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SOFI vs UPST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? SoFi Technologies (SOFI) vs. Upstart Holdings (UPST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both SOFI and UPST have delivered strong year-to-date gains of around 30% and 25%, respectively, reflecting fintech sector resilience.
- SOFI boasts a larger market capitalization of $23.4 billion compared to UPST's $3.1 billion, underscoring greater scale and diversification.
- Recent momentum shows both stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMA), signaling upward trends in recent weeks.
- SOFI benefits from broad financial services, while UPST focuses on AI-driven lending, leading to differing risk profiles.
- Upcoming earnings for SOFI (Q1 2026) and UPST highlight growth expectations, with projected revenue increases for both.
- Tickeron's AI signals lean toward SOFI for its trend consistency and profitability outlook.
Introduction
SOFI and UPST represent innovative players in the fintech lending space, blending digital banking and artificial intelligence to disrupt traditional finance. This comparison is particularly relevant for growth-oriented investors and traders seeking exposure to high-potential sectors amid evolving interest rate environments and economic shifts. By examining recent performance, business models, and market positioning, readers can gauge relative strengths in stock comparison and market sentiment.
SOFI Overview and Recent Performance
SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) operates as a digital financial services platform offering lending, technology platforms, and comprehensive banking products like checking, savings, investing, and credit cards. In recent market activity, SOFI shares have rallied, trading around $18.72 with a year-to-date gain of nearly 30% and a 52-week range of $12.05 to $32.73. Key influences include record Q4 2025 net revenue of $1.0 billion and net income of $174 million, alongside member and product growth. The stock recently crossed above its 50-day moving average (DMA), supported by positive momentum indicators and major loan deals, fostering improved sentiment despite broader fintech volatility.
UPST Overview and Recent Performance
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) runs a cloud-based AI lending marketplace facilitating personal, auto, and other loans through three segments: personal lending, auto lending, and other. Shares are near $32.86, with year-to-date returns of about 25% and a 52-week range from $23.97 to $87.30. Recent weeks have seen upward momentum, including a crossover above the 50-day DMA and positive momentum signals, driven by partnerships like a multi-year $1.2 billion forward-flow agreement and anticipated Q1 revenue growth of 35.6%. Sentiment has benefited from AI model enhancements, though higher volatility persists compared to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, SOFI offers diversified revenue from lending, financial services, and technology platforms, contrasting UPST’s specialized AI lending focus, which ties performance closely to loan originations and credit cycles. Growth drivers differ: SOFI leverages member expansion and cross-selling, while UPST emphasizes AI approvals and partnerships. Recent momentum favors both with upward trends, but SOFI shows steadier price growth. Risk factors include UPST’s higher PE ratio (73x earnings per share, or EPS) versus SOFI’s 47x, amplifying sensitivity to economic shifts. Sector exposure overlaps in fintech lending, yet SOFI’s banking charter provides stability. Market sentiment reflects optimism for both amid recovery, with trade-offs in scale versus innovation agility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors SOFI due to its consistent upward trend above the 50-day DMA, stronger sales growth ratings, and diversified catalysts like upcoming earnings and profitability gains. While UPST exhibits promising momentum from AI partnerships, its elevated valuation and volatility suggest higher uncertainty. This positioning indicates a probabilistic edge for SOFI in relative performance over near-term horizons.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SOFI is a Hold and UPST is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SOFI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileUPST’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- SOFI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UPST’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SOFI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UPST’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SOFI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- UPST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
SOFI (@Savings Banks) experienced а -12.02% price change this week, while UPST (@Savings Banks) price change was -11.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Savings Banks industry was -4.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
SOFI is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
UPST is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Savings Banks (-4.77% weekly)A savings bank primary function is to take deposits and paying interest on those deposits. Originating in Europe during the 18th century, these banks were generally introduced to incentivize people of all stripes to save money and park them with banks. By the 1990s, the internet ushered in online savings banks that allowed savers to deposit/transact with banks digitally, without requiring to visit a branch office. Savings banks have potentially encouraged lower-income population to save and have access to a financial institution to earn interest on their money. New York Community Bancorp, Inc, Webster Financial Corporation, Washington Federal, Inc. are examples of savings banks.
| SOFI | UPST | SOFI / UPST | |
| Capitalization | 20.6B | 2.85B | 724% |
| EBITDA | N/A | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | -38.770 | -31.992 | 121% |
| P/E Ratio | 35.62 | 72.54 | 49% |
| Revenue | 3.94B | 1.12B | 352% |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 1.92B | 1.94B | 99% |
| SOFI | UPST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 88% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 83% | 10 days ago 85% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 82% | 5 days ago 90% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 88% |
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UPST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UPST has been loosely correlated with AFRM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if UPST jumps, then AFRM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UPST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UPST | 100% | -7.84% | ||
| AFRM - UPST | 62% Loosely correlated | -7.41% | ||
| SOFI - UPST | 60% Loosely correlated | -6.53% | ||
| LC - UPST | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.39% | ||
| SYF - UPST | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| OMF - UPST | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.14% | ||
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