Badger Meter (BMI) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Analysts expect Q1 2026 EPS of $1.23, down 5.5% from $1.30 in Q1 2025.
• Revenue consensus stands at $231.4 million, implying 4.1% growth year-over-year.
• Company guided for lower H1 2026 growth due to delayed AMI (advanced metering infrastructure) project starts, following Q4 2025 revenue miss.
• Long-term outlook remains high single-digit sales growth with margin expansion over five years.
• Stock down nearly 13% YTD after Q4 miss, with recent analyst upgrades signaling potential rebound.
• Investors watching software revenue growth and Puerto Rico PRASA project ramp-up.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Badger Meter (BMI), a leader in smart water metering and analytics solutions, faces heightened scrutiny for its first quarter 2026 earnings on April 17. After delivering record full-year 2025 sales of $916.7 million (up 11% YoY) and diluted EPS of $4.79 (up 13%), the Q4 revenue miss to $220.7 million triggered an 11% stock drop, underscoring sensitivity to project timing in its utility water segment. This report matters as it will clarify if H1 softness from delayed AMI deployments persists amid robust long-term demand from aging infrastructure upgrades and regulatory pushes for water conservation. For investors, insights into SaaS recurring revenue, margin trends, and the massive Puerto Rico PRASA project (1.6 million connections) could signal sustained growth in a market projected to expand with municipal funding.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street anticipates Badger Meter to report Q1 2026 revenue of $231.4 million, a 4.1% increase from $222.2 million in Q1 2025, driven by steady utility water demand and SmartCover contributions post its January 2025 acquisition. Consensus EPS is pegged at $1.23 per share (11 analysts), reflecting a 5.5% decline from $1.30 last year, factoring in project pacing headwinds noted in Q4 guidance.

Historically, BMI has shown volatility: Q1 2025 EPS beat by 23% ($1.30 vs. $1.05 est.), Q2 missed by 7% ($1.17 vs. $1.25), Q3 beat by 5% ($1.19 vs. $1.14), and Q4 slightly missed (-1.5%, $1.14 vs. $1.16). Key metrics to watch include gross margins (normalized 39-42%), operating margins (20%+ in FY2025), and SaaS revenue growth (27% YoY in 2025). Guidance updates on the PRASA project and H1 vs. H2 weighting will be pivotal, as management reaffirmed high single-digit top-line growth over five years despite near-term lumpiness.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Heading into Q1 earnings, sentiment is cautious yet optimistic. Shares are down nearly 13% YTD at around $154, reflecting Q4 revenue disappointment and H1 2026 slowdown fears from AMI project delays. Recent Baird upgrade to Outperform ($173 PT) and expanded buyback authorization lifted shares 7.5%, countering negativity. Risks include further project slips or margin pressure from input costs, but strong free cash flow ($170M in 2025) and backlog support resilience. Consensus rating leans Hold with $179 average PT (14% upside).

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Badger Meter's long-term trajectory hinges on executing its five-year high single-digit sales growth plan, bolstered by a growing cellular AMI base and BlueEdge software adoption. The Puerto Rico PRASA project—one of the largest AMI rollouts globally—looms as a major catalyst, though timing remains variable.

In the near term, watch H1 project pacing: Management flagged lower base revenue growth early 2026 due to delayed multi-year turnkey deployments, potentially pressuring Q1/Q2 results. Recurring SaaS revenue (up 27% in 2025 to ~$74M) offers stability, as does SmartCover integration enhancing stormwater analytics.

Operational levers include gross margin defense (39-42% normalized amid commodity headwinds) and operating margin expansion via volume leverage and mix shift to high-margin software. Free cash flow conversion exceeding 100% of earnings supports dividends, buybacks, and M&A. Broader tailwinds like state revolving funds and infrastructure bills sustain utility demand, but investors should track funding flows and international progress.

Upcoming Investor Day (May 21) may provide clearer multi-year visibility. Balanced execution here could reaffirm BMI's premium valuation.

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