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TGS vs YPF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) vs. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- TGS and YPF are both Argentine energy companies, but they operate in different links of the value chain: TGS is a natural gas transporter and liquids processor, while YPF is an integrated oil and gas producer and refiner.
- YPF is far larger, with a market capitalization near $15 billion and a diversified, integrated model spanning upstream production, refining, and downstream distribution.
- TGS carries a net cash position and benefits from regulated, inflation-indexed tariffs, which supports relatively stable cash flows.
- Both companies are heavily exposed to Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale formation and to peso-related and macroeconomic volatility.
- Recent momentum has favored YPF, which has rallied on shale production growth, cost reductions, and international LNG (liquefied natural gas) project interest.
Introduction
Argentina's energy sector has drawn renewed investor attention as Vaca Muerta drives a structural shift toward unconventional oil and gas output. This stock comparison examines two distinct ways to gain exposure to that theme: TGS, the country's leading natural gas transporter, and YPF, its largest integrated energy company. While both names trade as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs, securities representing foreign shares on U.S. exchanges) and share exposure to Argentine economic policy, their business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. Investors comparing these stocks will likely be weighing stable, infrastructure-style cash flows against higher-beta exposure to crude oil prices and shale-driven production growth.
TGS Overview and Recent Performance
TGS, or Transportadora de Gas del Sur, is Argentina's dominant natural gas transportation company, moving roughly 60% of the country's gas through thousands of miles of pipeline. Its operations also include natural gas liquids (NGL, or liquids extracted from raw gas) processing and marketing, as well as midstream conditioning and gathering services at Vaca Muerta. In recent weeks and months, the company's performance has been shaped by a recovery from a March 2025 flooding event at its Cerri complex, a shift to monthly inflation-indexed tariff adjustments, and progress on the roughly $780 million Perito Moreno pipeline expansion, which TGS won as the sole bidder. Full-year 2025 revenue rose about 7% to approximately ARS 1.72 trillion, though net income declined versus the prior year partly on non-recurring items. A notable strength is TGS's balance sheet: it reports a net cash (negative net debt) position, giving it flexibility to fund large capital programs.
YPF Overview and Recent Performance
YPF, or YPF Sociedad Anónima, is Argentina's flagship integrated energy company, operating across exploration and production, refining, and downstream fuel distribution, with the Argentine state holding a minority stake. Its recent market activity has centered on accelerating Vaca Muerta shale oil output, which reached roughly 204,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, above the company's own target. YPF delivered a record adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of about $5 billion for 2025, its highest in a decade, while cutting lifting costs by about 44% year over year. Reported net income, however, swung to a loss of roughly $826 million for the year, largely due to an extraordinary tax charge tied to Argentina's fiscal normalization plan. Investor sentiment has also been lifted by potential international participation in YPF's LNG export ambitions, including reported discussions with Abu Dhabi-based XRG.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks lies in their business models. TGS operates a regulated, toll-road-style transportation business with tariffs indexed to inflation, giving it relatively predictable revenue but limiting upside to volumes and capacity expansions. YPF, by contrast, is a commodity-price-sensitive integrated producer whose earnings move with Brent crude and refined product margins, creating higher volatility but also greater torque to rising oil prices.
On growth drivers, YPF is actively converting its production base toward shale, with unconventional output now the dominant share of total production and a roadmap toward roughly 250,000 barrels per day by late 2026. TGS growth is tied to infrastructure build-out, including the Perito Moreno expansion and a potential multi-billion-dollar NGL processing project, which could reshape its business scale over the next decade.
Risk factors also differ. Both face Argentine currency, inflation, and policy risk, but TGS carries virtually no net debt, while YPF manages a larger debt load with significant near-term maturities. In terms of market sentiment, YPF has shown stronger recent relative performance, supported by operational momentum and export-driven catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward YPF in the current environment, reflecting its clearer near-term catalysts, improving cost structure, and stronger recent momentum in both price and fundamental trend. The combination of record EBITDA, accelerating shale output, and tangible international LNG interest provides a more consistent directional signal than TGS, whose story currently depends on multi-year infrastructure projects still in earlier stages. That said, TGS offers a more defensive profile with its net cash position and regulated revenues, which could appeal in risk-off conditions. Any AI-generated preference is probabilistic rather than definitive and should be weighed alongside each investor's own objectives.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is TGS is a StrongBuy and YPF is a Buy.
TGS in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 30, 2026
TGS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 32 cases where TGS's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.01% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TGS advanced for three days, in 263 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TGS as a result. In 69 of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TGS turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 43 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TGS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator for TGS entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TGS's P/B Ratio (0.001) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.711). TGS has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (11.524). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.050) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). TGS's Dividend Yield (0.166) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.047). P/S Ratio (3.584) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 28, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TGS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
YPF's RSI Indicator dives into oversold zone
The RSI Oscillator for YPF moved into overbought territory on November 02, 2026. Be on the watch for a price drop or consolidation in the future -- when this happens, think about selling the stock or exploring put options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +4.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where YPF advanced for three days, in 291 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
YPF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on YPF as a result. In 60 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for YPF turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
YPF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for YPF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YPF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for YPF entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 28, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YPF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.373) is normal, around the industry mean (1.711). YPF has a moderately high P/E Ratio (23.201) as compared to the industry average of (11.524). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.047) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
TGS | YPF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 74 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TGS's Valuation (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is significantly better than the same rating for YPF (78) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TGS’s stock grew significantly faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as TGS (31) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that YPF’s stock grew similarly to TGS’s over the last 12 months.
TGS's SMR Rating (45) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (81) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that TGS’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as TGS (74) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that YPF’s stock grew similarly to TGS’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for TGS (97) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry. This means that YPF’s stock grew significantly faster than TGS’s over the last 12 months.
| TGS | YPF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 83% | 23 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
TGS’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while YPF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- TGS’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- YPF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
TGS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YPF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- TGS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- YPF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
TGS (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -11.73% price change this week, while YPF (@Integrated Oil) price change was -10.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -2.56%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.68%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.39%.
Reported Earning Dates
TGS is expected to report earnings on Mar 09, 2027.
YPF is expected to report earnings on Mar 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-2.56% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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TGS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TGS has been closely correlated with YPF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TGS jumps, then YPF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TGS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGS | 100% | -3.34% | ||
| YPF - TGS | 79% Closely correlated | -6.70% | ||
| PBR - TGS | 36% Loosely correlated | -4.04% | ||
| CRGY - TGS | 35% Loosely correlated | -5.14% | ||
| SHEL - TGS | 33% Loosely correlated | -3.45% | ||
| EQNR - TGS | 29% Poorly correlated | -6.87% | ||
More | ||||
YPF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YPF has been closely correlated with TGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if YPF jumps, then TGS could also see price increases.