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PLUG vs RUN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Plug Power (PLUG) vs. Sunrun (RUN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Plug Power (PLUG) is executing a margin-recovery turnaround in hydrogen fuel cells and electrolyzers, while Sunrun (RUN) is scaling a storage-first residential solar model.
- Both stocks have been volatile and have meaningfully underperformed over the past year, though their underlying fundamentals are improving at different paces.
- PLUG remains cash-flow negative and relies on non-dilutive asset monetization, whereas RUN is already generating positive cash and profitability on a GAAP basis.
- Analyst consensus is more constructive on Sunrun (Buy) than on Plug Power (Hold), reflecting differing risk profiles.
- Relative performance hinges on hydrogen project execution for PLUG versus storage attachment and grid-services monetization for RUN.
Introduction
Plug Power and Sunrun both operate in the clean-energy transition but occupy distinct niches. PLUG builds an integrated hydrogen ecosystem spanning production, fuel cells, and electrolyzers, while RUN is America's largest provider of residential solar and battery storage. This stock comparison is relevant to investors weighing two turnaround stories in adjacent sectors: one seeking profitability from industrial hydrogen, the other monetizing a growing distributed-energy fleet. Understanding their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors can help clarify which narrative currently offers stronger momentum and stability.
PLUG Overview and Recent Performance
Plug Power designs and operates a fully integrated hydrogen platform serving material handling, industrial, and energy markets. In recent quarters, management has emphasized margin expansion, disciplined capital deployment, and converting its electrolyzer pipeline into profitable growth under a strategy known internally as "Project Quantum Leap." Recent financial results showed roughly 22% year-over-year revenue growth, with gross margin improving sharply toward negative 13% from a deeply negative prior-year level. Electrolyzer revenue has grown rapidly, while the legacy fuel-cell business remains a steady contributor.
Despite these operational gains, PLUG has traded under pressure over recent months, and the stock remains more than 90% below its levels of five years ago. Sentiment has been shaped by concerns about cash burn and shareholder dilution, even as management targets positive EBITDAS (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and stock-based compensation) in the fourth quarter of 2026. Analysts maintain a broadly neutral "Hold" consensus, reflecting both the improving trajectory and lingering execution risk.
RUN Overview and Recent Performance
Sunrun is the largest U.S. residential solar and battery storage provider, positioning itself as a distributed power plant operator rather than a simple panel installer. The company has leaned into a storage-first, vertically integrated strategy, with battery attachment rates rising to roughly 73% of new installations in recent quarters and a fleet of dispatchable storage expanding beyond four gigawatt-hours. Recent results have shown strong revenue growth and profitability on a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis, with management reiterating full-year cash-generation guidance.
Despite this, RUN has experienced notable share-price weakness over the past year, with the stock declining sharply even as fundamentals improved. Investor caution has centered on tax-credit financing dynamics, affiliate-channel volume reductions, and broader sentiment toward residential solar. The analyst consensus remains a "Buy," with an average price target well above recent trading levels, indicating a more favorable professional outlook than the stock's recent momentum would suggest.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is maturity of cash flow. RUN is already generating positive cash generation and GAAP profitability, while PLUG is still working toward that milestone and relies on asset sales and credit monetization to preserve liquidity. In terms of growth drivers, PLUG is levered to industrial hydrogen adoption and electrolyzer order flow, whereas RUN depends on residential storage attachment, grid services, and recurring subscriber revenue.
Risk profiles also differ. PLUG faces execution and financing risk around large, capital-intensive hydrogen projects. RUN faces sensitivity to tax-credit policy, capital-markets financing for its subscriber model, and interest-rate pressures on residential demand. Sector exposure is another differentiator: PLUG sits in the industrial hydrogen and fuel-cell space, while RUN belongs to residential solar and battery storage. Market sentiment currently assigns a higher consensus rating to RUN, yet both stocks trade well below their average analyst price targets, suggesting the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty for each.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, cash-flow stability, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RUN over PLUG in the current environment. Sunrun's established cash generation, stronger analyst consensus, and recurring-revenue model provide a more stable footing than Plug Power's still-developing path to profitability. That said, the assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: PLUG's margin improvement and electrolyzer momentum could support a stronger relative trend if execution continues to accelerate. The comparative advantage may shift as each company's catalysts unfold, so ongoing monitoring of both stocks remains essential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PLUG is a Hold and RUN is a Buy.
PLUG in -7.74% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 19, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where PLUG declined for three days, in 343 of 381 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PLUG as a result. In 62 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PLUG turned negative on September 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
The Aroon Indicator for PLUG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 19 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PLUG advanced for three days, in 166 of 209 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
PLUG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.386) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.099). P/E Ratio (-1.068) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.242). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.900). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.593) is also within normal values, averaging (8.019).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PLUG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PLUG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
RUN sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 20, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for RUN moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 51 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RUN as a result. In 77 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RUN just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where RUN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +10.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RUN advanced for three days, in 214 of 257 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
RUN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RUN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator for RUN entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.526) is normal, around the industry mean (2.617). P/E Ratio (4.482) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.265). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.699). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (5.133).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RUN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RUN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 99, placing this stock worse than average.
PLUG | RUN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 38 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 62 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 90 | 83 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 15 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 12 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PLUG's Valuation (38) in the Electronic Components industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RUN (76) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that PLUG’s stock grew somewhat faster than RUN’s over the last 12 months.
PLUG's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as RUN (100) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that PLUG’s stock grew similarly to RUN’s over the last 12 months.
RUN's SMR Rating (62) in the Electrical Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PLUG (99) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that RUN’s stock grew somewhat faster than PLUG’s over the last 12 months.
RUN's Price Growth Rating (83) in the Electrical Products industry is in the same range as PLUG (90) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that RUN’s stock grew similarly to PLUG’s over the last 12 months.
PLUG's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Electronic Components industry is significantly better than the same rating for RUN (81) in the Electrical Products industry. This means that PLUG’s stock grew significantly faster than RUN’s over the last 12 months.
| PLUG | RUN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 4 days ago 87% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 84% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PLUG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while RUN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- PLUG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- RUN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PLUG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RUN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PLUG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RUN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
PLUG (@Electrical Products) experienced а -2.76% price change this week, while RUN (@Alternative Power Generation) price change was +4.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electrical Products industry was -9.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -25.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Alternative Power Generation industry was -4.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -14.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -39.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
PLUG is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
RUN is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electrical Products (-9.22% weekly)The industry produces a diverse range of electricity-powered equipment, appliances and components, catering to both households and industries. The products include power, distribution and specialty transformers; electric motors, generators and motor-generator sets; switchgear and switchboard apparatus; light bulbs, tubes, fittings and electric signs etc. Consumer income, construction spending, and industrial production are major drivers of demand for this industry’s products. Large companies tend to have economies of scale in production, marketing, and distribution, while smaller companies can potentially carve out their own market through niche or specialty offerings. The US electrical products manufacturing industry includes about 5,700 establishments (single-location companies and units of multi-location companies) with combined annual revenue of about $125 billion. (according to a study published in First Research). Emerson Electric Co., Hubbell Incorporated and Eaton Corporation plc are major electrical products makers in the U.S.
@Alternative Power Generation (-4.44% weekly)The alternative power generation industry consists of companies that operate power facilities converting non-conventional forms of energy into electricity. These energy forms are alternatives to fossil fuels, and many of them are derived from natural resources. Alternative energy forms include solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal steam. A major purpose behind using alternative energy – also called ‘clean’ energy - is to address concerns related to the more conventional fossil fuels, such as the latter’s high carbon dioxide emissions which is often considered a factor in global warming. Alternative power generation has been gaining traction in recent years, and could grow further in the future. Large organizations like Google have invested substantially in wind and solar energy-powered electricity. Some of the prominent U.S. companies operating in the alternative power generation industry includes Ormat Technologies, Inc., TerraForm Power, Inc. and NextEra Energy Partners LP.
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RUN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RUN has been closely correlated with FCEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RUN jumps, then FCEL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RUN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RUN | 100% | +0.66% | ||
| FCEL - RUN | 67% Closely correlated | +6.45% | ||
| BE - RUN | 61% Loosely correlated | +7.13% | ||
| PLUG - RUN | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.71% | ||
| ENVX - RUN | 55% Loosely correlated | +12.89% | ||
| ENPH - RUN | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
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