Carrier Global (CARR) Earnings Date & Reports

Carrier delivered Q1 2026 net sales of $5,341 million, a 2% increase from $5,218 million in the prior year, with organic sales down 1% offset by 3% favorable foreign exchange. This topped analyst expectations of $5.01 billion. GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations was $0.28, down from $0.47, while adjusted EPS of $0.57 beat consensus of $0.51.

Adjusted operating profit fell 30% to $594 million (margin 11.1%, down 520 basis points), impacted by lower volumes and input costs. Segment highlights: Climate Solutions Americas sales down 3% to $2,501 million (residential -12%, light commercial +9%); Europe up 11% to $1,293 million; Asia Pacific flat organically at $834 million; Transportation up 10% to $713 million. Total orders rose 11%, led by commercial HVAC +35%.

The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance, noting a $250 million revenue headwind from the pending Riello divestiture (closing Q2 end). Free cash flow was negative $15 million due to seasonal working capital, but full-year outlook holds at ~$2 billion.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Post-earnings, CARR shares rallied sharply, surging up to 9.5% in pre-market trading on April 30 and closing higher around $67 amid strong volume. Investors cheered the earnings beat, robust commercial HVAC and data center order growth, and reaffirmed guidance, offsetting margin concerns from residential softness and costs. Sentiment turned positive, with focus on backlog visibility for high-growth areas like data centers, though some caution lingers on macro risks and China exposure.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Carrier reaffirmed its full-year 2026 outlook, guiding to approximately $22 billion in sales (organic flat to low-single-digit growth), $3.4 billion adjusted operating profit, $2.80 adjusted EPS, and $2 billion free cash flow. This assumes FX tailwind of 1% and a net 1% drag from acquisitions/divestitures, including the Riello exit creating a $250 million headwind. Management highlighted pricing actions to counter $400-450 million in input costs from tariffs and fuel.

Key watchpoints include data center execution, with backlog covering the $1.5 billion sales target and ramp expected in H2. Commercial HVAC aims for sixth straight year of double-digit growth. Residential recovery in North America and Europe will depend on housing trends and inventory normalization.

Broader dynamics: Monitor China residential/light commercial weakness, aftermarket expansion via digital connectivity (up 25% in Q1), and heat pump demand from electrification. Free cash flow conversion remains critical for ongoing ~$500 million quarterly shareholder returns. Upcoming Q2 earnings (late July) will provide updates on divestiture close and H1 momentum.

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