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SFNC vs UBSI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Simmons First National (SFNC) vs. United Bankshares (UBSI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale, same sector: SFNC is a roughly $3.2 billion Mid-South regional lender, while UBSI is an approximately $34 billion-asset regional banking company with a broader Mid-Atlantic and Southeast footprint.
- Divergent recent momentum: UBSI has posted stronger relative performance and record earnings, while SFNC has shown a mixed recovery with improving profitability but contracting loans and deposits.
- Income profiles differ: SFNC currently carries a higher dividend yield, whereas UBSI emphasizes a 52-year streak of consecutive dividend increases.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed on both: SFNC received recent upgrades from Piper Sandler and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods but a downgrade from Morgan Stanley; UBSI has drawn multiple target-price increases from Raymond James.
- Net interest margin (NIM), the spread between loan yields and deposit costs, is central to both stories as each bank works to expand profitability in a shifting rate environment.
Introduction
Regional banks are a closely watched pocket of the financial sector, and Simmons First National and United Bankshares offer two distinct ways to gain exposure to the theme. Both are traditional deposit-funded lenders whose earnings hinge on net interest income (NII), the revenue earned from the spread between interest collected on loans and interest paid on deposits. Comparing SFNC and UBSI is useful for investors and traders who want to understand how scale, geographic footprint, credit quality, and capital-return strategies shape relative performance within the same industry. This stock comparison examines recent results, momentum, and the observable signals that might drive an AI-driven verdict on market positioning.
SFNC Overview and Recent Performance
Simmons First National Corporation, headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, is a Mid-South bank holding company founded in 1903. Its principal subsidiary, Simmons Bank, operates more than 220 branches across Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas, and it has paid cash dividends for 117 consecutive years. The company generates the bulk of its revenue from NII, which represented roughly 80% of total revenue over recent years.
In recent weeks, SFNC reported third-quarter results showing adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.54, in line with consensus, alongside a net interest margin (NIM) of about 3.92% that expanded eight basis points from the prior quarter. Management attributed the improvement to disciplined loan and deposit pricing and reduced noninterest expenses. At the same time, total loans and deposits declined on a linked-quarter basis, reflecting paydowns and a strategic shift toward higher-quality relationships. Recent analyst activity has been divided: Piper Sandler and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods both upgraded the stock, while Morgan Stanley moved to an underweight rating, underscoring a mixed view on near-term momentum.
UBSI Overview and Recent Performance
United Bankshares, Inc., headquartered in Charleston, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C., traces its roots to 1839 and is among the largest U.S. regional banking companies, with consolidated assets of approximately $34 billion. It operates through community banking and mortgage banking segments and completed its 34th acquisition, Atlanta-based Piedmont Bancorp, in early 2025, extending its Southeast franchise.
Recent market activity for UBSI has been comparatively strong, with the shares advancing well above broader regional-bank benchmarks on a year-to-date basis. The company reported record second-quarter earnings, following a first quarter in which net income rose to $124.2 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, and its NIM expanded to 3.80%. Analysts responded positively, with Raymond James raising its price target in successive moves and maintaining an outperform rating. United has also increased its dividend for 52 consecutive years and completed a share repurchase program, reinforcing a consistent capital-return posture that has supported investor sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies are regional banks, their business models and market positioning differ meaningfully. UBSI is the larger institution by assets and market capitalization, with a more diversified footprint spanning the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and a long record of acquisitions. SFNC is more concentrated in the Mid-South and relies more heavily on NII as a share of revenue, making its earnings comparatively sensitive to loan and deposit trends.
On recent momentum, UBSI has displayed greater consistency, with record earnings and a steadily rising stock, while SFNC is in an earlier stage of a profitability turnaround after a difficult prior year. Risk factors also differ: SFNC is navigating declining loan and deposit balances and balance-sheet optimization, whereas UBSI's larger concerns center on credit costs and the integration of acquired assets. From a valuation and income standpoint, SFNC's higher dividend yield may appeal to income-focused investors, while UBSI's dividend-growth streak and stronger share performance may attract momentum-oriented investors. In short, UBSI currently offers scale and stability, while SFNC presents a more value-oriented recovery profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would most likely favor UBSI at present. The stock's more consistent upward trend, record earnings, expanding NIM, and repeated analyst price-target increases point to stronger relative momentum and stability than SFNC, whose recovery is earlier stage and offset by shrinking loan and deposit balances and divided analyst views. That said, SFNC's improving margin and cost discipline could support a sustained turnaround over time, and the AI's preference could shift if its balance-sheet trends stabilize. This assessment is probabilistic and based on current data rather than a definitive prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SFNC is a StrongBuy and UBSI is a Buy.
SFNC's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SFNC turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where SFNC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SFNC as a result. In 51 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
SFNC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SFNC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SFNC advanced for three days, in 173 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 106 of 201 cases where SFNC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 30 of 53 cases where SFNC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SFNC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
SFNC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SFNC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.969) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (-8.581) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.590) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. SFNC's P/S Ratio (20.534) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SFNC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
UBSI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
UBSI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 29 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on UBSI as a result. In 44 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The 10-day moving average for UBSI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 38%.
Following a +0.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UBSI advanced for three days, in 150 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 100 of 216 cases where UBSI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UBSI moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 66 cases where UBSI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UBSI turned negative on November 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UBSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
UBSI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UBSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.192) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (13.103) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.184) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
SFNC | UBSI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 84 | 87 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 15 | 11 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
UBSI's Valuation (74) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SFNC (96) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UBSI’s stock grew similarly to SFNC’s over the last 12 months.
UBSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Regional Banks industry is significantly better than the same rating for SFNC (100) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UBSI’s stock grew significantly faster than SFNC’s over the last 12 months.
UBSI's SMR Rating (11) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SFNC (15) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UBSI’s stock grew similarly to SFNC’s over the last 12 months.
UBSI's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SFNC (43) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UBSI’s stock grew similarly to SFNC’s over the last 12 months.
UBSI's P/E Growth Rating (33) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as SFNC (49) in the Major Banks industry. This means that UBSI’s stock grew similarly to SFNC’s over the last 12 months.
| SFNC | UBSI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 50% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 17 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 46% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SFNC’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UBSI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- SFNC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UBSI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SFNC’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UBSI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SFNC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UBSI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
SFNC (@Regional Banks) experienced а +0.72% price change this week, while UBSI (@Regional Banks) price change was -2.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was -1.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.80%.
Reported Earning Dates
SFNC is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
UBSI is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (-1.23% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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SFNC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SFNC has been closely correlated with UBSI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SFNC jumps, then UBSI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SFNC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFNC | 100% | -0.63% | ||
| UBSI - SFNC | 86% Closely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| AUB - SFNC | 85% Closely correlated | -0.40% | ||
| FULT - SFNC | 85% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| FNB - SFNC | 84% Closely correlated | -0.33% | ||
| UCB - SFNC | 84% Closely correlated | +0.05% | ||
More | ||||
UBSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UBSI has been closely correlated with AUB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UBSI jumps, then AUB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UBSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBSI | 100% | -0.83% | ||
| AUB - UBSI | 90% Closely correlated | -0.40% | ||
| CATY - UBSI | 90% Closely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| FULT - UBSI | 90% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| ONB - UBSI | 88% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| TRMK - UBSI | 88% Closely correlated | +0.35% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| ENHU | 28.30 | 0.35 | +1.25% |
| iShares Enhanced Large Cap Core Active ETF (ENHU) | |||
| DDFO | 23.04 | 0.14 | +0.63% |
| Innovator Equity Dual Directional 15 Buffer ETF - October (DDFO) | |||
| DIVE | 28.55 | 0.08 | +0.28% |
| Dana Concentrated Dividend ETF (DIVE) | |||
| SHYG | 41.14 | 0.07 | +0.17% |
| iShares 0-5 Year High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (SHYG) | |||
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| Fidelity International Value Factor ETF (FIVA) | |||