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PBR vs YPF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Petrobras (PBR) vs. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two distinct energy profiles: PBR is a diversified, dividend-paying integrated producer, while YPF is a shale-led turnaround centered on Argentina's Vaca Muerta formation.
- Momentum favors Petrobras: PBR has delivered exceptional relative performance, with its shares roughly doubling in 2026 amid record output and successive market-value milestones.
- YPF is executing a transformation: YPF posted record quarterly earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), falling leverage, and rising shale output, but carries higher execution and country risk.
- Valuation contrast is sharp: PBR trades at a low single-digit price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio with a roughly 5% dividend yield, while YPF trades at a materially higher multiple and pays no dividend.
- Risk profiles differ: Petrobras faces Brazilian political and governance considerations; YPF faces Argentina macro volatility, capital intensity, and infrastructure execution.
Introduction
Investors evaluating Latin American energy equities frequently weigh two of the region's most closely watched names: Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras (PBR), Brazil's state-controlled integrated oil giant, and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), Argentina's largest energy company. Both have benefited from firm crude prices and structural production growth, yet they represent very different investment propositions in terms of market positioning, valuation, and risk. This stock comparison is most relevant to traders and investors seeking exposure to Latin American energy, dividend income, or a higher-growth shale story with elevated country risk. Understanding how their relative performance and fundamentals diverge can help clarify which profile better suits a given portfolio objective.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
Petrobras (PBR) is a Brazilian government-controlled, integrated energy company focused on offshore exploration and production, refining, and distribution. In recent market activity, the stock has shown sustained upward momentum, with preferred and ordinary shares roughly doubling in 2026 and the company surpassing R$800 billion in market value on Brazil's B3 exchange for the first time. Sentiment has been supported by record refining utilization, oil production of approximately 2.7 million barrels per day, and a series of catalysts including an ultra-deepwater discovery in the Foz do Amazonas basin, a significant gas discovery offshore Colombia, and a roughly US$859 million equalization settlement in the Santos Basin. Analysts have raised price targets in recent weeks, reflecting improved fundamentals and strong cash generation that underpins a notable dividend yield. Its low beta relative to the broader market has also made it attractive to momentum- and value-oriented investors alike.
YPF Overview and Recent Performance
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) is Argentina's largest integrated energy company, increasingly focused on the Vaca Muerta shale formation as it pivots away from mature conventional assets. Recent market activity has reflected strong operational execution: the company reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of roughly US$2.8 billion, net income of about US$1.2 billion, and free cash flow of approximately US$824 million. Shale oil production reached roughly 213,000 barrels per day, or about 80% of total oil output, while lifting costs fell sharply and net leverage declined to around 1.1x — its lowest level in more than a decade. Management raised full-year EBITDA guidance and continues to advance export infrastructure, including the VMOS (Vaca Muerta Oil Sur) pipeline and a proposed Argentina LNG (liquefied natural gas) project. These gains arrive alongside execution and financing risks tied to infrastructure delivery and Argentina's macroeconomic environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge sharply across several dimensions. Petrobras (PBR) operates a diversified, government-controlled model spanning upstream production, refining, and distribution, with a proven presalt resource base and a low production breakeven. YPF (YPF) is pursuing a more concentrated growth strategy, deliberately shedding conventional assets to become a higher-margin, export-oriented shale producer. On valuation, Petrobras trades at a single-digit P/E with a meaningful dividend yield, while YPF commands a higher multiple reflecting its growth trajectory and pays no dividend. Risk factors also differ: Petrobras is exposed to Brazilian political and fuel-pricing dynamics, whereas YPF faces Argentina's country risk, heavy capital expenditures (CapEx), and dependence on timely completion of export infrastructure such as VMOS and the LNG project. In short, Petrobras offers income and scale, while YPF offers higher-growth, higher-risk exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward PBR over YPF. Petrobras has exhibited a more consistent and sustained uptrend, with price action holding firmly above longer-term moving averages and stronger relative performance over recent months. Its lower beta, robust cash flow, and dividend support provide a comparatively stable profile, while a steady stream of operational catalysts reinforces the trend. YPF's fundamentals are improving rapidly, but its case depends more heavily on execution milestones and Argentina-specific conditions, which introduces greater variability. Accordingly, the AI would likely favor Petrobras on a stability-adjusted basis, while acknowledging that YPF may appeal to traders prioritizing growth potential and willing to accept higher volatility. This assessment is probabilistic and reflects current observable conditions rather than a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBR is a Buy and YPF is a Hold.
PBR in +2.05% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on October 14, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PBR advanced for three days, in 285 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PBR as a result. In 54 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 213 of 285 cases where PBR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 15 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBR turned negative on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
PBR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 22 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.815) is normal, around the industry mean (1.687). P/E Ratio (6.609) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.303). PBR's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.913) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.072) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.293) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
YPF's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for YPF entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 162 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 124 of the 162 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for YPF turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
YPF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for YPF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YPF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where YPF's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 57 of 60 cases where YPF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on YPF as a result. In 76 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
Following a +4.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where YPF advanced for three days, in 291 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YPF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.586) is normal, around the industry mean (1.687). YPF has a moderately high P/E Ratio (26.815) as compared to the industry average of (11.303). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
PBR | YPF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 22 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 49 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBR's Valuation (67) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (78). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (19). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (33) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (81). This means that PBR’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (42). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as PBR (22). This means that YPF’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
| PBR | YPF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 89% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 80% | 13 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBR’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while YPF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- YPF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YPF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- YPF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
PBR (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +0.62% price change this week, while YPF (@Integrated Oil) price change was -2.73% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +0.36%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBR is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
YPF is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+0.36% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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PBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBR has been closely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBR jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
YPF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YPF has been closely correlated with TGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if YPF jumps, then TGS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To YPF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YPF | 100% | +3.07% | ||
| TGS - YPF | 78% Closely correlated | +4.93% | ||
| EC - YPF | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.64% | ||
| CRGY - YPF | 47% Loosely correlated | +3.75% | ||
| EQNR - YPF | 47% Loosely correlated | +5.17% | ||
| CVE - YPF | 47% Loosely correlated | +2.72% | ||
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