GET DAILY SIGNALSNewmont (NEM) Delivers Q3 Earnings Beat as Gold Prices Climb Higher
Key Takeaways
- Newmont reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.20, exceeding the consensus analyst estimate of roughly $2.05.
- Revenue reached $6.36 billion, above the $6.24 billion Wall Street consensus.
- Net income attributable to stockholders climbed to $2.47 billion, up from $1.83 billion a year earlier.
- Attributable gold production slipped to 1.30 million ounces, down from 1.42 million ounces in the prior-year quarter.
- The average realized gold price rose to $4,317 per ounce, while gold by-product all-in sustaining costs (AISC) fell 10% to $1,454 per ounce.
- Newmont reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance and generated roughly $1.9 billion in free cash flow during the quarter.
Why These Results Stand Out in Today’s Gold Environment
As the world’s largest gold producer, NEM sits at the center of one of the market’s most closely watched commodity stories. Gold prices have climbed sharply over the past year, driven by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar debate, and persistent inflation concerns. That environment has a direct and outsized impact on Newmont’s profitability, making its quarterly results a key barometer for the broader precious metals sector. Investors also track Newmont’s cost discipline, production reliability, and capital-return program, since these factors determine how much of higher gold prices actually reaches the bottom line. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. The third quarter’s results offered a clear look at how well the company is converting elevated metal prices into earnings while managing softer output at several key mines.
Breaking Down the Reported Figures
Newmont reported third quarter 2026 results that beat expectations, even as gold production declined year over year. Adjusted net income came in at $2.30 billion, or $2.20 per diluted share, above the consensus estimate of about $2.05 per share compiled by LSEG. Revenue of $6.36 billion also topped the $6.24 billion consensus forecast. Net income attributable to Newmont stockholders reached $2.47 billion, or $2.35 per share, compared with $1.83 billion in the same period last year.
The earnings strength was driven primarily by higher realized metal prices. Newmont’s average realized gold price was $4,317 per ounce, well above the $3,539 per ounce recorded a year earlier. This price benefit more than offset lower volumes: attributable gold production fell to 1.30 million ounces from 1.42 million ounces, reflecting planned maintenance at Lihir and Boddington and mine-plan sequencing at Yanacocha. On the cost side, gold by-product AISC declined 10% to $1,454 per ounce. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.95 billion, up from $3.30 billion a year earlier.
Free cash flow was approximately $1.9 billion, and Newmont ended the quarter with $8.8 billion in cash and a net cash position of $3.2 billion. The company kept its full-year 2026 guidance unchanged and highlighted shareholder returns of $1.9 billion through dividends and buybacks during the period.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Newmont’s stock showed a modestly positive response following the release. Shares closed at $114.02 on the day of the announcement and were trading higher in after-hours activity, rising about 1.3% as investors absorbed the earnings and revenue beats. The stock has gained more than 20% over the trailing three months, reflecting the broader rally in gold and renewed investor interest in precious metals producers.
Sentiment was tempered by the decline in attributable gold production, which fell short of the prior-year level even as financial results improved. While higher metal prices drove profitability, some investors focused on the operational soft spots at Lihir, Boddington, and Yanacocha, where maintenance and sequencing reduced output. The combination of a beat on the bottom line and softer volumes left the market weighing strong cash generation against questions about whether production can re-accelerate in the quarters ahead.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Newmont reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance, signaling confidence that the company remains on track despite the third quarter’s production dip. Management continues to advance its development pipeline, including an update on the Red Chris Block Cave project, with about $878 million of the planned $1.4 billion in 2026 development capital already invested through the third quarter.
Investors should watch several factors in the coming months. First, gold prices remain the dominant driver of revenue and margins, so any sustained move in the metal will directly shape results. Second, production recovery at Lihir and Boddington will be important, since continued maintenance-related softness could pressure volumes even as prices stay elevated.
Cost trends also deserve attention. The decline in gold by-product AISC to $1,454 per ounce was a positive sign, but rising diesel prices and other inflationary inputs could test that momentum. Finally, the company’s capital-return program remains a focal point, with $2.8 billion remaining under its current share-repurchase authorization and a planned $1.95 billion payment to Barrick under the amended Nevada Gold Mines agreement expected in the fourth quarter. These cash-flow priorities will influence how Newmont balances shareholder returns against balance-sheet strength and reinvestment in future growth. From what I see, the company’s balance sheet strength gives it flexibility here.
Exploring AI Tools in My Research Process
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener particularly useful when comparing gold miners like Newmont to peers across the materials sector. The tool lets me apply filters for technical patterns, fundamentals, and performance metrics to quickly surface comparable names and emerging signals. It helps streamline the process of spotting how individual stocks fit into broader industry trends without manual screening.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NEM in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NEM as a result. In 61 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 46 of 60 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.503) is normal, around the industry mean (2.031). P/E Ratio (14.721) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.536). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.341) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
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General Information
a company which explores and mines for gold and silver
Industry PreciousMetals
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