ON Semiconductor (ON) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• onsemi (ON) reports third-quarter results for the period ended October 2, 2026, after market close on Monday, November 2, 2026.
• Management guided revenue of $1.65 billion to $1.75 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.81 to $0.93, with midpoints above Wall Street consensus.
• AI data center revenue is the central growth narrative, with management expecting the segment to more than double in 2026.
• Consensus estimates sit near $1.67 billion in revenue and roughly $0.83 to $0.84 in adjusted EPS, below the midpoint of company guidance.
• Investors are watching gross margin, silicon carbide (SiC) traction, and whether the stock can reverse its negative post-earnings drift from the prior quarter.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

onsemi's third-quarter report is a key checkpoint in the company's ongoing recovery from a semiconductor downcycle. After seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year automotive revenue declines, the company returned to growth in the first half of 2026, lifted by accelerating demand for power management chips in AI data centers. The results will test whether that momentum is durable and whether onsemi's portfolio shift toward higher-value power and sensing products can keep driving margin expansion. For investors, the print offers a read on broader semiconductor demand signals across automotive, industrial, and data center end-markets, making it a closely watched event for the entire chip sector.

Earnings Expectations

For the fiscal third quarter ending October 2, 2026, onsemi has guided revenue between $1.65 billion and $1.75 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin of 40% to 42% and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.81 to $0.93. The revenue midpoint of roughly $1.70 billion is above the analyst consensus of about $1.67 billion, while the EPS midpoint of approximately $0.87 also sits above consensus estimates near $0.83 to $0.84, according to LSEG data.

The company's guidance, issued alongside its second-quarter results on August 3, 2026, reflects confidence that demand is firming. In Q2, onsemi delivered revenue of $1.60 billion, up 9.2% year over year, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.74, up 39.6% year over year. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 39.3%. Key metrics to watch this quarter include manufacturing utilization, gross margin trajectory, silicon carbide revenue growth in China automotive, and the pace of AI data center bookings.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Sentiment heading into the report is cautiously optimistic. onsemi shares rose about 5% following its second-quarter print in early August, helped by a sharp improvement in free cash flow and above-consensus guidance. However, the stock has since experienced a negative post-earnings drift, with some trackers noting a roughly 15% drift since the August release, suggesting investors have priced in elevated expectations around AI data center growth. The primary risk factors are a still-uneven automotive market, softness in parts of the industrial segment, and the possibility that margin expansion falls short of the ambitious 40% to 42% gross margin range. A stronger-than-expected AI data center update or an upward revision to full-year commentary could shift sentiment quickly.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Following the third-quarter report, investors should focus on several forward-looking signals. First, management's commentary on AI data center revenue will be critical, given the expectation that the business more than doubles in 2026. Any update on customer wins, power-tree content, or silicon carbide traction in AI infrastructure will shape near-term sentiment.

Second, gross margin progression matters. Management has guided sequential margin expansion through the year, so confirmation that non-GAAP gross margin can sustain the 40% to 42% range—and eventually move higher—will be closely scrutinized.

Third, watch the automotive and industrial end-markets. China automotive silicon carbide revenue is expected to grow 60% to 70% in 2026, while energy storage systems are projected to grow roughly 40%. Both represent meaningful growth vectors that could offset weakness in traditional industrial demand.

Finally, monitor utilization rates, inventory levels, and capital spending. With full-year capex now expected to remain below 5% of revenue, investors will look for confirmation that onsemi can generate strong free cash flow while supporting growth, which underpins its aggressive share repurchase program.

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