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EC vs YPF
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) vs. YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EC boasts a stronger YTD return of 49.21% compared to YPF's 23.14%, reflecting robust year-to-date momentum in recent market activity.
- Both stocks exhibit low volatility with negative betas (EC: -0.04; YPF: -0.05), offering relative stability amid energy sector fluctuations.
- EC provides a dividend yield of 4.75%, appealing to income-focused investors, while YPF focuses on growth via Vaca Muerta shale expansions.
- EC holds a larger market cap at $28.84B versus YPF's $18.75B, underscoring its scale in integrated energy operations.
- Recent developments highlight EC's international expansion into Brazil and YPF's major fracking contracts, signaling growth catalysts.
- Over the past year, EC delivered 80.70% returns, outpacing YPF's 52.73% amid shifting Latin American energy dynamics.
Introduction
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) represent prominent integrated energy firms in Latin America, with operations spanning oil and gas exploration, production, refining, and transportation. Both companies navigate commodity price volatility, geopolitical influences, and regional resource booms like Colombia's offshore fields and Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning, aiding traders seeking energy sector exposure and investors evaluating relative strength in emerging market equities. In the current environment of fluctuating crude prices and energy transition pressures, understanding their contrasts supports informed portfolio decisions.
EC Overview and Recent Performance
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC), Colombia's state-controlled integrated energy giant headquartered in Bogotá, engages in exploration, production, refining, and logistics across Colombia, South America, the U.S., and beyond. Its segments include upstream oil and gas, midstream transport, downstream petrochemicals, and power infrastructure. Trading around $14.03 with a market cap of $28.84B, EC features a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings ratio, a measure of valuation relative to earnings) of 11.69 and a 4.75% dividend yield. Recent market activity shows YTD gains of 49.21% and 1-year returns of 80.70%, supported by a low beta of -0.04 indicating lower volatility than the market. Sentiment has been buoyed by strategic moves like acquiring a 26% stake in Brazil's Brava Energia for expanded offshore exposure and partnerships such as with Parex Resources in the Magdalena Basin. Upcoming Q1 2026 earnings and Form 20-F filing underscore operational transparency, influencing positive price behavior amid stable oil demand.
YPF Overview and Recent Performance
YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF), Argentina's leading energy company based in Buenos Aires, operates across upstream exploration in the Vaca Muerta shale, midstream transport, downstream refining, and emerging LNG and renewables. It produces crude oil, natural gas, petrochemicals, and fertilizers, with a focus on hydrocarbon commercialization. At approximately $44.43, YPF commands a $18.75B market cap and a trailing P/E of 11.70, with a beta of -0.05 signaling market-decoupled stability. YTD performance stands at 23.14%, with 1-year gains of 52.73%, driven by Argentina's record oil output. Key influences include a multibillion-dollar fracking contract with Halliburton in Vaca Muerta, shareholder approvals for mergers and reserves, and analyst upgrades like UBS maintaining Neutral at $45. These developments have shaped sentiment, balancing growth potential against macroeconomic risks in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) and YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) share integrated models in Latin American oil and gas but diverge in scale and drivers. EC's larger operations emphasize diversified refining and power concessions, with international pushes like Brazil acquisitions contrasting YPF's Vaca Muerta shale dominance for upstream growth. Recent momentum favors EC with superior YTD and 1-year returns, while YPF benefits from Argentina's output surge and contracts. Risk profiles differ: both low-beta stocks mitigate volatility, but YPF faces higher Argentina-specific economic risks versus EC's Colombian stability. Sector exposure aligns on energy, yet EC offers dividends (4.75% yield) for income, trading off against YPF's growth narrative. Market sentiment tilts toward EC for consistency amid oil price swings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI analysis leans toward Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) in the current environment, based on superior trend consistency with 49% YTD gains, a reliable dividend stream, and low-risk profile evidenced by negative beta and strategic expansions. YPF shows promise via shale catalysts, but EC's relative stability and outperformance position it favorably for probabilistic upside amid energy market positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EC is a Hold and YPF is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EC’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileYPF’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- EC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- YPF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while YPF’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- YPF’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 1 bearish.
Price Growth
EC (@Integrated Oil) experienced а -7.89% price change this week, while YPF (@Integrated Oil) price change was +2.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -1.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was +22.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
EC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
YPF is expected to report earnings on Aug 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-1.39% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| EC | YPF | EC / YPF | |
| Capitalization | 26.2B | 17.6B | 149% |
| EBITDA | 45.13T | 2.49B | 1,814,556% |
| Gain YTD | 44.054 | 24.309 | 181% |
| P/E Ratio | 9.69 | 11.70 | 83% |
| Revenue | 119.69T | 18.6B | 643,516% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.69B | - |
| Total Debt | N/A | 10.8B | - |
EC | YPF | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 75 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | 92 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
EC's Valuation (29) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (63). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (28). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
YPF's SMR Rating (92) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as EC (100). This means that YPF’s stock grew similarly to EC’s over the last 12 months.
EC's Price Growth Rating (42) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as YPF (44). This means that EC’s stock grew similarly to YPF’s over the last 12 months.
EC's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for YPF (74). This means that EC’s stock grew somewhat faster than YPF’s over the last 12 months.
| EC | YPF | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 86% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 84% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 80% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| URE | 70.70 | 0.24 | +0.34% |
| ProShares Ultra Real Estate | |||
| DFNM | 48.21 | -0.05 | -0.10% |
| Dimensional National Municipal Bond ETF | |||
| TEI | 6.39 | -0.01 | -0.16% |
| Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund | |||
| MYCK | 24.80 | -0.04 | -0.16% |
| State Street® My2031 Corporate Bond ETF | |||
| FEGE | 49.77 | -0.09 | -0.18% |
| FIRST EAGLE GLOBAL EQUITY ETF | |||
EC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EC has been loosely correlated with EQNR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EC jumps, then EQNR could also see price increases.
YPF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, YPF has been closely correlated with TGS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if YPF jumps, then TGS could also see price increases.