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PBR vs YPF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) vs. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBR reported record quarterly oil and gas production in Q2 2026, with own output rising 14% year-over-year to 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
- YPF has advanced its portfolio optimization through recent asset sales in Mendoza and continued focus on shale operations, while preparing for its Q2 2026 earnings release.
- Both companies operate in the energy sector but differ in geographic exposure, with PBR benefiting from Brazilian offshore growth and YPF executing debt management and liquidity-enhancing measures such as a local stock split.
- Recent market activity shows YPF with stronger year-to-date gains compared to broader sector peers, while PBR highlights production momentum and upcoming earnings expectations.
- Risk factors include commodity price volatility for both, alongside country-specific considerations such as regulatory and economic conditions in Brazil and Argentina.
- Sector sentiment remains tied to global oil dynamics, with both stocks reflecting operational execution amid fluctuating energy markets in recent weeks.
Introduction
Investors and traders often compare energy stocks like PBR and YPF to assess relative value within the oil and gas industry. These two companies represent major players in South American energy production, offering exposure to upstream and downstream operations in distinct national markets. This comparison appeals to those evaluating geographic diversification, operational trends, and recent performance differentials in a sector influenced by commodity prices and regional developments. Market participants seeking balanced insights into stability, growth drivers, and positioning may find the analysis useful for portfolio considerations.
PBR Overview and Recent Performance
PBR, or Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras, is Brazil’s state-controlled integrated energy company focused on exploration, production, refining, and distribution. In recent market activity, the company highlighted strong operational results, including record own oil and gas production that reached 3.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, marking a 14% increase over the prior year. A new gas discovery in Colombia added to exploration momentum. Broader sentiment has been supported by production growth and expectations around earnings, with analysts noting potential for significant year-over-year profit expansion. Price behavior in recent weeks has reflected these operational updates alongside global oil market movements.
YPF Overview and Recent Performance
YPF, or YPF Sociedad Anónima, is Argentina’s leading integrated oil and gas company engaged in exploration, production, refining, and marketing, with increasing emphasis on shale resources. Recent developments include portfolio optimization through sales of conventional assets in Mendoza, generating proceeds around $200 million, alongside bond redemptions and liability management actions. The company implemented a 1-for-10 stock split on its local shares to enhance liquidity. Year-to-date performance has shown notable gains, though recent weeks featured typical volatility tied to earnings anticipation ahead of the Q2 2026 report. Sentiment reflects progress on shale initiatives and deleveraging efforts amid Argentine economic conditions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
PBR and YPF share upstream energy exposure but diverge in scale, geography, and recent catalysts. PBR benefits from large-scale offshore production growth in Brazil, providing greater output stability, while YPF pursues shale expansion and conventional asset divestitures in Argentina to streamline operations. Momentum contrasts include PBR’s emphasis on record production figures versus YPF’s focus on financial restructuring and liquidity measures such as the local stock split. Risk profiles differ due to Brazil’s regulatory environment compared to Argentina’s economic variables. Market sentiment for both remains linked to oil prices, yet PBR often reflects broader commodity rallies, whereas YPF incorporates local market dynamics. Trade-offs center on PBR’s production scale versus YPF’s agility in portfolio adjustments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency in production metrics, operational stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to PBR. Strong recent output growth and earnings expectations provide clearer near-term visibility compared to YPF’s asset optimization phase ahead of its earnings release. This assessment reflects data-driven patterns rather than guarantees, with both stocks subject to energy sector variables.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBR is a Hold and YPF is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileYPF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- YPF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YPF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- YPF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PBR (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -0.45% price change this week, while YPF (@Integrated Oil) price change was +1.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was +4.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBR is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
YPF is expected to report earnings on Nov 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (+4.31% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| PBR | YPF | PBR / YPF | |
| Capitalization | 111B | 19.6B | 566% |
| EBITDA | 250B | 5.6B | 4,467% |
| Gain YTD | 56.933 | 38.413 | 148% |
| P/E Ratio | 4.52 | 1.29 | 350% |
| Revenue | 489B | 18.6B | 2,629% |
| Total Cash | 47.6B | 1.69B | 2,813% |
| Total Debt | 372B | 10.8B | 3,444% |
PBR | YPF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 77 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 68 Overvalued | 18 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 15 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 39 | 93 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
YPF's Valuation (18) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBR (68). This means that YPF’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBR’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (23). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's SMR Rating (39) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (93). This means that PBR’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as PBR (47). This means that YPF’s stock grew similarly to PBR’s over the last 12 months.
PBR's P/E Growth Rating (72) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (100). This means that PBR’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
| PBR | YPF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 84% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 5 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 86% |
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PBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBR has been loosely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PBR jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBR | 100% | -0.06% | ||
| BP - PBR | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.52% | ||
| SHEL - PBR | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| CVE - PBR | 62% Loosely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| SU - PBR | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| EQNR - PBR | 61% Loosely correlated | +1.54% | ||
More | ||||
YPF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YPF has been closely correlated with TGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if YPF jumps, then TGS could also see price increases.