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EC vs YPF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ecopetrol (EC) vs. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two state-controlled Latin American energy leaders: EC (Ecopetrol S.A.) is Colombia's dominant integrated oil and gas company, while YPF (YPF Sociedad Anónima) is Argentina's largest integrated energy producer.
- Contrasting growth profiles: Ecopetrol is refining- and dividend-oriented, whereas YPF is a shale-driven growth story centered on the Vaca Muerta formation.
- Both posted strong recent results: Each company reported meaningful year-over-year earnings gains in recent quarters, supported by firmer oil prices and operational improvements.
- Momentum favors YPF: YPF delivered record adjusted EBITDA and raised guidance, while Ecopetrol's rally has drawn more cautious analyst commentary on valuation.
- Risk profiles differ: Ecopetrol faces currency and reserve-life concerns; YPF carries higher execution and Argentina-specific country risk tied to infrastructure and LNG projects.
- Relative positioning: YPF trades at a low earnings multiple with strong estimate momentum, while Ecopetrol offers a higher dividend yield but a more mixed analyst consensus.
Introduction
Investors evaluating Latin American energy exposure often weigh two prominent state-controlled producers: Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), Colombia's flagship integrated oil and gas company, and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), Argentina's leading integrated energy firm. Although both operate across upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, their investment narratives diverge sharply. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how relative performance, market positioning, and growth drivers differ between a mature, refining-heavy producer and a fast-scaling shale operator. The comparison examines recent performance, catalysts, risk factors, and sentiment to clarify which name may currently present the more compelling profile.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. is Colombia's dominant integrated energy company, majority-owned by the Colombian government, with operations spanning exploration and production, transportation and logistics, and refining and petrochemicals. In recent quarters, the company has delivered stronger-than-expected results, driven in large part by historically strong refining margins. In its most recent reported period, revenue rose sharply year over year while net income and earnings per share improved by triple-digit percentages, supported by higher throughput at its Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries.
Recent market activity has seen EC shares climb well off their 52-week low, reflecting firmer crude prices, a resilient refining segment, and progress on portfolio optimization, including partnerships in the Magdalena Medio region and a planned expansion into Brazil through an acquisition of a stake in Brava Energia. However, sentiment remains mixed: a stronger Colombian peso has pressured dollar-linked revenue, and several analysts have maintained cautious ratings, citing free cash flow generation, a comparatively short reserve life, and limited near-term production growth. The stock also carries an attractive dividend yield relative to peers.
YPF Overview and Recent Performance
YPF Sociedad Anónima is Argentina's largest integrated energy company, also majority-controlled by the state, and is in the midst of a strategic transformation toward shale-led production in the Vaca Muerta formation. Recent quarters have been notable for record results: adjusted EBITDA reached an all-time high, and net income swung strongly into positive territory, reflecting higher shale oil output, lower lifting costs, and record refinery processing that eliminated fuel imports.
Shale oil production has grown rapidly year over year and now represents the clear majority of the company's oil output, while unit lifting costs have fallen sharply as mature conventional fields are divested. Management has raised full-year EBITDA guidance and continues to target a December shale oil exit rate of roughly 250,000 barrels per day. YPF shares have advanced strongly over the past year, supported by improving cash flow, a declining net leverage ratio, and progress on export infrastructure such as the VMOS pipeline and the Argentina LNG project. The primary offset is execution risk tied to completing major projects on schedule and the broader Argentina-specific regulatory and financing environment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While both companies are integrated, state-influenced energy producers, their business models and growth drivers differ considerably. Ecopetrol's near-term earnings strength has leaned heavily on refining margins and cost discipline, with upstream production relatively stable and a diversification push into Brazil still in progress. YPF, by contrast, is a shale growth story: output from Vaca Muerta is expanding quickly while costs fall, and the company is shifting toward an export-oriented model supported by new infrastructure.
On momentum and sentiment, the two names point in slightly different directions. YPF has delivered successive record quarters, raised its outlook, and reduced leverage to its lowest level in more than a decade, a combination that has underpinned strong relative performance. Ecopetrol has also beaten expectations, yet its post-rally valuation has prompted several analysts to downgrade or hold ratings, with consensus price targets below the current share price. Risk factors likewise diverge: Ecopetrol is exposed to Colombian peso appreciation and questions around reserve life, while YPF carries higher execution and country risk centered on project timelines and Argentina's macro environment. Sector exposure is similar on the surface, but YPF's tilt toward unconventional growth and exports contrasts with Ecopetrol's refining- and income-oriented profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor YPF in the current environment. The company displays stronger trend consistency, a sequence of record quarterly results, upward guidance revisions, and tangible catalysts in the form of shale production growth, declining leverage, and the Argentina LNG final investment decision. These characteristics tend to align with trend-following and momentum-based scoring. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: EC retains notable strengths, including a higher dividend yield, robust refining performance, and a more diversified geographic footprint, which could appeal to income- and stability-oriented strategies. A final AI preference would ultimately depend on the specific trading style, timeframe, and risk tolerance embedded in any given bot's algorithm.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EC is a Hold and YPF is a Buy.
EC in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
EC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 34 cases where EC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EC advanced for three days, in 239 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EC as a result. In 44 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for EC turned negative on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 54%.
EC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for EC entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 30, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: EC's P/B Ratio (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.508). EC has a moderately low P/E Ratio (0.002) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.670) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). EC's Dividend Yield (0.169) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.053). P/S Ratio (0.986) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. EC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
YPF in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026
YPF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 27 cases where YPF's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where YPF advanced for three days, in 291 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on YPF as a result. In 62 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for YPF turned negative on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
YPF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where YPF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for YPF entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 30, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 30 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. YPF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.210) is normal, around the industry mean (1.508). YPF has a moderately high P/E Ratio (20.455) as compared to the industry average of (10.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.053) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.040) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
EC | YPF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 62 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 5 Undervalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 1 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 81 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 30 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EC's Valuation (5) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for YPF (75). This means that EC’s stock grew significantly faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (1) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (29). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
EC's SMR Rating (19) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (81). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Price Growth Rating (44) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (63). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Integrated Oil industry is significantly better than the same rating for EC (97). This means that YPF’s stock grew significantly faster than EC’s over the last 12 months.
| EC | YPF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 29 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 79% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while YPF’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- EC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- YPF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EC’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YPF’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EC’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- YPF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
EC (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -3.46% price change this week, while YPF (@Integrated Oil) price change was -13.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -9.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.92%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.16%.
Reported Earning Dates
EC is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
YPF is expected to report earnings on Mar 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-9.07% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with CRGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then CRGY could also see price increases.
YPF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YPF has been closely correlated with TGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if YPF jumps, then TGS could also see price increases.