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PICK vs XME
Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) vs. SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME)
Key Takeaways
- PICK provides global exposure to metals and mining producers excluding gold and silver, while XME focuses exclusively on U.S. companies across a broader range of metals and mining sub-industries including gold.
- PICK holds approximately 240–270 securities with market-cap weighting, offering broader geographic diversification across developed and emerging markets.
- XME employs a modified equal-weighted approach with roughly 39 holdings, emphasizing balance across large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. miners and steel producers.
- PICK carries an expense ratio of 0.39%, compared with 0.35% for XME, reflecting differences in index complexity and geographic scope.
- Both ETFs target the materials sector but differ in thematic purity: PICK screens out precious metals for a cleaner industrial metals focus, whereas XME includes gold, silver, and coal exposure.
- Structural distinctions in holdings concentration, regional allocation, and rebalancing methodology drive divergent risk profiles and sensitivity to global commodity cycles versus domestic U.S. industrial trends.
Introduction
Investors seeking targeted exposure to the metals and mining sector often evaluate PICK and XME as complementary rather than direct competitors. These exchange-traded funds (ETFs) deliver distinct strategies within the same broad industry: one emphasizes global industrial metals producers with gold and silver exclusions, while the other delivers modified equal-weighted access to U.S. metals and mining companies across multiple sub-industries. In the current environment of evolving commodity demand, infrastructure spending, and supply-chain considerations, comparing their structural characteristics helps clarify positioning for sector rotation or thematic allocation decisions.
iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) Overview
The PICK ETF seeks to track the MSCI ACWI Select Metals & Mining Producers Ex Gold & Silver Investable Market Index. It holds approximately 240–270 securities and applies market-capitalization weighting. Top holdings typically include BHP, Rio Tinto, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Glencore, and Anglo American, with the top 10 positions accounting for roughly 45–50% of assets. Sector allocations concentrate in diversified metals and mining (around 50%), steel (around 26%), and copper (around 14%). The fund charges an expense ratio of 0.39% and follows a passive, rules-based methodology with quarterly index reviews. Its global footprint spans Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and emerging markets, providing diversified exposure to industrial metals demand while excluding gold and silver producers.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) Overview
The XME ETF seeks to track the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index through a modified equal-weighted methodology. It holds approximately 39 securities, balancing exposure across large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. companies. Top holdings often include Reliance Inc (RS), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Steel Dynamics (STLD), Nucor (NUE), and Commercial Metals (CMC), with the top 10 representing about 50% of assets. The portfolio spans aluminum, coal, copper, diversified metals, gold, precious metals, silver, and steel sub-industries. XME carries an expense ratio of 0.35% and rebalances quarterly. Its U.S.-centric focus delivers concentrated domestic exposure with potential for higher volatility due to equal weighting and inclusion of precious metals and coal producers.
Industry and Thematic Backdrop
The metals and mining sector operates amid fluctuating industrial demand, infrastructure initiatives, energy transition requirements, and supply constraints. Macroeconomic factors such as global manufacturing activity, construction spending, and commodity price cycles influence both ETFs. Regulatory developments around mining permits, environmental standards, and trade policies add complexity. Capital flows into critical minerals for electrification and decarbonization support long-term structural demand, while short-term volatility arises from inventory cycles and geopolitical supply risks. Both funds reflect these dynamics through their respective geographic and sub-industry tilts.
Performance and Positioning Comparison
In recent market cycles, PICK has exhibited sensitivity to global industrial metals prices and international economic growth, with its ex-gold/silver screen reducing exposure to precious metals volatility. XME has shown greater responsiveness to U.S. steel and domestic mining earnings, amplified by equal weighting that elevates smaller constituents. Relative positioning highlights PICK’s broader diversification versus XME’s concentrated U.S. tilt and inclusion of gold and coal. Volatility differences stem from geographic scope and weighting methodology, with XME often displaying higher turnover effects from quarterly rebalancing. These characteristics influence behavior during sector rotations driven by commodity trends or macroeconomic shifts.
AI Screener
Tickeron’s AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to uncover additional opportunities aligned with sector themes.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probability of favorability to XME due to its lower expense ratio, modified equal-weighted diversification across U.S. market-cap segments, and inclusion of multiple sub-industries that may align with domestic industrial momentum. PICK offers compelling global reach and thematic purity but carries a higher cost and greater concentration in large-cap international names. Final selection depends on an investor’s geographic preference and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PICK is a Hold and XME is a Hold.
PICK in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026
PICK moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PICK as a result. In 70 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PICK turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 82%.
The 10-day moving average for PICK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PICK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for PICK entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PICK advanced for three days, in 304 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
PICK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
XME sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
XME saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 13, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
XME moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XME crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XME declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Aroon Indicator for XME entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XME advanced for three days, in 337 of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
XME may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
| PICK | XME | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 89% | 20 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 88% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 79% |
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PICK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PICK has been closely correlated with BHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PICK jumps, then BHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PICK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PICK | 100% | -0.33% | ||
| BHP - PICK | 91% Closely correlated | +0.35% | ||
| RIO - PICK | 90% Closely correlated | -0.86% | ||
| MT - PICK | 72% Closely correlated | -1.25% | ||
| CSTM - PICK | 61% Loosely correlated | -3.21% | ||
| IDR - PICK | 60% Loosely correlated | -3.67% | ||
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XME and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XME has been closely correlated with CDE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XME jumps, then CDE could also see price increases.