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RIO vs VALE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. Vale S.A. (VALE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- RIO reported stronger year-to-date performance than VALE, with gains of approximately 16.5% compared to lower double-digit returns for VALE.
- Both companies are major iron ore producers, but RIO benefits from greater diversification across copper, aluminum, and lithium operations.
- RIO’s second-quarter iron ore sales exceeded estimates, supported by operational improvements, while copper production faced temporary setbacks.
- VALE maintains a concentrated exposure to high-quality Brazilian iron ore assets, offering cost advantages but higher geographic concentration risk.
- Market capitalization and revenue figures favor RIO at roughly $149 billion and $53-58 billion respectively, versus lower figures for VALE.
- Both stocks have attracted positive analyst attention, with recent momentum influenced by iron ore demand and broader mining sector dynamics.
Introduction
Rio Tinto (RIO) and Vale S.A. (VALE) rank among the world’s largest iron ore producers and diversified miners. Investors and traders often compare these stocks to evaluate exposure to commodity cycles, operational efficiency, and geographic diversification within the basic materials sector. This analysis examines recent performance, business models, and market positioning to assist those seeking relative value insights in the mining space. The comparison highlights trade-offs that may appeal to portfolio managers balancing growth, income, and risk in global resource equities.
RIO Overview and Recent Performance
Rio Tinto operates as a diversified global miner with major assets in iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium across Australia, North America, and other regions. In recent market activity, the stock has delivered solid year-to-date gains of around 16.5%, outperforming broader benchmarks in some periods. Second-quarter iron ore shipments rose notably and exceeded analyst estimates, driven by strong operational execution in the Pilbara region. Copper production encountered temporary disruptions from mine outages, prompting a downward revision to 2026 unit cost guidance. Overall sentiment has remained constructive amid resilient commodity demand, with the stock trading near $91 in late July and offering a dividend yield near 4.4%.
VALE Overview and Recent Performance
Vale S.A. is a leading Brazilian miner focused primarily on iron ore, with additional exposure to nickel and other base metals. The company’s operations center on high-grade assets in the Carajás region, supporting competitive cost structures. In recent weeks, VALE has posted year-to-date returns in the low-to-mid teens, trailing RIO on a relative basis. Market sentiment reflects steady iron ore fundamentals, though the stock has shown more volatility tied to Brazilian economic and regulatory developments. With a lower market capitalization and revenue base compared to peers, VALE continues to emphasize operational efficiency and debt management in its recent reporting cycle.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
RIO and VALE share core exposure to iron ore markets but differ markedly in diversification and geographic footprint. RIO maintains broader operations across multiple commodities and continents, potentially reducing single-asset risk, while VALE concentrates on premium Brazilian iron ore deposits that benefit from lower production costs. Recent momentum has favored RIO on stronger shipment results and higher year-to-date returns. Risk factors include commodity price swings for both, with VALE carrying additional considerations around Brazilian regulatory and currency dynamics. Sector exposure remains aligned in basic materials, though RIO’s larger scale and revenue base provide a different market positioning relative to VALE’s more focused profile. Overall, investors weigh RIO’s stability against VALE’s cost advantages in a commodities-driven environment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent shipment beats, stronger year-to-date price consistency, and diversified revenue streams, Tickeron’s AI models may currently assign a modest edge to RIO over VALE. The probabilistic assessment reflects RIO’s operational resilience and broader exposure, though outcomes remain subject to commodity price movements and execution risks for both companies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is RIO is a StrongBuy and VALE is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
RIO’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileVALE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- RIO’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- VALE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
RIO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while VALE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- RIO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- VALE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
RIO (@Other Metals/Minerals) experienced а -0.29% price change this week, while VALE (@Other Metals/Minerals) price change was -3.48% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Other Metals/Minerals industry was +5.37%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
RIO is expected to report earnings on Oct 13, 2026.
VALE is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Other Metals/Minerals (+5.37% weekly)The category includes companies that explore for, mine and extract metals, such as copper, diamonds, nickel, cobalt ore, lead, zinc and uranium. BHP, Rio Tinto and Southern Copper Corporation are major players in this space.
| RIO | VALE | RIO / VALE | |
| Capitalization | 165B | 62B | 266% |
| EBITDA | 26.2B | 10.7B | 245% |
| Gain YTD | 30.014 | 10.668 | 281% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.71 | 28.84 | 48% |
| Revenue | 61.8B | 39.5B | 156% |
| Total Cash | 9.51B | 5.28B | 180% |
| Total Debt | 22.9B | 22.2B | 103% |
RIO | VALE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 3 Undervalued | 4 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 96 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 48 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RIO's Valuation (3) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as VALE (4) in the Steel industry. This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to VALE’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for VALE (76) in the Steel industry. This means that RIO’s stock grew somewhat faster than VALE’s over the last 12 months.
VALE's SMR Rating (78) in the Steel industry is in the same range as RIO (96) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that VALE’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
RIO's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry is in the same range as VALE (52) in the Steel industry. This means that RIO’s stock grew similarly to VALE’s over the last 12 months.
VALE's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Steel industry is in the same range as RIO (20) in the Other Metals Or Minerals industry. This means that VALE’s stock grew similarly to RIO’s over the last 12 months.
| RIO | VALE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 9 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 57% | 7 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 70% |
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VALE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, VALE has been closely correlated with BHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if VALE jumps, then BHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To VALE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VALE | 100% | +0.70% | ||
| BHP - VALE | 82% Closely correlated | +0.11% | ||
| RIO - VALE | 77% Closely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| WRN - VALE | 52% Loosely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| SKE - VALE | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| FURY - VALE | 47% Loosely correlated | +3.71% | ||
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