and gold mining producer.
- Margin profile contrasts sharply: OR's ~97% cash margin reflects an asset-light structure, whereas PAAS carries the operating and capital costs of running mines.
- Recent momentum differs: PAAS posted record cash flow and raised shareholder returns, while OR shares pulled back from 52-week highs despite record revenue.
- Metal-price sensitivity: both stocks track gold and silver prices closely, but PAAS has more direct leverage to silver's swings.
- Balance-sheet stance: PAAS holds a record cash position, while OR has re-drawn debt to fund royalty acquisitions.
- Scale gap: PAAS is roughly three times OR's market capitalization, reflecting its larger production base.
Introduction
Precious-metals equities have been among the market's most discussed names in recent quarters, as gold and silver prices surged to record highs before pulling back. Against that backdrop, investors often weigh two very different ways to gain exposure to the sector: royalty companies that earn a cut of others' production, and miners that produce metal themselves. This stock comparison examines OR (Osisko Gold Royalties, now known as OR Royalties Inc.) and PAAS (Pan American Silver) to clarify how their relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles differ. The comparison is relevant to both growth-oriented traders and income-focused investors seeking diversified precious-metals exposure.
OR Overview and Recent Performance
OR is a Montreal-based precious-metals royalty and streaming company that holds more than 195 royalties, streams, and similar interests, concentrated in Tier-1 mining jurisdictions in Canada, the United States, and Australia. Its cornerstone asset is a 3% to 5% net smelter return (NSR) royalty on Agnico Eagle's Canadian Malartic complex, one of the world's largest gold mines. Because it bears almost no production cost, the company converts the vast majority of revenue into cash, reporting a cash margin near 97%.
In recent market activity, OR's revenue reached records on the back of elevated gold prices even as attributable gold-equivalent ounces stayed roughly flat year over year. Shares, however, pulled back from their 52-week high of about $48 to the mid-$30s as gold corrected from its early-2026 peak. Sentiment has also been shaped by a rock-mass movement at Canadian Malartic's Barnat pit, which reduced near-term ounces in Agnico's mine plan, and by the company drawing on its credit facility to fund royalty acquisitions at historically high metal prices. The stock offers a modest dividend yield and continues buybacks, but its growth narrative now hinges on converting new royalties into organic ounce growth.
PAAS Overview and Recent Performance
PAAS is a Vancouver-based silver and gold mining company and one of the world's largest primary silver producers, with operations across the Americas. Unlike a royalty company, it owns and operates mines, which means it bears full operating and capital costs but also captures the upside of production growth directly. Its portfolio is anchored by assets such as La Colorada in Mexico and the Juanicipio joint venture.
Recent quarters have been defined by strong financial results. PAAS generated record free cash flow (cash remaining after operating and capital expenses) of roughly $1.15 billion in 2025 and reported a record cash and short-term investment balance exceeding $1.8 billion in early 2026. Management introduced a shareholder-return framework targeting 35% to 40% of annual free cash flow, implying up to $1 billion in dividends and buybacks for 2026, and raised the quarterly dividend. Silver production is guided to grow about 14% at the midpoint in 2026. Despite this, the stock has pulled back from earlier highs as silver prices softened, and the company is advancing the capital-intensive La Colorada skarn project, which introduces execution risk.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is structural. OR operates an asset-light royalty model with minimal costs and a very high cash margin, but its growth depends largely on the metal price and on acquiring new royalties. PAAS is a full-scale miner whose profitability is tied to production volumes, grades, and all-in sustaining costs (AISC), a mining cost metric covering operating and sustaining capital expenses.
On growth drivers, PAAS benefits from a tangible production ramp and a large project pipeline, whereas OR's upside is driven by portfolio expansion and higher realized metal prices. In terms of recent momentum, PAAS has posted record cash generation and an expanded capital-return program, while OR has delivered record revenue but faced a sharp share-price pullback tied to both gold's correction and a reduced near-term outlook at its flagship asset. Risk profiles also diverge: OR carries lower operating risk but notable concentration in Canadian Malartic, while PAAS faces operational and project-execution risk, including the long-suspended Escobal mine and the sizeable La Colorada skarn development.
On valuation and sentiment, PAAS trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings multiple relative to its own earnings growth, while OR's premium reflects its royalty-model scarcity value. Both remain highly correlated to precious-metals prices, making silver's recent softness a shared headwind.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely view PAAS as the more consistent near-term candidate, given its record free cash flow, rising production guidance, and an explicit shareholder-return framework that provides defined catalysts. OR retains a high-quality, low-cost business model, but its recent debt-funded acquisitions at elevated metal prices and the near-term reduction at Canadian Malartic introduce more uncertainty into the growth trajectory. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: a system weighting cash-flow stability, catalysts, and relative positioning would lean toward PAAS, while one prioritizing margin quality and asset-light exposure might still favor OR. Market positioning between the two ultimately hinges on each investor's view of precious-metals prices and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is OR is a Hold and PAAS is a Hold.
OR in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026
The 10-day moving average for OR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on OR as a result. In 55 of 75 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OR turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
OR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Aroon Indicator for OR entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +6.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OR advanced for three days, in 250 of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
OR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 40 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.146) is normal, around the industry mean (1.844). P/E Ratio (21.755) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.573). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.300) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.008) settles around the average of (0.359) among similar stocks. OR's P/S Ratio (18.484) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PAAS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026
PAAS moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 51 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for PAAS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PAAS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for PAAS entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +1.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PAAS advanced for three days, in 242 of 299 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
PAAS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.262) is normal, around the industry mean (1.844). P/E Ratio (11.879) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.573). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.359) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.533) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PAAS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
OR | PAAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 93 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 40 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PAAS's Valuation (46) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OR (93) in the null industry. This means that PAAS’s stock grew somewhat faster than OR’s over the last 12 months.
OR's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (59) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that OR’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's SMR Rating (43) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OR (46) in the null industry. This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to OR’s over the last 12 months.
OR's Price Growth Rating (59) in the null industry is in the same range as PAAS (63) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that OR’s stock grew similarly to PAAS’s over the last 12 months.
PAAS's P/E Growth Rating (89) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as OR (95) in the null industry. This means that PAAS’s stock grew similarly to OR’s over the last 12 months.
| OR | PAAS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 72% | 6 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
OR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while PAAS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- OR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- PAAS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
OR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PAAS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- OR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- PAAS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
OR (@Precious Metals) experienced а -7.59% price change this week, while PAAS (@Precious Metals) price change was -9.18% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -7.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -18.09%, and the average quarterly price growth was -16.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
OR is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
PAAS is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-7.86% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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