SUB
Price
$105.96Alerts
Change
+$0.11 (+0.10%)
Updated
Nov 11 closing price
Net Assets
13.38B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
VTES
Price
$100.69Alerts
Change
+$0.02 (+0.02%)
Updated
Nov 11 closing price
Net Assets
4.26B
Intraday BUY SELL Signals
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SUB vs VTES

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A.I.Advisor
Nov 04, 2026

Which ETF would AI Choose? iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF (SUB) vs. Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTES)

Key Takeaways

  • Both SUB and VTES are passively managed, short-maturity municipal bond ETFs that deliver federally tax-exempt income, making them direct competitors in the same category.
  • The funds differ on maturity range: SUB targets maturities of one month to five years, while VTES extends to seven years, giving VTES a modestly longer duration and slightly higher interest-rate sensitivity.
  • SUB is the larger, more liquid vehicle with roughly $11 billion in assets under management (AUM) and a 2008 inception, whereas VTES launched in 2023 and holds about $2 billion in AUM.
  • VTES is cheaper on paper with a 0.05% expense ratio versus 0.07% for SUB, though both are among the lowest-cost ways to access short-term municipal exposure.
  • Diversification is deep in both funds, with SUB holding roughly 3,000 bonds and VTES holding more than 3,300.
  • Tickeron AI Verdict: SUB — its greater scale, superior liquidity, longer operating history, and slightly shorter duration make it the more defensively positioned choice in the current rate environment.

Introduction

Short-term municipal bond ETFs have drawn renewed attention from investors seeking tax-efficient income while limiting interest-rate risk. The iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF (SUB) and the Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTES) sit squarely at the center of this conversation. Although they target essentially the same investor goal — federally tax-exempt income from high-quality municipal debt with limited duration — they are not identical. Differences in index construction, maturity limits, expense ratios, fund size, and liquidity make this ETF comparison genuinely useful for investors weighing relative positioning and cost efficiency.

iShares Short-Term National Muni Bond ETF (SUB) Overview

SUB is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the ICE Short Maturity AMT-Free US National Municipal Index. "AMT-Free" means the bonds are exempt from the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT), a parallel tax system that can otherwise reduce the tax benefit of some municipal income. The fund invests at least 80% of its assets in short-term, investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds with maturities between one month and five years, a constraint that keeps its interest-rate sensitivity low.

The portfolio holds roughly 3,000 individual bonds, with no single position exceeding about 0.4% of assets — a hallmark of broad diversification. Top holdings include general obligation (GO) debt issued by the State of California, New Jersey Economic Development Authority revenue bonds, New York City water finance obligations, and Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority revenue bonds. Exposure skews toward state general obligation and essential-service revenue issuers across education, transportation, and utilities. The fund carries a 0.07% expense ratio and has accumulated roughly $11 billion in AUM since its 2008 launch, giving it substantial secondary-market liquidity.

Vanguard Short-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTES) Overview

VTES is a passively managed ETF that tracks the S&P 0-7 Year National AMT-Free Municipal Bond Index. Its slightly broader mandate includes investment-grade municipal bonds with maturities between one month and seven years, which extends the fund's reach a bit further out the yield curve relative to SUB. The fund uses an optimized sampling technique rather than full replication, holding more than 3,300 bonds to match key index characteristics including duration, credit quality, and sector weight.

Credit quality is concentrated in the highest tiers, with roughly 84% of assets rated AA or higher (about 21% AAA and 63% AA). Top holdings include North Colonie Central School District obligations, New York City Transitional Finance Authority revenue bonds, California and New Jersey general obligation debt, and Dallas Independent School District issues. VTES charges a 0.05% expense ratio — among the lowest in the municipal space — and manages approximately $2 billion in AUM following its 2023 inception.

Industry and Thematic Backdrop

The short-term municipal segment is shaped by several macro and regulatory forces. Municipal credit fundamentals have remained broadly stable, supported by resilient state and local tax revenues and federal infrastructure disbursements. At the same time, the path of Federal Reserve policy has kept a spotlight on the front end of the yield curve, where both funds concentrate their holdings. Tax policy is a recurring catalyst: as marginal federal income tax rates stay historically elevated, the after-tax appeal of municipal income rises for investors in higher brackets. Demand for tax-exempt paper has also been reinforced by limited new-issue supply in certain states and by persistent retail appetite for low-duration, lower-volatility fixed income.

Performance and Positioning Comparison

Because both funds occupy the same short-duration municipal niche, their total returns have tracked each other closely across recent market cycles, with relative performance driven mainly by differences in duration, credit selection, and fees. SUB's five-year maturity cap keeps its duration modestly shorter than VTES's, which can extend to seven years; in recent weeks and months, this has translated into marginally less price sensitivity to interest-rate movements for SUB. VTES's lower expense ratio provides a small structural tailwind on net returns over time, while its heavier weighting toward AAA and AA credits offers a slightly more conservative credit profile. Liquidity and relative positioning, however, favor SUB, whose larger asset base and longer trading history generally support tighter spreads and deeper execution.

AI Screener

Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of securities with customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics, helping surface trade ideas, breakout candidates, and trending opportunities more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to build a screening workflow tailored to your strategy.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Between the two, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SUB as the more compelling choice in the current environment. Its combination of greater scale, deeper liquidity, and a longer operating record supports more consistent relative positioning, while its slightly shorter duration provides an incremental defensive buffer against interest-rate uncertainty. VTES remains an excellent low-cost alternative with a marginally cheaper fee and a strong credit profile, but its smaller asset base and shorter track record modestly weaken its structural edge. On balance, SUB's durability and liquidity profile give it the advantage in this head-to-head comparison.

Disclaimer

The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.

Disclaimers and Limitations

VS
SUB vs. VTES commentary
Nov 12, 2026

To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SUB is a Buy and VTES is a Buy.

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SUMMARIES
A.I.Advisor
a Summary for SUB with price predictions
Nov 11, 2026

SUB in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026

The 10-day moving average for SUB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 2 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 14%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

SUB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +0.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SUB advanced for three days, in 32 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 10%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 15 of 407 cases where SUB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 4%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SUB moved out of overbought territory on November 10, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 4 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 8%.

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 5 of 47 cases where SUB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 11%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SUB as a result. In 13 of 57 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 23%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SUB turned negative on November 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 8 of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 21%.

A.I.Advisor
a Summary for VTES with price predictions
Nov 11, 2026

VTES in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026

The 10-day moving average for VTES crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 1 of 9 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 11%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VTES as a result. In 2 of 43 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 5%.

VTES moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +0.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VTES advanced for three days, in 26 of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 10%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 13 of 198 cases where VTES Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 7%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 22 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

VTES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical Analysis
SUBVTES
RSI
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
8%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
15%
Stochastic
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
11%
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
8%
Momentum
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
23%
Bullish Trend 4 days ago
5%
MACD
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
21%
N/A
TrendWeek
ODDS (%)
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
24%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
9%
TrendMonth
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
6%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
5%
Advances
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 4 days ago
10%
Bullish Trend 7 days ago
10%
Declines
ODDS (%)
N/A
N/A
BollingerBands
ODDS (%)
N/A
Bearish Trend 1 day ago
11%
Aroon
ODDS (%)
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
4%
Bullish Trend 1 day ago
7%
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