SEMI and VGT are frequently compared by investors seeking concentrated exposure to the technology sector, yet they are not direct competitors. SEMI is an actively managed, high-conviction vehicle emphasizing semiconductors and semiconductor-related companies, while VGT is a passive, market-capitalization-weighted index fund covering the full U.S. information technology sector. In the current market environment, where artificial-intelligence demand, semiconductor cycles, and mega-cap earnings drive sector sentiment, understanding these structural differences matters more than ever. This ETF comparison evaluates index construction, sector exposure, cost, liquidity, and relative positioning to help investors determine which fund better fits their objectives.
SEMI is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that seeks capital appreciation by investing at least 80% of its net assets in technology and technology-related companies. Rather than tracking an index, portfolio managers use in-depth research to build a focused portfolio typically holding between 30 and 50 securities; the fund currently holds roughly 36 positions. It is non-diversified and may trade frequently, which can raise portfolio turnover and tax considerations.
The fund carries a net expense ratio of 0.75%. Its top holdings include NVDA, AAPL, AVGO, MU, MSFT, and LRCX, with additional positions in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML Holding N.V. This lineup gives SEMI pronounced exposure to semiconductors and semiconductor equipment, making its returns sensitive to the global chip cycle, memory pricing, and AI-driven capital expenditure. As a smaller fund, it also tends to have thinner trading volume than large passive peers.
VGT is a passively managed ETF that tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Information Technology 25/50 Index, a market-cap-weighted benchmark of large-, mid-, and small-cap U.S. technology companies classified under the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The fund uses an indexing approach designed to hold each constituent in approximately the same proportion as the index, spanning roughly 320 holdings across software, hardware, semiconductors, and IT services.
VGT charges a 0.09% expense ratio, among the lowest in the sector. Its top holdings include NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, AVGO, and MU, followed by AMD, CSCO, and PLTR. Despite its breadth, VGT remains top-heavy, with the top ten positions representing roughly 60% of assets. As one of the largest technology ETFs, it offers deep liquidity, tight bid-ask spreads, and a long operating track record dating back to 2004.
Both funds sit at the center of a powerful technology investment cycle driven by artificial-intelligence infrastructure spending, cloud adoption, and demand for advanced chips and memory. Semiconductor leaders have benefited from sustained data-center capital expenditure, while software and IT services names remain exposed to enterprise technology budgets. At the same time, the sector faces cyclical and regulatory risks, including semiconductor inventory swings, export controls on advanced chips, and elevated valuations tied to interest-rate expectations. Within this environment, concentrated semiconductor vehicles such as SEMI are more sensitive to chip-cycle turning points, while VGT's broader mandate tempers single-theme swings by including software, hardware, and diversified IT services.
In recent market cycles, both funds have been driven by overlapping mega-cap holdings, particularly NVDA, AAPL, and MSFT, so their relative positioning has been highly correlated in broad market rallies. However, their divergence emerges during sector rotation and semiconductor-specific stress. SEMI's heavier semiconductor tilt and active positioning give it greater upside potential in strong chip cycles but also higher volatility and drawdown risk when memory or equipment demand softens. VGT, with its broader, rules-based portfolio and lower cost, has tended to exhibit more consistent trend behavior and smoother relative performance across full cycles, though both remain high-beta funds relative to the broader market.
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual screening. Whether you are evaluating concentrated thematic funds or broad sector vehicles, the AI Screener offers a structured way to compare and rank opportunities.
Based on observable structural factors, Tickeron's AI would currently favor VGT over SEMI. VGT offers a substantially lower expense ratio, far broader diversification across roughly 320 holdings, deeper liquidity, and the trend consistency of a rules-based index strategy, all of which support more efficient long-term positioning. While SEMI's concentrated semiconductor exposure can amplify returns during powerful chip upcycles, its higher cost, thinner trading volume, and greater single-theme risk make it a more volatile and less structurally robust choice. On a risk-adjusted basis, the AI's probabilistic assessment tilts toward VGT for most investors seeking diversified technology exposure.
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SEMI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 37 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SEMI as a result. In 61 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SEMI turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
The 10-day moving average for SEMI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SEMI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for SEMI entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SEMI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 51 cases where SEMI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +5.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SEMI advanced for three days, in 305 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
SEMI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
VGT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 36 of 38 cases where VGT's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where VGT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 60 cases where VGT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +4.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VGT advanced for three days, in 335 of 385 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on VGT as a result. In 74 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for VGT turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
VGT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for VGT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VGT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
The Aroon Indicator for VGT entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
| SEMI | VGT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 88% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 88% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 87% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 88% | 5 days ago 87% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 80% | 12 days ago 83% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 90% |
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SEMI has been closely correlated with TSM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SEMI jumps, then TSM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SEMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEMI | 100% | -0.40% | ||
| TSM - SEMI | 85% Closely correlated | -1.90% | ||
| GLW - SEMI | 71% Closely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| ANET - SEMI | 65% Loosely correlated | +5.06% | ||
| STM - SEMI | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| APH - SEMI | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.39% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TOLZ | 59.24 | 0.11 | +0.19% |
| ProShares DJ Brookfield Global Infrastructure ETF (TOLZ) | |||
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| State Street SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) | |||
| QMAR | 37.74 | -0.10 | -0.26% |
| FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March (QMAR) | |||
| GLWG | 7.25 | -0.11 | -1.49% |
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| Themes Silver Miners ETF (AGMI) | |||