ON stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Onsemi is a supplier of power semiconductors and sensors focused on the automotive and industrial markets... Show more
ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Analysis: AI Data Center Growth Anchors a Cyclical Rebound
Key Takeaways
- onsemi shares closed near $71.67 in late October, down roughly 6.8% over the trailing 30 days after a brief early-October rally toward $86.
- Second-quarter revenue rose 9% year over year to about $1.6 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin expanding to 39.3%.
- AI data center demand remains the company's fastest-growing market, and management expects that revenue to more than double in 2026.
- Third-quarter guidance called for revenue of $1.65–$1.75 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.81–$0.93.
- The planned Synaptics acquisition and the "Fab Right" manufacturing divestitures are reshaping the company's footprint and cost structure.
- Near-term trading is being shaped by semiconductor cyclical-recovery sentiment and accelerating demand for AI power-delivery solutions.
- For additional context, explore onsemi's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Explore Tickeron's Trending AI Robots for automated trading ideas.
Current Market Snapshot
ON Semiconductor (onsemi) has traded in a wide range in recent weeks. After rising from the mid-$70s to a high near $86 in early October, the stock gave back those gains and closed near $71.67 at the end of October. Over the trailing 30 days, that represents a decline of roughly 6.8%, a move that still leaves the stock within its broader multi-month trading band. The pullback reflects a mix of profit-taking after a sharp rally, ongoing debate over the pace of the automotive and industrial recovery, and rotation within the semiconductor sector. At the same time, the company's AI data center momentum and improving margins continue to provide fundamental support for the longer-term narrative.
ON Semiconductor (ON) Business Overview and Competitive Position
ON Semiconductor Corporation, known as onsemi, is a Scottsdale, Arizona-based semiconductor manufacturer focused on intelligent power and sensing technologies. The company operates through three reportable segments: the Power Solutions Group (PSG), the Analog & Mixed Signal Group (AMG), and the Intelligent Sensing Group (ISG). Its portfolio spans silicon carbide (EliteSiC), MOSFETs, IGBTs, image sensors, and gallium nitride power solutions marketed under the GaNEXUS brand.
Automotive is the company's largest end market, accounting for more than half of revenue, followed by industrial applications and a rapidly growing AI data center segment. onsemi competes with analog and power peers such as Texas Instruments (TXN) and Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS). Its competitive strengths include leadership in silicon carbide for electric vehicles, a differentiated position in AI data center power delivery, and a leaner manufacturing model under its "Fab Right" strategy.
Recent Developments Driving ON
The most significant catalyst in the period was the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report. onsemi posted revenue of approximately $1.6 billion, up 6% sequentially and 9% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin of 39.3% and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.74. Free cash flow reached $425 million, and the company repurchased $332 million of shares during the quarter.
AI data center demand was the standout driver. Management highlighted an expanded role in Nvidia's (NVDA) MGX ecosystem, power-supply platform wins with Great Wall, and design wins supporting Amazon Web Services power-supply and battery-backup systems. The company expects silicon carbide revenue in AI data center applications to grow nearly 60% year over year in 2026, and total AI data center revenue to more than double.
Strategically, onsemi announced an agreement to acquire Synaptics (SYNA), expected to close in mid-2027, and disclosed divestitures of its Tarlac, Philippines and Mountain Top, Pennsylvania manufacturing facilities under the Fab Right program. These moves are intended to concentrate production in higher-efficiency facilities and generate roughly $35 million in annual cost savings once fully realized. The stock's October volatility followed these catalysts, with shares spiking on AI momentum before retreating alongside broader semiconductor-sector swings.
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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Several forward-looking factors will shape onsemi's trajectory through the remainder of 2026. First, investors are focused on the third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance, with the company having guided third-quarter revenue to $1.65–$1.75 billion and non-GAAP EPS to $0.81–$0.93. Confirmation that AI data center revenue is tracking toward management's expectation of more than doubling in 2026 will be a key barometer of the growth story.
Beyond AI, watch silicon carbide adoption in automotive, including the company's outlook for 60%–70% growth in China automotive silicon carbide revenue, as well as energy-storage-system revenue, which management expects to rise roughly 40% in 2026. Margin progression remains central, with higher factory utilization and price increases intended to offset rising input costs. Key risks include competition in analog and power semiconductors, supply constraints, softness in traditional industrial and automotive demand, and the execution of the Synaptics integration and manufacturing divestitures. These dynamics, rather than any single data point, will determine whether the recent cyclical rebound extends further.
Disclaimer
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ON's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ON moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ON just turned positive on November 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where ON's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 47 of 60 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +5.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ON advanced for three days, in 220 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
ON may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ON as a result. In 86 of 98 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
ON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ON crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Aroon Indicator for ON entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.414) is normal, around the industry mean (5.443). P/E Ratio (41.110) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.640). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.169) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.337) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of semiconductors
Industry Semiconductors